American Perceptions of Protecting Weaker States

1. American Perceptions of Protecting Weaker States Pren-Tsilya Boa pb5857a@american.edu Web site: http://eagle1.american.edu/~pb5857a/ American University School of International ServiceSIS-600-5: Int'l Affairs Stats & Methods – Dr. AssenAssenov

2. Research Question & Research hypothesis Research Questions: Does income, gender, age, party affiliation affect the perceived level of importance of U.S. protection of weaker nations against foreign aggression? Research hypothesis: The political outlook is the strongest factor in perceiving high levels of importance for protecting weaker states.

3. Background Info • Theory and Findings #1 • Theory: Protecting weaker states enhances national security. • Findings: “powerful states have an incentive based on self-interest, as well as a positive responsibility, to assist weak states. If states want to create an international system that helps them protect the territory within each of their borders, they need the cooperation of all states.” • Theory and Findings #2 • Theory: Combating international terrorism undermines state sovereignty. • Findings: “It is only in adhering to a rule-based international system and responsible sovereignty that the United States gains legitimacy and the ability to seek reciprocal behavior by others.” Managing Global Insecurity, Brookings Institute, 2008

4. Data • Unit of analysis/study: individual • Source of the data: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Conducted by Knowledge Networks for Chicago Council on Foreign Relations • Dependent variable: Nominal • Y is Level of Importance of Protecting Weaker States • 0= Somewhat Important 1=Very Important • Independent Variables • X1 is Political Outlook: (Nominal) 1=Republican, 3=Democrat • X2 is Gender: (Nominal) 1=Male, 2=Female • X3 is Household Income: (Ordinal) Dollar earnings • X4 is Age: (Ordinal) 1=18-29, 2=30-44, 3=45-59, 4=60+

5. Gender, Age, & Level of Importance Descriptive Statistics • Missing data: Not Important category combined with Somewhat Important Category. “Refused” answers removed 0= Somewhat Important 1=Very Important 1=male,2=Female

6. Political Outlook & Income Descriptive Statistics Political Outlook Freq. Percent Valid% Republican 444 43.2 53.4 Democrat 388 37.8 46.6 Total 832 81.0 100.0 Missing Refused 16 1.6 Independent/Other 179 17.4 Total195 19.0 Total 1027 100.0 Mean

7. Analysis of Variables Dependent Variable: Level of Importance (o= Somewhat Important, 1=Very Important)

8. Probit Analysis Marginal Effects Importance of Protecting Weaker States, 0= Somewhat Important 1=Very Important…. • Interpretations: • i)Model 1: level of significance of Gender is slightly above alpha=.05. Both in positive direction. Pseudo R2 is very low. • ii) Model 2: Income is statistically insignificant. Pseudo R2 has increased. N remains constant. • iii) Model 3: N is constant but Pseudo R2 is the highest of all three models. Political Outlook is statistically significant. Income is still does not meet alpha level=.05.

9. Findings & Policy Implications of the Research Findings: Accept Model 3. Party affiliation has the greatest affect on perception of importance of protecting weaker nations against foreign aggression. Policy Implications: Republican politicians are more likely to support international intervention. Policy should focus on educating Democrats specifically on the need to protect weaker states, how the U.S. respects sovereignty while protecting, and demonstrating that the state expressed the consent and desire for U.S. intervention.