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Beyond the Venezuelan National Assembly Elections of September 21 , 2010

Beyond the Venezuelan National Assembly Elections of September 21 , 2010. Bifurcation of Class & Culture underpin the success of Hugo Chavez Caracas: Modern & Western?. Caracas: Traditional & Poor. HUGO CHAVEZ CONSOLIDATES POWER . Radicalization and class conflict 2001 Ley Habilitante

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Beyond the Venezuelan National Assembly Elections of September 21 , 2010

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  1. Beyond the Venezuelan National Assembly Elections of September 21, 2010

  2. Bifurcation of Class & Culture underpin the success of Hugo Chavez Caracas: Modern & Western?

  3. Caracas: Traditional & Poor

  4. HUGO CHAVEZ CONSOLIDATES POWER • Radicalization and class conflict • 2001 Ley Habilitante • 2002 (April)Coup attempt • 2003 Massive protest marches • 2004 (August) Chavez wins recall election

  5. National Assembly of Venezuela following elections of December 2005 • MVR: 139 diputados. • Podemos: 20 diputados. • Patria Para Todos: 5 diputados. • Frente Popular Humanista: 5 diputados. • Partido Comunista de Venezuela: 3 diputados. • Nuevo Camino Revolucionario: 2 diputados. •    Afiliación desconocida: 7 diputados. • Federal Legislative Palace: Caracas

  6. Presidential Election 2006 Hugo Chávez vs. Rosales • Winner Hugo Chávez Party PSUV • Home state Barinas States carried 24 0 • Percentage of Popular Vote • 62.84% 36.90% • Manual Rosales Red Tide takes Caracas

  7. Chávez forms PSUV • On 18 December 2006 – Electoral Council informed of intention to disband the Fifth Republic Movement • Between 29 April and 10 June 2007 a total of 5,669,305 people joined the party, • Represented the 80% of the chavista vote of 2006 • Founding Congress PSUV 12 February 2008

  8. Leaders of PSUV Celia Flores 1st Vice-President Adan Chavez Diosdado Cabello

  9. abolish presidentialterm limits, allowing for indefinite re-election of the president (not allowed for any other political post), expand social security benefits to workers in the informal economy, end the autonomy of the central bank, giving control to the president, and place the president in charge of administering the country's international reserves, prohibit large land estates, while "allowing the state to provisionally occupy property reduce the maximum working week from 44 to 36 hours and reduce the workday from eight to six hours, lower the voting age from 18 to 16, increase the presidential term from six to seven years reorganize the country's administrative districts allow the president to control elected state governors and mayors by an unelected “popular power” dependent on the presidency,[19] , allow the president to declare an unlimited state of emergency, prohibit foreign funding for political associations. allow public funding for political associations. ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.[20]

  10. Constitutional referendum 2 December, 2007 Results • Yes (4,379,392) 49.29 • No (4,504,354) 50.70 ( Por Ahora)

  11. Regional elections: November 23rd, 2008 Governors PSUV wins 17 out of 22 Mayors PSUV wins mayoralties in 80 % of municipios • Opposition Success Consequential (43 % population in states with opposition governors • Governor of Zulia • Governor of Miranda • Governor of Tachira • Governor of Carabobo Turnout 65% • Alcalde Mayor of Caracas • Alcalde of Maracaibo

  12. The opposition leadership in the Regions Antonio Ledezma (ABP/ AD) Henrique Salas R. (PV) Morel Rodríguez Enrique Capriles R (PJ) Nueva Esparta Dist. Metr. Carabobo .. Falcón Aragua Sucre Yaracuy Zulia Miranda Lara Pablo Pérez (UNT) Cojedes Trujillo Monagas Portuguesa Anzoátegui Guárico Delta Amacuro Mérida Barinas Táchira Apure Cesar Pérez Vivas (COPEI) Bolívar Amazonas

  13. Abolishing Term Limits Referendum15 February 2009 • Widespread opposition when abolition of term limits applied only to president • Gained support when extended to all elected offices • Strengthen Chávez personal power Results • Votes Percentage Yes • (54.5%) • 6,310,482

  14. the 2010 National Assembly ELECTIONS

  15. Composition of the National Assembly of Venezuela January 2010 • PSUV: 139 diputados. • Podemos: 20 diputados. • Patria Para Todos: 5 diputados. • Frente Popular Humanista: 5 diputados. • Partido Comunista de Venezuela: 3 diputados. • Nuevo Camino Revolucionario: 2 diputados. •    Afiliación desconocida: 7 diputados. • Federal Legislative Palace: Caracas

  16. Strengths of the Opposition and the Government ( after 15F) Opposition strength is in urban centers of medium to high population density. The government shows to be strong in less urban areas with low to medium population density. Dependencias Federales Dist. Metr. Nueva Esparta Carabobo .. Falcón Estado Miranda Aragua Sucre Yaracuy Zulia Lara Cojedes Trujillo Monagas Portuguesa Guárico Delta Amacuro Mérida Anzoátegui Barinas Táchira Apure Bolívar Difference expressed in percentage points In favor of the Government In favor of the Opposition < 5,0 < 5,0 5,1 - 10,0 5,1 - 10,0 10,1 - 15,0 10,1 - 15,0 15,1 - 20,0 20,1 - 30,0 30,1 or more Amazonas

  17. National Assembly Election (perspective immediately following 15 February, 2009) If the Government and opponents preserve the number of votes obtained in 15F, under the then prevailing electoral law (mixed single member district proportional distribution of seats) the National Assembly would have been ... Opposition members (69)* • None of the Parties obtains a super majority (112 seats) it would have been necessary to open spaces of negotiation for approving: • Enabling laws. • Organic Laws. Government members (95)* * Does not include indigenous members

  18. National Assembly Election Projected Outcome: January 2010 Following modification of the Organic Law on Electoral Processes : where the new electoral regulations decrease number of seats allocated by proportional distribution, the situation expected would be different (keeping as a basis of calculation the results of 15F) … • The Government Party obtains the super majority and can approve: • Enabling laws • Organic Laws • Spaces of discussions are not needed for parliamentary negotiations. Opposition members (48)* Government members (116)* * Does not include indigenous members (3 members)

  19. Consolidated Distribution Of Public Opinion Tendencia Actitudinal de los Neutrales Oposición 42% 4% 13% 13% 5% Chavismo 45% 16% Chavistas acríticos o que comparten las iniciativas del oficialismo In Depth Distribution 38% Chavistas críticos que no comparten las iniciativas del oficialismo 29% Neutrales “puros” 4% 13% Opositores Blandos Opositores Duros Distribution of Partisan Opinion: embedded dynamism Classical Distribution “Chavistas, Opositores y Neutrales” Opositores 38% Neutrales 22% Chavistas 40% KELLER y Asoc.: Estudio Nacional de Opinión Pública, n = 1.200 , 2do. Trimestre de 2008

  20. Mesa de la Unidad: coordination to Maximize Opposition Representation in the National Assembly • Un Nuevo Tiempo • Center-left/Social Democratic • Core support in Zulia • Manuel Rosales in exile • Primero Justicia • Center-right • Elected 5 members to National Assembly in 2000 • Core support – middle class of Caracas • Julio Borges • Proyecto Venezuela • Centerist • Core support in Carabobo • Henrique Salas Feo • From the (Punto Fijo) regime • Podemos • Acción Democrática • COPEI

  21. Steps THAT Chávez and opposition officials can take to address escalating crime, economic, and infra-structure problems?

  22. To understand the actions that the government may adopt in the economic area in 2010/2011 it is important to ask: 1.- How long will the crisis last? 2.- What funds are available to tackle it at lowest cost?

  23. OIL PRICES: View Before 2011 Outbreak of Unrest in Arab World Reuters regularly asks about 30 oil analysts for their forecasts of the oil price. Average Annual Price of Oil Barrel Projections WTI Projections Venezuelan basket SOURCE: OPEC, Reuters SOURCE: Reuters

  24. What would be the government’s room for maneuver? Cash Flow Reserves and funds Fixed Assets • US$29.93 billion international reserves + FEM. • US$16.00 billion FONDEN. • US$6.00 billion Chinese fund. • US$5.00 billion other funds. • TOTAL • US$56.93 billion • US$42 billion oil revenue. • US$35.9 billion tax revenue. • TOTAL • US$ 77.90 billion • US$9.50 billion CITGO (Source: New York Times).

  25. What to expect in economics (2011) Delays in the real economical adjustments Decreases in public investments Imports hierarchy: more inflation Mistrust of the private sector and banking Intense monitoring of the supply issues

  26. U.S. Dependence on foreign Petroleum :Chavez’s Salvation? • U.S. imports Total crude oil imports averaged 9,069 thousand barrels per day in January, 2011 • 951,000 barrels per day: Venezuela provides to USA • 2011: Price on oil increases • Nymex crude oilprice, short term futures (May 2011 delivery) is traded at 107.29 USD • Venezuelan oil (April 2011), $100 barrel • Unrest in Arab World • China/India rising demand

  27. What to expect in politics (2011-12) • Popular Opposition Candidates Disqualified • Throttling of remaining independent press • New Restrictions on Freedom of Speech? • Replacement of National Assembly with Communal Assembly? • Oswaldo Alvarez Paz (jailed for speaking his mind)

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