Emerging risks in the 21 st Century Report from OECD – 2003 – ISBN 92-64-19947-0

3. Emerging risks in the 21st CenturyReport from OECD – 2003 – ISBN 92-64-19947-0 City of Naestved Technical Director Jacob Madsen SETRIC – workshop - prevention

4. “ Large-scale disasters of the past few years – such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001, the appearance of previously unknown infectious diseases, unusually extensive flooding in large parts of Europe, devastating bushfires in Australia and violent ice storms in Canada – have brought home to OECD governments the realisation that something new is happening. ………… Preparing to deal effectively with the hugely complex treats of the 21st century is a major challenge for decision makers in government and the private sector alike, and one that needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency” Report OECD: An agenda for action

5. Adopt a new policy approach to risk management Adopt broader view of risk – from hard sciences to psychology, sociology and economics Examine policy consistency across risk areas – decision improvement and sharing best practices Improve coherence of risk management – understand elements of regulation Develop synergies between the public and private sectors Get incentives right. Awareness to policy design, risk behaviour and liability in new technologies implemented Enhance the role of the private sector in risk management – dialogue regulators/operators Address the issue of increasing scale through co-operation and promotion of diversity – infrastructure, public procurement and competition policies to be less vulnerable Inform and involve stakeholders and the general public Develop risk awareness and a safety culture – information should not only be accessible to local authorities and the general public – but should be usable and used by them – media, schools, hospitals and NGOs can play an important role – but public authorities have a leading role to play through adequate risk communication …. Enhance dialogue and build trust – risk assessment in institutional arrangements to make it credible – communicated and free of any link to policy decisions, the quest for best expertise should on the other hand not delay action. OECD - Conclusions and recommendations

6. Strengthen international co-operation Achieve better sharing of knowledge and technologies across countries – expanding information- and technology-sharing agreements to new players Enhance international systems of surveillance and monitoring – ex. co-ordinate regular exchanges of views and experiences among countries on improving public health services’ effectiveness in preparing for and dealing with emerging systemic risks. Create frameworks for co-operation – ex. On controversial issues, an international scientific committee – expertise and independent Make better use of technological potential and enhance research efforts Improve support for promising new technologies, key technologies as communication means – explore whether new business models and new public-private partnerships are required Explore and develop tools that reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of systems OECD - Conclusions and recommendations (2)

7. demography (growth in Asia and Africa, 3 billion in cities, significant change in age structures, and international migration) the environment (CO2 emissions, lack of freshwater available for human use, biodiversity) technology (connectedness, speed and pervasiveness of technological change, regulatory change and development of transport, trade and information systems, biotech technologies) socio economic structures (vulnerability and perception of risk in society are evolving, globalisation, publics opinion of risks depends on the mass media rather than on expert opinion) Driving forces and key issues

8. Heightened mobility and complexity Increasing scale and concentration A changing context and major uncertainties Shifting responsibilities The importance of risk perception Issues for the future of risc management

9. “Risk assessment consists in identifying and evaluating each step of a trajectory – from the origins of a hazard to its final consequences for a given system. It is an essential element for deciding whether and how risk needs to be avoided, reduced or accepted. Both as an scientific process and as input for decision making, assessment of merging systemic risks faces a number of challenges” Risk assessment

10. Individuals and organisations are often not aware of their responsibilities or are not informed about the risks Safety expenditures are usually immediate, while benefits only materialise through time Governments might be tempted to reduce spending on activities such as infrastructure maintenance or training of personnel Framework conditions of risk prevention

11. “In the aftermath of a disaster, the attention of the public and the media are at their highest point. A unique window of opportunity then opens for improving the knowledge of new risks, for overcoming inertia and resistance in order to improve the assessment and management of risk, and for avoiding the recurrence of similar disasters” Learning from disasters

12. “ Risk prevention and mitigation aim at preventing accidents and disasters, or at reducing their consequences before they occur. This can be achieved by protecting systems and reducing their vulnerability to specific hazards on the one hand, and by improving the way society handles risk through an enhancement of its safety culture on the other” Risk prevention