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Mediterranean Energy Perspectives

Mediterranean Energy Perspectives. MENA-OECD Task Force on Energy and Infrastructure 8th Meeting Paris 09. 03. 2012 Pedro Moraleda OME General Director. OME Membership. As of December 2011. Mediterranean Energy PERSPECTIVES 2011. Book released in December 2011

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Mediterranean Energy Perspectives

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  1. Mediterranean Energy Perspectives MENA-OECD Task Force on Energy and Infrastructure 8th Meeting Paris 09. 03. 2012 Pedro Moraleda OME General Director

  2. OME Membership As of December 2011

  3. Mediterranean Energy PERSPECTIVES 2011 • Book released in December 2011 • Covers 24 countries, 19 of which are modeled separately • Uses OME Mediterranean Energy Model compatible with IEA flows • Presents supply/demand outlook to 2030 by sector and by fuel • Two demand scenarios depicted: Conservative and Proactive • A comprehensive and quantitative study done by OME staffin cooperation with member companies and local experts

  4. Mediterranean Electricity boom ahead Electricity production/demand in the South will nearly triple by 2030. 20% could be saved under a different scenario.

  5. Oil Coal Gas Renewable Nuclear TWh 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2009 2030 50 0 1229 TWh 559TWh - 50 - 100 Changing Patterns in power Generation GENERATION MIX FORECASTSOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN 559 TWh 1229 TWh 1535 TWh Electricity Efficiency 2009 2030

  6. additional generation capacity needed • SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN 120 GW 321 GW 289 GW GW 350 Non - hydro Renewables 13% 300 Hydro Nuclear 14% 250 28% Gas 3% Oil 200 Coal 15% 6% 150 50% 2% 18% 100 40% 49% 6% 50 17% 14% 5% 16% 5% 2030 PS 2030 CS 2009 200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand. 32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.

  7. POWER GENERATION INVESTMENTS 2010-2030 Over 700 billion Euros will be needed to 2030. Spared gas could compensate the additional cost of clean generation technologies.

  8. MEDITERRANEAN WIND OUTLOOK 15% 17% 68% Wind generation to increase six fold and South to supply one third of the total by 2030.

  9. OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR PV 15% 14% 71% Solar PV is expected to grow at a yearly rate of 15.5% in the Mediterranean region (faster in the South).

  10. OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR CSP 16% 33% 51% South Med countries are expected to produce half of total CSP-based electricity in the region.

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