Water Resource Information and Predictions

1. Water Resource Information and Predictions Gary M. Carter NOAA’s Hydrology Program Manager November 4, 2003 NOAA SAB

2. Annual Guidance Memorandum “Sound decision making by others depends on NOAA’s ability to deliver information needed for objective analysis of alternatives” Improve Water Resource Information: Water managers expect freshwater shortages in the near future, and coastal water resources are continually stressed. Freshwater and estuary transition-zone information, beyond the current state of the art, is required to meet these challenges. We should integrate NOAA’s collaborative research, data, and operations to generate products and services to help water resource managers. NOAA SAB

3. Water Resource Information • What? Analyses and forecasts of precipitation, snowpack, soil moisture and temperature (surface and subsurface), evaporation, and streamflow provided in high resolution, gridded formats for periods of hours to years • Why? Improve the sustainability of irrigated agriculture; environmental restoration; enhance aquatic habitats; support organizational arrangements to distribute water; optimize reservoir operations • How do we know? 2002 NWS Hydrologic Services Review and Customer Workshops; 2001 NRC Report “Envisioning the Agenda for Water Resources Research in the 21st Century”; routine customer feedback to NOAA’s River Forecast Centers NOAA SAB

4. NOAA’s Strategic Goals • Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem- based management ** • Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond ** • Serve society’s needs for weather and water information *** • Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation * • Improve water resource information **** NOAA SAB

5. NOAA Programs for Goal 3 Weather and Water (FY 2003 - $812M) Local Forecasts and WarningsTropical Storm PredictionSpace WeatherHydrology – Rivers, Lakes, and FloodsAir QualityEnvironmental ModelingWeather and Water Science and Technology Infusion NOAA SAB

6. Hydrology Program(FY 2003 - $35M) • River Forecast Centers (RFCs; 57%) • Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) • Office of Hydrologic Development • Office of Services Hydrologic Services Division • Susquehanna Flood System • North Carolina Flood Mapping NOAA SAB

7. Hydrology Program Baseline Assessment • RFCs produce valuable information to meet the basic hydrologic service needs for a wide variety of partners and customers • AHPS is necessary to provide forecast uncertainly information, augment service delivery capabilities, and modernize the operational infrastructure • Program leverages NOAA’s satellites, radar data, weather observation networks, atmospheric models, and climate predictions, but is constrained by hydrologic data, state of the science, and personnel resources NOAA SAB

8. 100% Requirement for NOAA’s Hydrology Program • Integrate NOAA’s freshwater science and technology assets • Assimilate all available observational data • Fully utilize NOAA’s more accurate and higher resolution weather and climate forecasts • Routinely predict low flow conditions for seasonal to interannual periods • Provide flood forecast mapping as warranted • Produce streamflow, soil moisture/temperature, and snowdepth grids for NOAA’s National Digital Forecast Database • Forecast water quality (e.g., normal or low oxygen content) nationwide for water resource decision makers • Transform RFCs into NOAA’s Water Resource Service Centers NOAA SAB

9. Potential NOAA Collaborators(Water Resource Science Steering Team formed inAugust; led by OAR) • OAR - Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Severe Storms Laboratory, Environmental Technology Laboratory, Office of Global Programs, Climate Diagnostics Center • NOS - Coastal Services Center, Coast Survey Development Laboratory • NESDIS - Office of Research and Applications • NWS - Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, Climate Prediction Center, Weather Forecast Offices NOAA SAB

10. Freshwater Coordination Team(formed in September) • Support: CENR Subcommittee on Water Availability and Quality; ACWI Sustainable Water Resources Roundtable; AWRA Water Resources Policy Dialogue • Interface with the Hydrology Program and facilitate the exchange of information within NOAA • Champion NOAA’s expertise in ecosystem management, freshwater research and forecasting, and integrated water cycle science and assessments NOAA SAB

11. Mission Goal Reps: MG1- Hal Stanford (NOS/NCCOS) Garry Mayer (NMFS/HC) MG2 – Harvey Hill (OAR/OGP) MG3 - George Smith (NWS/OHD) MG4 – Galen Scott (NOS/NGS) NOAA Oversight and Reporting: MG3 Leader – Jack Hayes (NWS/OST) Hydrology Program Manager – Gary Carter (NWS/OHD) NOAA’s Freshwater Coordination Team NOAA SAB

12. Strategic Opportunities for NOAA’s Water Resources Activities • New extramural research and social science studies; Science Advisory Board could provide overarching guidance • Augmented Partnerships: 100% requirement for NOAA’s Hydrology Program calls for a 50% increase in the national stream gauge network • Integrated freshwater OMB and Congressional staff briefings NOAA SAB