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TBM Cost Estimate

TBM Cost Estimate. Cost Estimate Schedule Approach Tom Mann October 27, 2005. Cost Estimate Approach. Identify Scope Develop Work Breakdown Structure and WBS Dictionary Develop cost estimate Establish cost contingency needs based on risks Establish a cost range

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TBM Cost Estimate

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  1. TBM Cost Estimate Cost Estimate Schedule ApproachTom MannOctober 27, 2005

  2. Cost Estimate Approach • Identify Scope • Develop Work Breakdown Structure and WBS Dictionary • Develop cost estimate • Establish cost contingency needs based on risks • Establish a cost range • Develop resource-loaded schedule Identify Scope

  3. Work Breakdown Structure

  4. Cost Estimate Approach Cost Estimate Guidelines base on ITER • Guidelines for Assembling the Cost Estimate, Schedule and Risks for Submittal of CD-1 for SNS Power Upgrade Project • Objective: In support of the CD-1 decision planned for Fall 2005, it is necessary to develop and assemble a sustainable, reviewable cost estimate, schedule, and risk analysis for the SNS Power Upgrade Project (PUP). Your input to support this objective is needed no later than June 30. • Background: On November 23, 2004, the Statement of Mission Need for Spallation Neutron Source Proton Beam Power Upgrade Non-Major Systems Acquisition was approved and stated: “The TPC (Total Project Cost) for an SNS power upgrade project has been roughly estimated to be in the $120 – 160 million range.” The document further states that there is “reasonable confidence in this range.” While the requirement for CD-1 is still for an estimate range, the level of detail to support the range must be greater than what currently exists. • In general, your estimate must be defendable at an External Independent Review. The estimate should be realistic with a 50% confidence level, that is, there is a 50% chance that the actual costs will be either higher or lower than the cost estimate. In other words, provide your currently best available cost estimate without contingency. Contingency will be added separately based on your input. The cost estimate developed for CD-1 will be maintained under configuration control and serve as the basis for future updates and revisions. Our estimating approach must include backup details adequate to support the WBS level presented in the External Independent Review. Detailed cost estimate sheets (attachment 3) are provided to capture this backup detail information.

  5. Cost Estimate Approach

  6. Cost Estimate Summary by WBS $k, Escalated, burdened

  7. Element of Cost by WBS

  8. Estimate by Phase

  9. Cost Range

  10. SNS Power Upgrade Project Preliminary Summary Schedule FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 CD-0 Mission Need 0 Critical Decision Milestones 1 CD-1 Alt Select & Cost Range 31Mar11 CD-2a Approve Long Lead Procurement Budget 2a 4 2b CD-2b Approve Performance Baseline CD-4 Project Closeout 3a CD-3a Start Long Lead Procurements CD-3b Start Construction 3b Facility Shutdown Research & Development Injection Stripper Foil Ion Source Hg Target Cryomodule Production Design Review Design Start Cryomodule Production Issue Cryomodule RFP Receive 1st Cryomodule Procurement & Fabrication Receive Last Cryomodule Issue Cryomodule Purchase Order Complete IRP Procurements Installation & Testing Start Cryomodule & IRP Installation Complete Cryomodule & IRP Installation Integrated Testing & Commissioning Start Commissioning Legend # Summary Activity Milestone Critical Decision Milestone

  11. Schedule Summary • Summary Schedule Contains Ninety (90) Activities • Detailed Schedule Contains Over Six Hundred Fifty (650) Activities

  12. Budget Authority by Fiscal Year 15,115 -1,423 -25 2,739 8,575 8,760 -1,603

  13. Cost Estimate Approach • Suggested Plan • Detailed week to week plan to meet March 06 Cost Review • Document Scope • Parameters List • Conceptual Design Report • Focus on Deliverables • Input existing cost estimate data base into ITER format • Complete Base Cost Estimate • Establish Cost Range • Risk Assessment • Contingency Analysis • Schedule with Critical Path • Resource Load Schedule • External Review Committee

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