RenewableUK - Health and Safety 2012 1st February 2012 “ The use of scenarios to evaluate future health and safety issu

RenewableUK - Health and Safety 20121st February 2012“The use of scenarios to evaluate future health and safety issues for wind energy” John Reynolds john.reynolds@samiconsulting.co.uk www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Background • Project for European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA)http://osha.europa.eu • EU-OSHA’s role is to help improve working conditions in the European Union by providing technical, scientific and economic information to people involved in safety and health at work • Working with the UK Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) and Technopolis Group • Project – “Foresight of New and Emerging Risks to Occupational Safety and Health Associated with New Technologies in Green Jobs by 2020” www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Project scope • Phase 1 (completed): Identification of key drivers of contextual change that could shape green jobs over the next 10 years • Phase 2 (completed): Identification of key new technologies likely to impact on OSH in green jobs – negatively and positively • Phase 3 (June 2011- March 2012):Development of plausible and consistent scenarios on how the key new technologies may evolve in the context of the changes induced by the key drivers and create emerging risks in green jobs by 2020 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Key technologies • Wind Energy • Construction • Biotechnology/Bio-energy • Waste and recycling • Transport • Manufacturing and robotics • Energy • Domestic and small scale energy • Battery technology • Energy storage and recovery • Energy transmission Also horizontal technologies, e.g. nanomaterials www.samiconsulting.co.uk

What are scenarios? • Stories that describe how ‘the world’ might look in the future • Possible ‘paths’ to the future • Based on an analysis of drivers of change • Should be engaging, compelling and credible • Must have internal logic and consistency • Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated • Not predictions or forecasts www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Main Drivers of Future Change • Economic Growth • Growth In Europe • Global Growth rates • Green Culture and Values • Public Opinion • Government Incentives and controls • Energy Efficiency and Resource Use • Waste Management and Recycling • Rate of Innovation in Green technology www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Scenario axes www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Deep Green Strongly green culture and values Win - Win High Rate of Innovation in Green Technology Very Strong Green Values Bonus World Strong Growth Global and European Economic Growth Weak Low Growth High Growth www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Innovation Axis For Green Growth For Green Future For profit www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Deep Green Win - Win Very Strong Bonus World Green Values Economic Growth Weak Low Growth High Growth www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Win - Win Defined by • High economic growth • Strong Green Values • High rate of Innovation in Green Technologies www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Win - Win • Green growth is sustainable. • Green activities are seen as a major contribution to economic growth rather than simply as a cost • Technology is delivering on its promise to make green growth achievable. www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Strong Green Values • Growing public concerns over climate change and other environmental threats • Mandate for deeply green legislation • Green behaviour is strongly approved of • Better models show how vulnerable the human race will be to climate change and the loss of ecosystems services. www.samiconsulting.co.uk

High Innovation in Green Technology • The trajectory of technology accelerates • More and more young engineers and scientists qualify around the world, • Developments are propagated immediately • Technology has made green growth achievable. Most innovations use fewer resources and less pollution. • Energy science continues to deliver • The path to a zero-carbon future is now clear www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Occupational Safety and Health • Higher investments in safety and health • Funds available to make infrastructure and business processes safer and more accessible. • Environmental hazards are seen by society as of particular concern • Many all-new green processes and enterprises, most of which require new OSH procedures and training www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Occupational Safety and Health • New jobs and new products may bring new hazards and risks at an ever-increasing speed. • Rapid roll-out of new technologies and products mean that wider population may be exposed to any new hazards and risks in shorter timescales. • OSH assessments needs to be done ever earlier in product development cycles • in order to catch issues before they have been rolled out globally. • High pace of innovation is transforming the nature of work, with an equally transformative potential effect on OSH. www.samiconsulting.co.uk

www.samiconsulting.co.uk

WIN-WIN The solar powered office buildings needed a lot of cleaning

Bonus World Defined by • High economic growth • Weak Green Values • Medium rate of Innovation in Green Technology (directed towards profits) www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Bonus World • People will choose the route of increased prosperity • when faced with the costs of going green. • Technology is helping the world to be more efficient in its use of resources • but this efficiency merely translates into increased consumption • Carbon emissions and resource use are still rising. • High resource price stimulate increased supply www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Medium Innovation in Green Technology • Technology continues to advance, driven by the profit motive • High levels of overall innovation • High growth allows capital-intensive inventions to be implemented quickly. • Energy sciences continue to deliver, • but it is not clear how or whether a zero-carbon future can be achieved without unacceptable compromises www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Occupational Safety and Health • Funds available to make infrastructure and business processes safer and more accessible. • Rapid roll-out of new technologies / products • wider population exposed in shorter timescales. • OSH is of relatively low priority for most governments. • New jobs and new products may bring new hazards and risks. • OSH is seen by most employers as important in term of its impact on profits • OSH by regulation may be more effective than OSH by education www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Deep Green Defined by • Low economic growth • Strong Green Values • Medium rate of Innovation in Green Technologies www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Deep Green • A Green economy is achievable • but at the cost of economic growth. • Sustainability and Greenness are valued by people more than economic growth • Green activities are seen as a cost that needs to be borne. • High taxes on pollution and carbon emissions • Technology is helping to deliver a green future www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Strongly Green Values • Growing public concern over climate change and other environmental threats • Mandate for green legislation • Green behaviour is strongly approved of • Better models show how vulnerable the human race may be to climate change and the loss of ecosystems services • Repeated resource shortages reinforce the need to be green www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Medium Innovation in Green Technology • Technology continues to advance, driven by a desire to achieve sustainability • Restricted levels of capital investment restrict the adoption of capital-intensive innovations • Energy sciences continue to deliver • but it is now clear that low economic growth is necessary to achieve a zero-carbon future www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Occupational Safety and Health • Low growth may tempt employers to cut corners and makes investing in safer and healthier infrastructure more difficult • Slower roll-out of some new technologies and new products gives more time to assimilate new hazards and new risks. • Many all-new green processes and enterprises, all of which require new OSH procedures and training • Environmental hazards are seen by society as of particular concern www.samiconsulting.co.uk

Health and Safety Conclusions • New and emerging risk in each scenario are a combination of the different social and economic conditions with the respective technology pathway • Scenarios have provided a framework for discussion between experts in technology and health and safety – leading to new insights • Realisation that some technology pathways and targets are particularly scenario dependant • Main health and safety implications to be reviewed at European workshop in March www.samiconsulting.co.uk

RenewableUK - Health and Safety 2012 1st February 2012 “ The use of scenarios to evaluate future health and safety issu