1 / 20

Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation

Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation. Michael Obersteiner. GLOBIOM Global Biosphere (Optimization) Model. AGRICULTURE. FOREST. OTHER. =. DEMAND. SUPPLY. Livestock. Bioenergy. Forest Products. Ind.Roundwood Firewood Biomass 4 Energy. 60 Crops

liseli
Download Presentation

Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Land Use: Globally consistent national mitigation and adaptation Michael Obersteiner

  2. GLOBIOM Global Biosphere (Optimization) Model AGRICULTURE FOREST OTHER = DEMAND SUPPLY Livestock Bioenergy Forest Products Ind.Roundwood Firewood Biomass 4 Energy 60 Crops 6 Input Systems Modèles biophysiques G4M EPIC Land (type de sol, altitude, inclinaison, climat,système d’exploitation)

  3. Globally Consistent REDD++

  4. Presentation of the model • With a focus on Congo Basin • 1550 Simulation Units from10*10km to 50*50 km • Detailed infrastructure network Global coverage • 28 regions • Endogenous prices • Bilateral trade flows

  5. Model application Simulation horizon: 2000–2030 Scenarios • Biofuels • Mead • Technological change • Infrastructure improvement Sensitivity analysis : REDD policy • 50%, 75%, 90% reduction of global deforestation compared to the situation Business As Usual (BAU)

  6. Model application • Infrastructure scenario Transport time with completed Trans-African Road network Transport time with existing infrastructure Scenario Average = 40 hours Average = 23 hours

  7. Deforestation after infrastructure improvement [1000 ha/SimU/10 years] I: Regional zooming - CongoBIOM Green = low Red = high

  8. Deforestation Impact • Deforested area in Congo Basin in 2030 (Mio. Ha)

  9. Marginal REDD++ costs

  10. Food Security • Crop price index

  11. Global Mitigation and Trade

  12. Mitigation through Yield Improvements • Input neutral yield growth • Plant material • Pest and disease management • Input based yield growth • Subsistence, extensive, intensive, irrigated intensive • Productivity gains by geographic allocation of production • Trade

  13. REDD+ and Agriculture based Mitigation 100% 71% 52% 41%

  14. Global Wheat Trade 2050 % of Baseline % of total production

  15. Crop Price Index

  16. Bioenergy & Mitigation

  17. Global Energy Portfolio – 1.5-2DG target Source: Azar et al. 2010

  18. Bioelectricity from CHP Heat&Cooking 2ndGennTransportfuels

  19. Impact of BiofuelsMarginal Analysis - 2050 100%

  20. Challenges • Embodied technology transfer through FDI • International capital transfer • Trade liberalization • Get supply chains climate smarter such that funding reaches the ground improved agricultural practices (e.g. roundtables and certification [CGF]) => lower prices and price volatility • more environmental services not only GHGs • adaptation co-benefits

More Related