GALLUP WORLD POLL Insights on Would Be Migrants and Remittances

1. GALLUP WORLD POLLInsights on Would Be Migrants and Remittances March 2009 Gerver Torres

2. The World Poll • Annually polling 95% of the Earth's adult population • Conducted in more than 150 countries and territories • Largest available independent source of key world behavioral and economic data. • Same core questions asked across nations and over time, allowing for harmonized international data. • Rigorous measurement methodology • Nationally representative data - includes both urban and rural areas • Samples of at least 1,000 adults per country

3. Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances Some direct questions on migration and remittances in the World Poll: • Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? • To which country would you like to move? (Open ended and code) • Are you planning to move permanently to that country in the next 12 months? • Have any members of your household, aged 15 to 60, gone to live in a foreign country permanently or temporarily in the past five years? • For the person who went most recently, what was the highest level of his/her education? • In which country does/did he/she live?

4. Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances • Do you have relatives or friends who are living in another country whom you can count on to help you when you need them, or not? • In which country, or countries, do they live? • Approximately, how much money in [local currency] does this household receive from relatives living abroad per month? • If for some reason your household stopped receiving these remittances, what would it prevent you or your family from doing? • Do you personally know of someone who is planning to move out of [country] in the next 12 months, or not? • Do you personally know of someone who was living outside of [country] and returned in the past 12 months, or not?

5. Examples of Questions on Migration and Remittances • How many members of this household work temporarily in another country? • In what country/countries are your family members or relatives temporarily working? Please consider both your household members and relatives not living with you. • Are any of your family members or relatives currently studying or are in a work study program abroad (including countries of the former Soviet Union), or not? • In what country/countries are your family members or relatives temporarily working? Please consider both your household members and relatives not living with you. • Were you born in this country, [country], or not?

6. Not always easy to ask those questions… “Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?” Cuba

7. Gallup World Poll and Migration Some findings

8. Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate Percent wishing and planning to migrate in four world regions, countries weighted equally Wish Plan

9. Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate Percent wishing and planning to migrate in four world regions, countries weighted by population of adults aged 15 or older Want to migrate Plan to migrate

10. Wanting to migrate…planning to migrate Values in millions of people Want to migrate Plan to migrate

11. Wanting to migrate by country Top 15 Bottom 15

12. Planning to migrate by country Top 15 Bottom 15

13. Net Migration 2002-2006

14. Wishing to Migrate 2008 World Poll

15. Plans to Migrate World Poll 2008

16. Receiving Remittances World Poll 2008

17. Country Level Analysis of Migration Data • How do our World Poll migration data relate to net migration rates? • It’s a tricky process to convert our survey data to net migration data (e.g., Is our sample size sufficient?, Can we reliably generate the 150 country x 150 country matrix needed to calculate this?) We’re working on this. But we do know this: • The correlation between net migration rates between 2002 and 2006 and the percentage of people in a given country who receive remittances in 2008 is r = -.38 worldwide (and much higher everywhere except in Africa). • This may not sound very high but migration is less stable over time than people assume. The correlation between 2002-2006 net migration and 2008 net migration is only r = .56.

18. Best predictors for wanting and planning to migrate • Having a plan to start your own business . • Living in a low GDP country. • Being single. • Perceiving that hard work doesn’t pay off in your own society. • Living in an urban area (city or suburb). • Having a high household income (relative to others in your country) • Being young. • Being distressed (index of pain, worry, sadness and stress) • Being dissatisfied with your standard of living • Being male. • Being religious • Being unemployed

19. Putting It All Together: Total Number of Migration Factors Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? Percentage Wanting to Migrate Quintile 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th The more of the ten migration factors people endorse, the more likely they are to want to Migrate.

20. Putting It All Together: Total Number of Migration Factors Are you planning to move permanently to another country in the next 12 months? Percentage Planning to Migrate Quintile 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th The more of the ten emigration factors people endorse, the more likely they are to plan to Migrate.

21. Another Important Predictor of Plans to Migrate: Receipt of Remittances Ideally, if you could afford it, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? Percentage Wanting to Migrate Beginning with those who endorse five or more of the ten migration factors (the top quintile worldwide) those who receive remittances from someone abroad are still more likely to want to Migrate.

22. Another Important Predictor of Plans to Migrate: Receipt of Remittances Ideally, if you could afford it, would you like to move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country? Percentage Planning to Migrate Beginning with those who endorse five or more of the ten migration factors (the top quintile worldwide) those who receive remittances from someone abroad are twice as likely to plan to migrate.

23. The message behind remittances • What is the message that comes with • remittances? • The situation there is better than here • If he or she can do it why can’t I? • There is some one there I can count on

24. Jobs and migration Do you have a job? Percentage Wanting to Migrate

25. Jobs and migration Do you have a job? Percentage Planning to Migrate

26. Jobs and migration Are you satisfied with your job? Percentage Wanting to Migrate

27. Jobs and migration Are you satisfied with your job? Percentage Planning to Migrate

28. Having a plan to start your own business Are you planning to start your own business in the next 12 months? Percentage Planning to Migrate

29. Having a plan to start your own business for those who do NOT believe that working hard in their home country pays off: Are you planning to start your own business in the next 12 months? Percentage Planning to Migrate

30. Who are those who want to migrate? The concept of well being in the World Poll: “Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. Suppose we say that the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time?”

31. Who are those who want to migrate? The concept of well being in the World Poll: 10 Thriving 7 6 Struggling 5 4 Suffering 0 31

32. Who are those who want to migrate?

33. Who are those who are planning to migrate?

34. Latin America

35. For Latin Americans Migration is a “Win, Win” Deal When you think of the people who go to live in other countries, do you consider them to be a big problem or a big help for…. (% that think of migrants as problem/ help) For the sending country For their families For the receiving countries

36. Reasons to migrate In your opinion, which or the following is the single most important reason why people migrate from this country?

37. Where they plan to go to %

38. Expectations on remittances In the next twelve months, do you expect the amount of remittances this household receives, to increase, decrease or stay the same? % Surprised by current Financial turbulence

39. What do you do with remittances? If for some reason your household stopped receiving these remittances, what would it prevent you or your family from doing?

40. Using a loan with remittances as collateral If you were offered a loan for an amount equivalent to six months worth of remittances, and the monthly payments on it were reasonable enough for you to afford, would you take this loan or not?

41. Percentage of Residents with Relatives Living Abroad in 12 Latin American Countries

42. Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad & (2) Also Receive Remittances in 12 Latin American Countries Relatives Abroad Get Remittances

43. Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad, (2) Receive Remittances & (3) Also Desire to be Entrepreneurs In 12 Latin American Countries Relatives Abroad Get Remittances Entrepreneurs

44. Percentage of Those Who (1) Have Relatives Living Abroad, (2) Receive Remittances, (3) Desire to be Entrepreneurs, and (4) Feel Loans Are Hard to Get in 12 Latin American Countries Relatives Abroad Get Remittances Entrepreneurs Feel Loans are Hard to Get

45. Number of Residents Likely to be Interested in Small Business Loans in 12 Latin American Countries (in Millions of People)