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House Price Developments in Europe

House Price Developments in Europe. Peter Parlasca FRICS 19 th European Real Estate Society Conference Edinburgh, 13 th -16 June 2012. Outline. Background Legal Framework Macroeconomic surveillance Scoreboard Indicators Data sources On-going issues Scoreboard website

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House Price Developments in Europe

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  1. House Price Developments in Europe Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th European Real Estate Society Conference Edinburgh, 13th-16 June 2012 Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  2. Outline • Background • Legal Framework • Macroeconomic surveillance • Scoreboard Indicators • Data sources • On-going issues • Scoreboard website • House Price Indices (HPI) annual • Experimental Statistics quarterly Peter Parlasca FRICS: House Price Developments in Europe

  3. Background • The financial crisis, the economic crises, and the sovereign debt crisis that swept over Europe in 2008 and the following years lead to a number of new EU Policy initiatives: • Van Rompuy Task Force report on Strengthening economic governance in the EU (21 October 2010) • Commission proposal of 29 September 2010 on an Enhanced Economic Policy Coordination Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  4. Legal Framework • Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure legal framework published in November 2011 - “Six Pack” • Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances • Regulation (EU) No 1174/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council on enforcement measures to correct excessive macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area • The role of Eurostat: Council Conclusions of 8 November 2011 • The Council invites the Commission (Eurostat) to take all necessary initiatives to assure a reliable procedure for the compilation of these statistics as well as a continuous improvement of the underlying statistical information Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  5. Macroeconomic surveillance (1) • Commission procedure aiming to the identification of emerging or persistent macroeconomic imbalances at an early stage • Based on a scoreboardconsisting of a small number of relevant macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators • Compiled according to the principles of the European Statistics Code of Practice of the European Statistical System • Combined with thresholds defined by the Commission • Annual exercise: results published in the Alert Mechanism Report Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  6. Macroeconomic surveillance (2) • MIP scoreboard indicators should not be regarded as either policy targets or policy instruments • their interpretation should be supplemented by economic judgment and country-specific expertise • The composition of the MIP scoreboard indicators may evolve over time • First Alert Mechanism Report published on 14th February • Together with Eurostat news release: Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard - Eurostat indicators to support the detection of macroeconomic imbalances Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  7. Macroeconomic surveillance (3) Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  8. Imbalance indicators • public indebtedness • private indebtedness • asset market developments: housing • evolution of private sector credit flow • evolution of unemployment • evolution of current account • net investment positions • real effective exchange rates • share of world exports • nominal unit labour cost Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  9. Scoreboard indicators Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  10. Data sources for House Price Indices • Eurostat is the main provider receiving data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) • The European Central Bank complements data based on contributions of the National Central Banks (NCBs) Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  11. Ongoing issues • House prices - legislation • Adoption of the regulation on the regular compilation of harmonised data • House prices - coverage • Increasing number of EU Member States covered by the experimental house price statistics Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  12. The scoreboard website • Dedicated section of the Eurostat website: scoreboard website • Quarterly and additional data easily accessible in the same page • Data up-to-date • Data available for all member states • Users can also find metadata in the standard ESMS format • And, for each indicator, a direct link to a table containing longer time series Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  13. House Price Indices (HPI) annual change • Hand out Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  14. House Price Indices (HPI) annual Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  15. Experimental House Price Indices - quarterly Weblink: • http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/methodology/owner_occupied_housing_hpi/experimental_house_price_indices Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

  16. Contact DetailsPeter Parlasca FRICSEuropean Commission EUROSTAT5, rue Alphonse WeickerL-2721 LuxembourgTel : (+352)4301-33101E-Mail: Peter.Parlasca@ec.europa.eu Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference

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