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PROGRESS REPORT TWG I: Energy Policy Analysis by Rahmat A. Al Hasibi

PROGRESS REPORT TWG I: Energy Policy Analysis by Rahmat A. Al Hasibi. Semarang July, 13 th 2011. Outline. Development of CASINDO Leap Model CASINDO database structure Survey result of Household sector Scenarios: Baseline scenario

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PROGRESS REPORT TWG I: Energy Policy Analysis by Rahmat A. Al Hasibi

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  1. PROGRESS REPORT TWG I: Energy Policy Analysis by Rahmat A. Al Hasibi Semarang July, 13th 2011

  2. Outline • Development of CASINDO Leap Model • CASINDO database structure • Survey result of Household sector • Scenarios: • Baseline scenario • The integration of TWG III result in energy efficiency scenario • Overview of LEAP Model • Next Activity

  3. CASINDO Database Structure (Household) CAREPI CASINDO

  4. The Result of Household Survey • adjusted to 2008 condition

  5. Population and population growth Population of Y ogyakarta Province in 2008:3, 4 6 8,502 people Population growth in 2005 – 2008: 1.01 % Population growth assumption in scenario: GDP and GDP growth: GDP of Yogyakarta Province in 2008: 19 , 208, 9 3 6 GDP growth in 2008: 5.02 % GDP growth assumption in 2025: 6 .0 % kerosene to LPG conversion: End in 2010 Electrification ratio: 100 % in 2020 Baseline Scenario

  6. Energy Efficiency Scenario • National Target in Energy Efficiency (25/25 vision) • Industrial Sector: 22 % final energy ~ 32 % primary energy • Commercial Sector: 15 % final energy ~ 22 % primary energy • Transportation Sector: 25 % final energy ~ 3 7 % primary energy • Household Sector: 25 % final energy ~ 37 % primary energy • National: 23 % final energy ~ 3 4 % primary energy • Regional Energy Efficiency Potential: • Industrial Sector: 15 – 20 % • Household Sector: 10 – 25 % • Transportation Sector*: 25 % • Commercial Sector*: 25 – 30 %

  7. LEAP Model (Overview)

  8. LEAP Model (Overview)

  9. LEAP Model (Overview)

  10. Next Activity • July-September 2011, to finalize: • scenarios of LEAP model • D28 report

  11. Thank you

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