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Russia and NATO A New Chapter?

Russia and NATO A New Chapter?. Presented by: Harry Bethke & Max Harrington November 16, 2010 Presented for: State Dept. Policy Planning Staff. How could this happen?!?. A history of ad-hoc cooperation. June 24, 2010: A successful “reset” sealed with burgers and fries.

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Russia and NATO A New Chapter?

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  1. Russia and NATOA New Chapter? Presented by: Harry Bethke & Max Harrington November 16, 2010 Presented for: State Dept. Policy Planning Staff

  2. How could this happen?!? A history of ad-hoc cooperation June 24, 2010: A successful “reset” sealed with burgers and fries • 1991: North-Atlantic Cooperation Council • 1997: Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council • 2010: Medvedev signals that he is willing to cooperate on ABM shield

  3. Why this should happen: the U.S. perspective • Of the top 6 importers of Russian crude; 5 are NATO members • Russia uses natural resources in line with its foreign policy goals • Russia will provide 1/3 of China’s natural gas imports beginning in 2015 • Russia signaling Europe that they are not the only game in town

  4. Malasia 875 Million India: 3.22 Billion China: 1.65 Billion Algeria: 2.4 Billion Why this should happen: the U.S. perspective, continued • Gas isn’t the only thing China is buying from Russia • In 2005 over 50% of arms exports from Russia went to China • From 2005-2009 China was Russia’s third largest importer of arms The Point: China is getting stronger • Democracy! • Pevehouse (2002) Chief importers of Russian arms transfers 2005 – 2009 Sales in U.S. dollars

  5. Why this should happen: the Russian perspective Manpower available for Military Service • Russia needs a friend • Multiple security challenges of its own: • Demographic • Economic • Narcotic • Military modernization • Reduced need to posture • NATO will cease to be the anti-Russia club China: 680,492,931 Russia: 70,744,194 China’s Military Expenditures : $376 Billion (2009,PPP) Russia’s Military Expenditures: $82 Billion (2009, PPP)

  6. To Recap: • Expand NATO to include Russia • WHY? • It’s good for Russia • Provides a partner for Russia’s security • Repurposes NATO; no longer the anti-Russia club • Provides avenue for military transformation • Permits more direct dialogue with the west • It’s good for the U.S. • New partner in NATO operations • Useful partner in balancing PRC influence • Can influence the flow of Russian arms and energy • Fosters democratic growth in Russia

  7. Thank You. Questions?

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