Is Everybody Really Leaving Michigan?

1. Is Everybody Really Leaving Michigan? • Presentation for the Michigan Chamber of Commerce • September 27, 2007 • Kenneth Darga, State Demographer • Department of History, Arts, and Libraries

2. Michigan’s migration patterns have some negative aspects and some positive aspects. • The negative aspects of Michigan’s migration patterns are often overstated. • The positive aspects are often overlooked.

3. The Bad News: • The number of people moving out of Michigan is larger than the number of people moving into Michigan.

6. 1-Year

9. Domestic Migration Ratios ( OUT : IN ) • 66 : 34 United Van Lines • 58 : 42 Internal Revenue Service • 58 : 42 American Community Survey • 66 : 34 ACS (age 55-64) • 52 : 48 ACS (age 27-34)

10. Six Lowest Rates of Out-Migration in the U.S. for 2004-05 • 1.8% Texas • 1.8% Wisconsin • 1.8% Pennsylvania • 1.9% Michigan • 2.0% Ohio • 2.1% California

11. 7 of the 11 lowest rates of out-migration in 2005 were in Great Lakes states.

12. Michigan had the nation’s lowest rate of out-migraton in 2000, 2002, 2003, and 2004

14. In 2005, Michigan had the nation’s second lowest rate of outmigration (behind Texas) for persons age 27-34

15. Rankings of Michigan’s Out-Migration Rates by Age, 2000-05 • Age 1 – 5 #1 Age 35 – 44 #1 • Age 6 – 12 #2 Age 45 – 54 #6 • Age13 – 17 #1 Age 55 – 54 #12 • Age 18 – 21 #3 Age 55 – 64 #29 • Age 22 – 26 #3 Age 65 – 74 #19 • Age 27 – 34 #1

17. The only states with lower domestic in-migration than Michigan are New York and California.

18. Out-Migration Rates for Labor Force Participants Age 22-34, 2000-2005 Mich.U.S. No Degree 2.1% 3.5% Associate’s Degree 1.5% 3.8% Bachelor’s Degree 5.8% 7.0% Master’s Degree 5.8% 7.7% Professional Degree 6.1% 8.8% Doctoral Degree 9.2% 13.3% All Levels of Education 3.1% 4.6% All Degrees 4.9% 6.5% Bachelor’s and Higher 5.9% 7.3%

19. Estimated Average Migration Flows, 2000-2005 College graduates age 22-34 in labor force: • 24,248 out-flow to other states • 24,897 in-flow from other states • 4,616 in-flow from other countries • 49 : 51 ratio of domestic out-movers to domestic in-movers

20. Unemployment Trends in Michigan

21. Our recent unemployment statistics have negative aspects, but those aspects are often overstated. • Positive aspects of our recent unemployment statistics are often overlooked.

23. Michigan’s estimated unemployment rate in 2006 was 6.9%. • The average from 1976 to 2006 is just over 7.9%.

24. WV AK MI LA OR MS NJ NE HI IA MN NH ND OK SD WY

26. State Unemployment Rates in 2006Relative to Michigan # of States % of Pop. Within 2 pct-pt: 16 40% Including: Ohio, Indiana, Texas, and California Within 3 pct-pt: 35 81% Including: Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, North Carolina, Georgia

27. Overlooked aspects of Michigan’s unemployment rate: • It has not gone up since 2003. • It is lower than Michigan’s average from 1976 to 2006. • It is a little bit closer than usual to the lowest rate in the nation.

28. That does not change the fact that the estimated unemployment rate for Michigan is: • Higher than anyone wants it to be. • Higher than in any other state. But it does help explain why Michigan’s migration patterns are better than they are usually portrayed to be in the media.