Implementation of the Water Framework Directive - Uncertainty issues -

1. Michiel Blind, RWS-RIZA Implementationof theWater Framework Directive- Uncertainty issues -

2. Three key messages • Including uncertainty is recommended, even required by the Water Framework Directive • What is stated in the legal text and supporting documents? • Uncertainty is a fact of (WFD) life • Several examples of uncertainties at various stages of the implementation • HarmoniRiB’s products support integrated uncertainty assessment • Few examples of HarmoniRiB case studies

3. Message # 1 Including uncertainty is recommended, even required by the Water Framework Directive Based on: Blind and de Blois within HarmoniRiB Siegel within HarmoniRiB

4. WFD legal document • section 1.3: (iv) [reference network] The network shall contain a sufficient number of sites of high status to provide a sufficient level of confidence about the values for the reference conditions, given the variability in the values of the quality elements corresponding to high ecological status for that surface water body type and the modelling techniques which are to be applied under paragraph (v). • (Research) Questions: • What is a sufficient level of confidence? • … and how to determine than the sufficient number of sites? • Who determines this?

5. WFD legal document • section 1.3: (v) Type-specific biological reference conditions based on modelling may be derived using either predictive models or hindcasting methods. The methods […] shall provide a sufficient level of confidence about the values for the reference conditions […] • (Research) Questions: • What is a sufficient level of confidence? • Who determines this?

6. CIS guidelines • You will need to complete the first analyses, using appropriate estimates for pressures and impacts but you should be aware, and take account, of the uncertainties in the environmental conditions […] (IMPRESS) • In brief, uncertainties in classification need to explicitly address the question of “what is the probability that a site is assigned to the wrong class?” (RefCond) • “Uncertainty on costs, effectiveness and time-lagged effects of measures needs to be dealt with throughout the economic analysis process, […]” (WATECO) • (Research) Questions: • Which uncertainties need to be included? • How do you determine uncertainties and probabilities? • Which costs need to be included?

7. CIS Guidelines • “… the required positional accuracy for the reporting is set to a minimum of 1000 meters […] in the short-term, while at the same time it is strongly recommended to strive for a positional accuracy of 125 meters […] in the long-term.“ (GIS) • “compliance with good groundwater chemical status shall be demonstrated by the upper confidence limit of the arithmetic mean (AM) with a confidence level of 1-alpha of 95 %” (GWD)

8. CIS Guidelines • Look out! Risk assessment is one of the main tool of the river basin planning process (Proclan)

9. ConclusionsIncluding uncertainty is recommended, even required by the Water Framework Directive • WFD legal text requires dealing with uncertainties & risks • CIS guidance documents recommend dealing with uncertainty, risk and models • However: • “Given our current WFD ambition we do not need al these details, given that we exactly know what is required” (oral communication with a water manager) • Uncertainty about EC’s position regarding enforcing these requirements (political uncertainty)

10. Message # 2 Uncertainty is a fact of (WFD) life Based on: Brouwer, R., Uncertainties in the economic analysis of the European Water Framework Directive, HarmoniRiB, 2005

11. Role of economics in the WFD cycle(WATECO, 2002)

12. Uncertainty in the basin characterisationReallocating Gross Regional Product • Mismatch between administrative boundaries

13. Example sources from the national emission registration Recreational shipping Traffic Atmospheric depositions Economic sectors Agriculture Industry Service Uncertainty allocating emissions to economic sectors

14. Chemical industry Scheldt Population growth Scheldt Arable land Scheldt Baseline and future scenario’s(trends in supply and demand)

15. Scenario’s: Other uncertainties • Technological uncertainties • What will tomorrow bring? • How fast will technology be taken up? • Political uncertainties • What is the prevailing policy? • What changes if times change to the better or the worse?

16. Not identified = unknown… Estimated relative contribution of pollution source to overall bacteriological bathing water contamination Uncertainty in cost effective programmes of measuresuncertainty in cause - effect Ignorance?

17. Uncertainty in cost effectiveness of individual measures • Uncertainty in dose-effect relationships • Uncertainty in costs • Social uncertainty (effects on different actors, acceptance, behaviour) • Political uncertainty • Undesired political side-effects • Time needed for implementation

18. Uncertainty in cost effectiveness of individual measures

19. Message # 2Uncertainty is a fact of (WFD) life • Demonstrated • Spatial reallocation problems • Sectoral allocation problems • Scenario’s • Cause-effect • Cost effectiveness • Other • Political uncertainty, e.g. policy choices on cost recovery • Planning process uncertainties, e.g. involvement of stakeholders • Social / behavioural uncertainty • Raw data uncertainty • Integrated uncertainty • …

20. Message # 3 HarmoniRiB’s products support integrated uncertainty assessment

21. HarmoniRiB’s key products • Comprehensive guidelines regarding assessment of data uncertainty • Comprehensive software to assess and work with data uncertainties • A database that can hold uncertainties • Various methodological documents: • Uncertainty & models • Uncertainty in scaling • Framing the decision making problem • 8 case studies of integrated uncertainty assessment

22. Case study example - Geropotamou • Some pictures

23. Geropotamou past and futureBusiness as usual scenario

24. Regge effects for different types of hydrological years N summer averaged concentration for reduction of fertilisation and WWTP discharges

25. Regge: 2015 results Important: Study purpose is proof of concept / testing

26. Message # 3HarmoniRiB’s products support integrated uncertainty assessment Examples provided all used: Uncertainty guidance Data uncertainty engine HarmoniRiB database Relate to WFD issues …

27. Concluding remarks • Three key messages • Including uncertainty is recommended, even required by the Water Framework Directive • Uncertainty is a fact of (WFD) life • HarmoniRiB’s products support integrated uncertainty assessment • The reality…

28. Thank you