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Fall/Winter 2010-2011 Outlook

Fall/Winter 2010-2011 Outlook. National Weather Service San Diego, CA. Developing La Nina. La Nina is characterized by below normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Equatorial Pacific In late Spring, SSTs began to drop below normal and have continued to decrease

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Fall/Winter 2010-2011 Outlook

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  1. Fall/Winter 2010-2011 Outlook National Weather Service San Diego, CA

  2. Developing La Nina • La Nina is characterized by below normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Equatorial Pacific • In late Spring, SSTs began to drop below normal and have continued to decrease • The NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina Advisory on Sept 9 • La Nina conditions are expected to last through the 2010-2011 winter and peak at moderate to strong intensity

  3. What does this mean for Southern California? • Depending on the strength and duration of the La Nina conditions, this could potentially lead to cool, dry weather in the Southwestern U.S. • Climate Prediction Center outlooks for Oct-Dec show increased chances of below normal temperatures and precipitation in Southern CA • As the storm track shifts North, there is the a higher chance of offshore flow events. However, whether or not these events will be more frequent and/or stronger is unknown.

  4. CPC Outlooks: Oct-Dec Below normal temperatures and precipitation

  5. Looking Back... Past La Nina Episodes • Of the 7 most recent La Nina episodes, all of them resulted in below normal rainfall in San Diego (1984-85, 88-89, 95-96, 98-99, 99-00, 00-01, 07-08) • Seasonal (Jul 1-Jun 30) rainfall totals ranged from 5.11 to 9.65 inches (SAN normal is 10.77 inches) • In the 84-85 and 88-89 seasons, much more rain fell during the Oct-Dec period than during Jan-Mar. During the other seasons, more rain fell during the Jan-Mar period, which is typical for Southern California.

  6. Other things to note... • For the summer so far (Jun 21st through Sep 15th), the average high temperature at SAN is the 11th lowest on record. Many of the coolest summers on record were followed by cooler than normal falls. • If the West Coast trough that has been in place most of the summer persists through the fall, there is an increased chance of precipitation. This will depend on if and when the jet stream and associated storm track shifts northward due to the La Nina. It is possible that we could have a season similar to 1984-85 and 1988-89.

  7. Questions or Comments?

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