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Illustrating Perspectives of Energy and Mobility

Illustrating Perspectives of Energy and Mobility. Timur Gül, Hal Turton Energy Economics Group Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland WEC- Europe Regional Meeting Istanbul / Turkey, 16 October 2008. Presentation Outline. Motivation Current state of energy and mobility

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Illustrating Perspectives of Energy and Mobility

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  1. Illustrating Perspectives of Energy and Mobility • Timur Gül, Hal Turton • Energy Economics Group • Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland • WEC- Europe Regional Meeting • Istanbul / Turkey, 16 October 2008

  2. Presentation Outline • Motivation • Current state of energy and mobility • Future trends of energy and mobility • Conclusions and outlook

  3. Why talking about energy & mobility? Global end-use sector energy consumption (EIA 2007)

  4. Current state of energy and mobility Global modal shares (WBCSD 2004) Global shares of LDV utilization (WBCSD 2004) → 95% of all fuels used are petroleum-based (IPCC 2007)

  5. OECD countries Future Trends in Mobility Where? How? Cars Source: WBCSD (2004)

  6. Energy & mobility trends – fuel use Germany Austria Source: Tremove (2007) Switzerland

  7. EU-27 transport fuel use trends Transport baseline fuel consumption in EC (2007) → Current trends both regionally & globally are likely to threaten the earth’s climate as well as energy security

  8. “Alternative Futures” Drivetrains – dimension mobility Fuels – dimension energy → The appropriate technology choice depends on many factors simultaneously

  9. Hybrids ICEVs Global Transport – mild climate policy: 650 ppmv CO2 target Source: Gül 2008

  10. Global Transport – strong climate policy: 450 ppmv Hydrogen FCVs Hybrids ICEVs Source: Gül 2008

  11. European Transport - 50% CO2 Reduction Target in 2050 Hydrogen FCVs Hybrids Source: Gül 2008

  12. Europe: How could fuel cells contribute ealier? Floor cost in 2060 Floor cost in 2020 Source: Gül 2008

  13. A share of 20% alternative vehicles by 2050

  14. Summary and Outlook • Alternative technologies require to address numerous issues at a time (affordability, climate change, energy security, …) • Most new transport options require holistic approaches in terms of drivetrain technology and energy supply / supply infrastructure – this requires early efforts! • Any move into alternative transport technologies should consider regional circumstances – availability of low-cost biomass, CO2 emissions from the power sector, etc. • More scenario analysis required to assess the potential of different technology options in transport on a regional scale (e.g. Europe), and in particular for electric vehicles

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