Energy and Carbon Performance of Housing: Upgrade Analysis, Energy Labelling and National Policy Development

1. Energy and Carbon Performance of Housing: Upgrade Analysis, Energy Labelling and National Policy Development Joe Clarke, Cameron Johnstone, Jae-min Kim, Paul Tuohy Energy Systems Research Unit, University of Strathclyde

2. Simulation has the potential to underpin future legislative requirements of the EPBD. Scottish Building Standards Agency funded work to investigate national domestic stock upgrades and individual dwelling certification.

3. Project context: Scotland • Stock: 2,278,000 dwellings with a high refurbishment requirement. • Dwelling types: detached, semi-detached, terraced, tenement (flats with shared access), four-in-a-block, tower block, conversions. • Materials: brick/block (67%), sandstone (18%), whin/granite (4%), non-traditional (10%). • Construction system: cavity wall (72%), solid wall (28%). • External finish: rendered (71%), stone (18%), brick (5%), non-traditional (5%). • Energy: dwellings comprise a high proportion of overall energy consumption 14.5 TWh/yr (5.5 MT CO2) for heating against a total demand of 85 TWh/yr.

4. Stock performance • 1. Insulation and heating systems • 80% have loft insulation (only 12% meet the 1991 buildingstandards) • 92% have hot water tank insulation (5% to an unacceptable level) • 74% have pipe insulation (13% to an unacceptable level) • 70% have gas central heating (14% are partial installations) • 2. General • mean National Home Energy Rating is 4.1 (0 poor - 10 good) • need for energy efficiency improvements • fuel poverty, hypothermia, condensation and mould growth are concerns

5. Relevant upgrades • wall, floor, loft, tank and pipe insulation • draught-proofing • heating system and control improvements • double/advanced glazing • low energy lights and appliances • solar thermal/electric • wind energy • recovered heat EDEM model constructed by applying the ESP-r system to the national housing stock • Legislative questions • what upgrades offer best value? • what deployment combinations are suited to the differenthouse/construction types? • how should the deployments be phased over time? • can simulation be used to answer such questions?

6. EDEM: stock modelling • Problematic because of the many permutations of house types, constructional systems and upgrade measures. • Easy to identify dwelling types from an architecture and construction (A/C) viewpoint, but …. • dwellings belonging to the same A/C group may have different energy consumption (/m2) due to dissimilar energy efficiency measures having been applied; • dwellings corresponding to different A/C groups may have the same consumption because the governing design parameters are essentially the same. • => operate in terms of TCs not A/C types.

7. Project method • Assume thermodynamic classes (TC) where different A/C types may belong to the same TC. • There are 6,480 TCs each representing unique combination of 7 fabric and 6 system design parameters that may exist at several levels. • Determine the normalised energy performance of each TCs by simulation. • Relate existing or proposed dwellings to a TC via the present level of its governing design parameters. • Should any design parameters be changed as part of an upgrade then that house is deemed to have moved to another TC. • TCs therefore represent all possibilities now and in the future. Dwelling model: • comprises living, eating and sleeping areas • has typical usage patterns, exposures and control set-points • has TC specific design parameters applied • is subjected to long term representative climate Simulation context may be varied to represent future scenarios (e.g. climate change or improved living standards).

8. well insulated • high internal mass • large windows • well sealed • … discrete designs universe of possible dwellings • TCs are unique combinations of construction parameters: • insulation level (6) • capacity level (2) • capacity position (3) • air permeability (3) • window size (3) • exposure (5) • wall-to-floor ratio (2) • and systems parameters: • fuel type (5) • plant type (8) • plant efficiency (3) • DHW (3) • RES type (3) • RES scale (3) • giving 2 x 3,240 combinations representing the universe of possibilities. 6,480 simulated models • poor insulation • low mass • small windows • leaky • … inherited behaviour

9. EDEM: performance rating Insulation: poor ave high eco super Infiltration: leaky ave tight Glazed area: std large Capacity: high low Gains: low med high individual dwelling statement Operation: frugal ave profl Exposure: high ave m-l low h-m Climate: UKCIP std future Hot water use: frugal ave profl Low carbon heating: no med high Heating system efficiency: low med high Water heat sys efficiency: low med high Energy efficiency lights: no med all Appliances: low med high Energy performance characterised by the appropriate combination of key parameters Low carbon electricity: no med high Emissions factors: low med high

10. EDEM: performance rating, SAP emulation Fabric loss (exp, ins): v.high high ave low v.low Infiltration: leaky ave tight Glazed area: std large Capacity: low individual dwelling statement Gains: std Operation: std Climate: std Hot water use: std Low carbon heating: no med high Heating system efficiency: low med high Water heat sys efficiency: low med high Energy efficiency lights: no med all Appliances: Options may be restricted to align with SAP 2005 assumptions Low carbon electricity: no med high Emissions factors: std

11. large windows, poor insulation, high capacity (externally located), high infiltration, … TC Parameters Regression equation coefficients a b c d e f g h i j k 1 1/0/2/2/0 -1.003 -0.008 -0.115 0.0097 0.0008 0.0052 -0.110 0 0.0009 0.0130 22.7 2 0/0/2/2/0 0.181 -0.015 -0.157 0.2350 -0.0020 0.0013 -0.190 0.00010 0.0030 0.0204 17.4 3 1/0/1/1/1 -0.946 -0.005 -0.106 -0.0080 0.0009 0.0044 -0.107 0 0.0006 0.0128 21.5 4 0/0/0/0/0 -0.755 -0.007 -0.100 -0.0940 0.0028 0.0012 -0.121 0 -0.0020 0.0171 22.9 5 0/0/0/1/0 -0.969 -0.009 -0.112 0.0387 0.0009 0.0052 -0.105 0 0.0010 0.0127 21.6 6 0/0/1/2/0 -0.889 -0.007 -0.098 0.0155 0.0007 0.0046 -0.096 0 0.0009 0.0130 19.7 7 1/1/1/0/0 -0.857 -0.011 -0.113 0.0048 0.0010 0.0054 -0.102 0 0.0007 0.0127 19.2 8 1/1/0/1/0 -0.854 -0.011 -0.112 0.0060 0.0010 0.0053 -0.102 0 0.0007 0.0127 19.1 9 1/0/0/0/2 -0.855 -0.011 -0.113 0.0064 0.0010 0.0054 -0.103 0 0.0007 0.0128 19.1 10 1/0/0/1/2 -0.856 -0.011 -0.114 0.0078 0.0010 0.0055 -0.104 0 0.0008 0.0129 19.2 11 1/0/1/2/2 -0.800 -0.010 -0.100 0.0093 0.0011 0.0048 -0.100 0 0.0008 0.0123 17.7 12 1/0/2/1/2 0.915 -0.013 -0.229 0.0491 -0.0060 0.0047 -0.220 0.00040 0.0081 0.0194 12.3 13 0/0/2/0/2 -0.685 -0.003 -0.086 0.0552 0.0007 0.0038 -0.083 0 0.0002 0.0105 14.5 14 0/0/1/1/2 -0.742 -0.005 -0.105 0.0579 0.0007 0.0053 -0.083 0 0.0007 0.0103 15.2 15 1/1/2/0/1 0.001 0.007 -0.113 -0.0240 -0.0020 0.0014 -0.072 0.00020 0 0.0096 11.0 16 1/2/2/2/0 -0.610 -0.003 -0.087 0.0602 0.0007 0.0043 -0.076 0 0.0008 0.0091 12.4 17 0/1/1/0/1 -0.610 -0.003 -0.087 0.0604 0.0007 0.0043 -0.076 0 0.0008 0.0091 12.4 18 0/1/1/2/1 -0.523 -0.009 -0.097 0.0134 0.0002 0.0051 -0.072 0 0.0006 0.0090 11.6 19 0/1/2/2/1 -0.557 -0.009 -0.096 0.0489 0.0005 0.0053 -0.071 0 0.0007 0.0090 11.5 20 1/1/1/1/2 -0.555 -0.009 -0.096 0.0487 0.0005 0.0052 -0.071 0 0.0007 0.0090 11.4 21 1/1/2/2/2 -0.196 -0.006 -0.092 -0.0190 -0.0010 0.0034 -0.063 0.00003 0.0013 0.0073 10.0 22 0/1/1/0/2 -0.469 -0.006 -0.084 0.0527 0.0005 0.0045 -0.070 0 0.0009 0.0085 9.7 23 1/2/1/2/0 -0.465 -0.009 -0.102 0.0130 0.0002 0.0053 -0.071 0 0.0006 0.0091 10.5 24 0/2/1/0/1 -0.396 -0.005 -0.088 0.0425 0.0001 0.0047 -0.068 0 0.0010 0.0080 8.7 25 0/1/0/1/2 -0.425 -0.007 -0.076 0.0547 0.0005 0.0042 -0.065 0 0.0094 0.0078 8.6 26 0/2/0/2/1 -0.389 -0.005 -0.086 0.0396 0.0001 0.0046 -0.066 0 0.0091 0.0078 8.6 27 1/2/0/2/2 -0.237 -0.009 -0.074 -0.0050 0 0.0040 -0.046 0.00004 0.0002 0.0063 6.0 28 1/2/1/0/2 -0.228 -0.009 -0.069 -0.0060 0 0.0038 -0.042 0.00004 0.0001 0.0058 5.6 29 0/2/0/0/2 -0.159 -0.005 -0.053 0.0079 0 0.0032 -0.036 0.00002 0.0004 0.0043 3.9 30 0/2/1/2/2 -0.157 -0.005 -0.052 0.0077 0 0.0031 -0.035 0.00002 0.0004 0.0043 3.9 E = a θ + b Rd + c Rf + dV + e θ Rd + f θ Rf + g θ V + h Rd Rf + i RdV + j Rf V + k

12. Dwelling Type Detached Semi-detached Terrace Tenement flat 4-in-a-block As built As As As As built #1 built #1 built #2 built #1 Heating demand 43 71 43 87 41 81 34 66 30 (kWh m-2y-1) TC model 13 30 18 28 13 29 21 11 26 TC heating 46 76 46 91 46 87 34 67 26 (kWh m-2y-1) % difference 7 7 7 5 12 7 3 2 -13 #1: with double glazing, cavity and loft insulation and draught proofing. #2: with double glazing, internal insulation and draught proofing. EDEM validation (v. measured and full scale simulation)

13. EDEM validation (v. published NHER ratings)

14. EDEM: application scale Individual dwelling EPBD rating and action plan generation Stock rating and upgrade strategy appraisal Individual dwelling statement Scottish house condition survey EDEM Certificate and improvement advice CONTEXT policy, climate, fuel, demographics, economics

15. EDEM in use

16. high insulation level: new heating system: tight air leakage: EDEM in use: emissions label

17. EDEM in use: energy certificate ENERGY CERTIFICATE current rating household questionnaire improved rating improvement advice

18. Date Type Pre 1919-65 (64%) 1965-82 (25%) 1982-02 (11%) Cavity Solid Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Solid Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Timber | Trad. Houses Detached 4% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 2% 2% 38% 62% Totals 18% Semi-detached 8% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5 21% Terraced 8.5% 3.5% 0.5 0.5% 6% 1.5% 1.5% 1% 1% 24% Flats Tenement 6% 9% 1% 1% 3% 0.5% 0.5% 1% 1% 23% Four-in-a-block 6% 2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 10% Tower block 1% 0.5% 1.5% 3% Conversion 2% 0% 2% Total (2.1 M) 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 2% 17.5% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100% EDEM application: national scale

19. Date Type Pre 1919-65 (64%) 1965-82 (25%) 1982-02 (11%) Cavity Solid Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Solid Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Timber | Trad. Houses Detached 6 2,1 6,7,17,18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 38% 62% Totals 18% Semi-detached 6 2, 1 6,7,17,18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 21% Terraced 6 1, 21 6 2 6,7,17,18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 24% Flats Tenement 6 2, 1 6 2 6,7,17,18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 23% Four-in-a-block 6 1, 2 6 2 6,7,17,18 2, 19 10% Tower block 6 6 6, 18 3% Conversion 1, 2 0% 2% Total (2.1 M) 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 2% 17.5% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100% TC assignment

20. Date Type Pre 1919-65 (64%) 1965-82 (25%) 1982-02 (11%) Cavity Solid Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Solid Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Timber | Trad. Houses Detached 4% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 2% 2% 38% 62% Totals 18% Semi-detached 8% 5% 4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5 21% Terraced 8.5% 3.5% 0.5 0.5% 6% 1.5% 1.5% 1% 1% 24% Flats Tenement 6% 9% 1% 1% 3% 0.5% 0.5% 1% 1% 23% Four-in-a-block 6% 2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 10% Tower block 1% 0.5% 1.5% 3% Conversion 2% 0% 2% Total (2.1 M) 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 2% 17.5% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100% EDEM application: national scale

21. Date Type Pre 1919-65 (64%) 1965-82 (25%) 1982-02 (11%) Cavity Solid Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Solid Non-trad. Cavity | Solid Cavity Timber | Trad. Houses Detached 6 2,1 6,7,17,18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 38% 62% Totals 18% Semi-detached 6 2, 1 6,7,17,18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 21% Terraced 6 1, 21 6 2 6,7,17,18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 24% Flats Tenement 6 2, 1 6 2 6,7,17,18 6, 18 2, 19 26 17, 18 23% Four-in-a-block 6 1, 2 6 2 6,7,17,18 2, 19 10% Tower block 6 6 6, 18 3% Conversion 1, 2 0% 2% Total (2.1 M) 33.5% 26.5% 2.5% 2% 17.5% 4.5% 3.5% 5.5% 5.5% 100% TC assignment

22. EDEM in use

23. Upgrade strategy Current stock maps to 8 TCs: - TC6 - TC2 - TC1 - TC7 - TC17 - TC18 - TC19

24. TC upgrades may be phased: - TC6 to TC11 then to TC18 - TC18 to TC22/ TC24 then to TC30 Upgrade strategy • 12 TC relocations examined: • 1 to 16 and 21 • 2 to 19 • 6 to 11, 18 and 30 • 7 to 28 • 17 to 22 and 24 • 18 to 30 • 19 to 21 • 5 relocations gave highest potential for space heating energy savings: • 1 to 21 (62%) • 2 to 19 (48%) • 6 to 30 (90%) • 7 to 28 (86%) • 18 to 30 (80%)

25. Space heating impact, detached houses

26. Overall outcome: TC 6 to 30 for detached house

27. EDEM application: regional scale improvement advice

28. Conclusions • ESP-r system used to formulate EDEM for domestic sector upgrade appraisal. • The approach is widely applicable because the underlying TCs cover all possibilities, present and future. • EDEM is available under an Open Source license. • EDEM has been applied at national and regional levels. In the former case (i.e. for Scotland 14.5 TWh/y): • Phase 1 (TC6, TC2 & TC1) - 4.7 TWh/y (32.4%) & 1.8 MT CO2 • + • Phase 2 (TC7) - 5.7 TWh/y (39.3%) & 2.2 MT CO2 • + • Phase 3 (TC17 & TC18) - 7.3 TWh/y (50.3%) & 2.8 MT CO2 • + • End of programme (TC19) - 7.6 TWh/y (52.4%) & 2.8 MT CO2