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ECONOMIC AND EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES OF WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES, Slavica Penev Tirana, Albanian Parliament 13 March , 2013. ECONOMIC TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES. Western Balkans as a region 1. Relatively small and underdeveloped region Less than 20 million people
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ECONOMIC AND EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES OF WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES,Slavica PenevTirana, Albanian Parliament13 March, 2013
Western Balkans as a region1 • Relatively small and underdeveloped region • Less than 20 million people • GDP is 68.9 billion EUR (7% of EU10, 0.5% of EU27) • GDP in PPP p.c. 7850 EUR (49% of EU10, 31% of EU27 average) • Size, population and level of economic development vary among the countries of the region _________ 1 Western Balkans covers: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Kosovo*
Figure 1.1: Real GDP growth (in %) Strong economic growth in the pre crisis period, followed by sharp decline in 2009 and slow recovery after 2009
Figure 1.2: Current account deficit, 2007-2011 (% of GDP) The economic crisis resulted in the reduction of imports and current account deficits
Figure 1.3: External debt, 2007-2001 (% of GDP) • External debt recorded permanent growth in the pre-crisis period. • In spite of the reduced current account deficits in 2009 and 2010, foreign debt recorded further growth.
Figure 1.4: Fiscal balance, 2007-2011 (% of GDP) • In 2007, the region had budget surplus of 0.3%. • In 2009, the regional budget deficit averaged 4.9 due to extensive borrowing from the IMF and other IFIs • It remained below the average for CEEB (5.4%)
Figure 1.5: General government debt, 2007-2011 (% of GDP) • The general government debt increased from 37% of GDP in 2009 to 44% at the end of 2011 • Debt levels remain high compared to pre-crisis levels of around 30%
Figure 1.6: Inflows of FDI in Western Balkan countries, 2007-2011 (% of GDP) • FDI inflows strongly affected by the crisis. • In the pre-crisis period, FDI 5.688 mil. EUR in 2007 (9.3% of GDP). • in 2008 the region experienced a decrease in FDI inflows, mostly due to the impact of the global economic crisis.
Strengths and weaknesses – Albania Achieved level of macroeconomic stability
Strengths and weaknesses – Western Balkan countries Achieved level of macroeconomic stability
THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND COMPETITIVENESS OF THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES
Figure 2.1: World Bank Doing Business Rankings: 2009-2013 World Bank survey “Doing Business” is a comprehensive analysis of regulations and obstacles to starting, operating, and closing a business, compares the ease of doing business among more than 180 countries around the world
Table 2.1: World Bank Doing Business Rankings per dimension, 2012 Values better than the Western Balkans average are in red
Table 2.2: Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index, 2011 Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index measures the perceived levels of public sector corruption in more than 170 countries. 1 Values better than the Western Balkans average are in red
Table 2.3: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons in governance as well as monitoring progress over time 1 Values better than the Western Balkans average are in red
Figure 2.2: Global Competitiveness Index, overall ranking,2008/2009-2012/2013
Table 2.5: WEF Global Competitiveness pillars of competitiveness(rankings), 2012-2013 The 2012/13 rank is out of 144 countries. The lower the rank number, the better 1 Values better than the Western Balkans average are in red
Figure 2.3: The most problematic factors for doing business, 2012/13
Figure 2.4: Top three most problematic factors for doing business by country and region, WEFGCR, 2012/13
Strengths and weaknesses – Albania Business environment and competitiveness
Strengths and weaknesses – Western Balkan countries Business environment and competitiveness
Table 3.2: Institutional framework for regulatory reform in the Western Balkan countries
Table 3.3: Better regulation agenda – use of Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) in the government
Table 3.4: Better regulation agenda – use of regulatory quality tools related to the transparency in the legislation process
Strengths and weaknesses – Albania Regulatory Reform – Better and Smart Regulation Agenda
Strengths and weaknesses – Western Balkan countries Regulatory Reform – Better and Smart Regulation Agenda
THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES' PROGRESS IN TRANSITION IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EU INTEGRATION PROCESS
Strengths and weaknesses – Albania Progress in the EU integration process
Strengths and weaknesses – Western Balkans Progress in the EU integration process
3rd Copenhagen Criteria – Acceptance of the Community acquis Yellow - the country has the capacity to comply with the requirements of the acquis in the medium term; Orange – additional efforts are needed to align with the EU acquis and to implement it effectively in the medium term Brown - considerable and sustained efforts are needed to align with the EU acquis and to implement it effectively in the medium term.
CHAPTER V THE ROLE OF PARLIAMENTS IN THE REGULATORY REFORM AND ECONOMIC REFORMS PROCESS
Table 5.1: The structure of parliaments in Western Balkan countries
Table 5.2: Parliamentary oversight of the government activity
Table 5.3: Number of parliamentary committees in Western Balkan countries’ parliaments
Table 5.4: Parliamentary Committees for Economy and Finance in Western Balkan Countries
Table 5.8: Parliamentary research departments and experts in WBCs
Table 5.10: Use of better regulation: regulatory quality tools related to transparency in the legislation process in Western Balkan parliaments
