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Carbon Modeling and Spatial-Temporal Linkages in Forestry and Land Use Change

This discussion explores sector linkages and spatial-temporal relationships in carbon modeling for forestry and land use change. It addresses research gaps, necessary model linkages, sensitivity measurement, and appropriate scales for model outputs.

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Carbon Modeling and Spatial-Temporal Linkages in Forestry and Land Use Change

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  1. Forestry and Land use Change: National Economic Models Reporting Emission Mitigation Results Discussion Topics: Steve McNulty The next generation in carbon modeling • Sector Linkages • Spatial Linkages • Temporal Linkages

  2. Sector Linkages Simple Linkages • one directional (i.e. no feedback) • few sectors Example: Forest Productivity run for 100 years and used as input to forest value projections Complex Linkages • Multi-directional (i.e., with feedback) • several sectors interacting Example: next slide

  3. The next generation in carbon modeling • Sector Linkages • Temporal Linkages

  4. Temporal Linkages • Fine scale (< monthly) • Detailed process level • Short time frame and/or small spatial area • Increased aggregation sensitivity • Coarse scale (> monthly) • Empirical or lumped parameter modeling • Long time frame and/or large spatial area • Reduced aggregation sensitivity

  5. The next generation in carbon modeling • Sector Linkages • Temporal Linkages - Spatial Linkages

  6. Spatial Linkages with a biophysical Modeling example Watershed scale Leaf x tree x stand density x area Tree variables Light extinction coefficient Leaf area index Root mass Carbon allocation Etc… Leaf variables Chloroplast amino acid conc Vapor pressure deficit Photo active radiation Stomatal conductance Etc… Regional Scale Ecosystem x area Ecosystem Average Foliar %N Air temperature Precipitation

  7. Group Discussion Topics Question: To better understand and forecast alternative carbon Sequestration and mitigation strategies • What are the key research gaps in temporal and spatial scaling within a sector? 2) What key inputs and outputs need to be transferred between sector models to allow model linkages? • How should multi-sector sensitivity be measured? 4) What is the appropriate temporal and spatial scale for linked model outputs?

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