Futures Analysis and Approaches to Integrated Collaborative Problem-Solving

1. Anita Street Office of Research and Development Office of Science Policy Unregulated Pollutants and Emerging Chemicals Workshop October 25 – 26, 2005 Futures Analysis and Approaches to Integrated Collaborative Problem-Solving

2. Research and Development • 1,950 employees • $700 million budget • $100 million extramural research grant program • 13 lab or research facilities across the U.S. • Credible, relevant and timely research results and technical support that inform EPA policy decisions

3. Making decisions with sound science requires.. • Relevant, high quality, cutting-edge research in human health, ecology, pollution control and prevention, economics and decision sciences • Proper characterization of scientific findings • Appropriate use of science in the decision process Research and development contribute uniquely to.. • Health and ecological research, as well as research in pollution prevention and new technology • In-house research and an external grants program • Problem-driven and core research

4. High Priority Research Areas • Human Health • Particulate Matter • Drinking Water • Clean Water • Global Change • Endocrine Disruptors • Ecological Risk • Pollution Prevention • Homeland Security

5. Office of Science Policy • Developing unified positions on the use of science in regulations and policies • Manage futures program for ORD • Coordinate implementation of EPA-wide science policy

6. Today’s Presentation • “Futures 101” • What it is and isn’t • Methods • Barriers • How might futures be used in the context of unregulated or emerging pollutants? • How can futures be used in the context of CPS?

7. The Illusion of Certainty • "The phonograph is of no commercial value.“ - Thomas Edison, 1880 • “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in the home.“- Ken Olsen, President of Digital, 1977 • "Anyone who thinks the ANC is going to run South Africa is living in cloud cuckoo land."- Margaret Thatcher, 1987

8. What is Futures Analysis? • An effort to anticipate and plan for future conditions and/or events. This allows organizations to plan strategically and position themselves for situations that may occur in the future. • With respect to environmental protection, futures analysis involves identifying potential environmental problems before they become widespread or pose serious human health or ecological threats. This may help EPA more effectively prevent undesirable outcomes.

9. EPA Second Industrial Revolution Different World/Different Challenges First Industrial Revolution Adapt Shape Atoms Incremental change Science of discovery Atoms/Bits (Digital/physical Converge) Fluid, mobile, interconnected Exponential change Adapted from Rejeski, 2003

10. Where things are made And whether they are made A Revolution in: How things are made Rejeski, 2003

11. Common Futures Methods • Scanning/lookout panels • Trend extrapolation/modeling • Scenario building

12. Scanning/Lookout Panels • Systematic and continuous review of news about scientific, technological, sociological, and institutional developments. • Assembling a group of individuals with expertise in relevant fields who can identify noteworthy trends. Examples • ORD's scan to identify potential futures issues and book Environmentalism & the Technologies of Tomorrow(Rejeski/Olson,2004) • EPA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) Environmental Futures Committee

13. …scanning weak signals • Conflict and Governance • Science and Technology • Agriculture and Food Security • Natural Resources and Environment • Energy • Population, Education, and Human Welfare • Communications and Transportation • Regional and International Economics • Social and Cultural Issues DOMAINS Summary Self-healing Infrastructure Systems LEADS • Novelty • Scope • Severity • Visibility • Timing • Probability CRITERIA Ranking Sources

14. Trend Extrapolation/Modeling • Projection of future conditions based on assessing past trends and extrapolating them by adjusting time-series variables. • Trend extrapolation is accomplished using simple mathematical projections; modeling involves numerous variables and complex calculations. Example: • Population growth and demographic change • Estimates of global climate change • Trends in manufacturing

15. Projected US Population: 2000-2050 2050 420 Million 2040 392 Million 2030 364 Million 2020 336 Million 2010 309 Million 2000 282 Million = 100 Million Source: US Census Bureau

16. US Population Over 65 87Million 2050 80Million 2040 71 Million 2030 55Million 2020 40 Million 2010 35 Million 2000 = 10 Million Source: US Census Bureau

17. HPV Chemicals Stats • 3,300 chemicals out 70,000 used commercially in large quantities (excluding polymers) in U.S. • 4.4 to 7.1 trillion pounds of HPV are produced/imported annually in the U.S. • 450M lbs used annually worldwide. Growing 4% annually.

18. Scenario Building • Qualitative projections of alternative future conditions based on variation in the interaction of key drivers of change • Drivers include social, technological, economic, and institutional changes • Scenarios range from very broad combinations of drivers that describe various world views to more specific stories about the impact of drivers on particular issues

19. Scenario Building • Scenarios are tools for learning and focusing attention. • They must be relevant to decision makers. • Scenario efforts begin with an exploration of the goals and key assumptions of the organization. • Tools include basic trend research and interviewing insiders and outsiders.

20. Drivers • Drivers are forces that generate environmental and institutional stressors that can lead to adverse impacts on human health and ecological endpoints. • EPA's SAB Environmental Futures Committee identified the following • Population growth and urbanization • Economic expansion/resource consumption • Technological development • Changes in environmental attitudes

21. EPA Scenarios • Formally established a “Futures Network”-- GBN training for 30 people from across the Agency • Interviewed managers about “what kept them up at night” • Worsening global environment • Future relevance of EPA • Future of public support for EPA

22. High Social Cohesion “A Soft “Eco-Efficiency Landing” Revolution” Low Growth High Growth “A Darker “Full Speed Age” Ahead” Low Social Cohesion EPA Scenarios

23. Strategic Conversation “Full Speed Ahead” voted “most likely” --- thought to reflect current trends

24. …developing foresight tools Pennsylvania DEP’s Futures Planning Process ...a systems’s sensitivity and adaptability... ...exposure to stress... ...and society’s valuation of the system. Vulnerability Where are future vulnerabilities (the extent to which a system might be harmed by stressors)? Space Time

25. Barriers to Futures • Scientific: absence of basic data to adequately account for uncertainty • Technical: inadequate tools to evaluate problems; lack of incentives to collect better information • Institutional: unclear mandates or authority, lack of internal and external coordination, lack of vision or imagination, protectionism, skepticism

26. Futures and Emerging Chemicals • Copper Scenario Model • IPPC emission scenarios for GHG • Analyzed future material intensity and copper use from yr 2000 – 2100 • Four world regions – 3 scenarios • Statistically analyzed historical data • Surveyed experts • Quantified scenarios

27. Futures and Emerging Chemicals

28. Futures and Emerging Chemicals • EPA/IBM Text Analytics Pilot • Using HPV documents, identify patterns or trends to discover insights about tox effects • Using HPV documents identify trends using patent data to determine where/how HPV chemicals are being used

29. Futures & Collaboration • Public Understanding of Science (PUS) • Deficit to Dialogue • Upstream engagement • http://www.demos.co.uk/catalogue/paddlingupstream/

30. U.S. EPA Conflict Prevention and Resolution Center (CPRC) Alternative Dispute Resolution (neutral third party) • Neutral-Assisted Dispute Resolution • EPA facilitated Superfund allocation • Mediated settlement negotiations • Workplace mediation • Neutral-AssistedCollaborative Problem Solvingin Shared or Other Stakeholder-led Activities • Facilitated partnerships • Facilitated intra-agency partnerships • Neutral-AssistedCollaborative Problem Solving Involving the Publicin EPA Decisions • Facilitated policy dialogues • Facilitated negotiated rulemaking Collaborative Problem Solving (joint action to solve a problem that no single stakeholder can solve) Public Involvement (EPA decision, members of the public involved voluntarily) • Collaborative • Problem Solving • in Shared or Other • Stakeholder-led Activities (unassisted) • Intra-agency partnerships • EPA-State co-regulator partnerships • Federal interagency partnerships • Public-private partnerships • Neutral-Assisted Public Involvement • Facilitated public meetings • Facilitated workshops • Facilitated listening sessions • Facilitated conferences • Traditional Public Involvement Activities (unassisted) • Conferences • Workshops • Listening sessions • Public meetings • Public notice and comment • Collaborative Problem Solving Involving the Public in EPA Decisions (unassisted) • Federal advisory committees • EPA-led “shuttle diplomacy” on rule/policy development

32. Futures & Collaboration • Stakeholders can develop a collective vision of the future (scenarios, visioning) • Shape the future and have a say in technological developments before it’s too late to change developmental trajectories • Help understand the environmental effects of consumer consumption • Who gets to decide?

33. Is it practical to view the world as unchanging? • Will changes be linear and incremental? • Can we shape the future before the future shapes us?

34. Thank You Anita Street, M.P.H Office of Research and Development street.anita@epa.gov 202.564.3626 Visit our futures websites at: http://www.epa.gov/osp/efuture.htm(ORD) http://www.epa.gov/cfo/futures/index.html(EPA-wide site) IBM Pilot – Contact: Bob Kavlock at kavlock.robert@epa.gov