Kevin Wall and Chris Rust

1. THE THIRD REPORT CARD: TRANSPORT FIXED INFRASTRUCTURE RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Kevin Wall and Chris Rust SATC Conference, Pretoria, July 2018

2. Contents: • Why a condition rating tool (the “report card”)? • Why by CSIR and SAICE? • What did 2006 report card say? • What did 2011 report card say? • What does 2017 report card say?

3. Why a report card?

4. Emphasise the importance of infrastructure – and need to measure its condition. • Bring importance of maintenance to the attention of decision makers. • Lobby for improvement.

5. Context: Infrastructure, in the form of public buildings, roads, water and sewerage systems, electricity and other services, supports quality of life and is the foundation of a healthy economy

6. The stock of public sector infrastructure is significant. Current replacement cost of this infrastructure, excluding that owned by the State-owned enterprises, is immense. Water and sanitation infrastructure alone of order of R1400 billion (DWS 2017.) (approx = half of national GDP)

7. “If the government spends its maintenance budget on fixing infrastructure only after it has already broken down, then it is effectively throwing away a large proportion of that budget – funds that could rather have been used elsewhere to improve the quality of life of its citizens. This is because it is much cheaper to carry out periodic preventative maintenance than to do repairs when infrastructure breaks down.” - NIMS

10. Why have these condition ratings been done by CSIR and SAICE?

12. ASCE and ICE approaches differ: Both are to inform and lobby, but different audiences, and different sophistication Backed up by material on websites – more detail, pro forma lobby letters, etc They started small They don’t necessarily have one every year The scope, format, etc have evolved over the years

13. Lessons from ASCE and ICE, taken to heart in South African report cards: KEEP IT SIMPLE Emphasise credibility Keep audience clearly in mind “Professional judgment”, not accurate statistics

14. Raise the flag – facts and figures speaking. Is not a decision-making tool for government – is a means to inform government’s decisions. Quality of life and economy – underpinned by infrastructure, and affect all of us. Why SAICE and CSIR put effort into this?

15. What we want to see happen: A co-ordinated, long term sustainable approach. Infrastructure maintenance must rank higher for limited public funds. Effective use of limited resources through partnerships. All levels of government must take difficult decisions. Concerted efforts at improving the skills base. Change societal demand behaviour.

16. CSIR (as in 2006 and 2011) undertook: The desktop research where it has the expertise. Organising research, by others, in key areas. Writing sector condition rating reports. SAICE undertook: Moderation by its sector experts. Scoring. Publication and launch. Dissemination. No contract. Just memorandum of understanding.

17. What did 2006 report card say?

18. A: In excellent condition and well maintained. B: In good condition and well maintained. C: Condition is acceptable, but will need investment in the current MTEF period to avoid serious deficiencies. D: Poorly maintained and at risk of failure. E: Unfit for purpose: has failed or is on the verge of failure, exposing the public to health and safety hazards. Needs immediate action. What the grades mean

21. What did the 2011 report card say?

22. Issues encountered in 2011 and 2017: Availability of information. Severe shortage of skills. Inadequate funding of maintenance. Systems nature of infrastructure services delivery (issues arising include: absence of life-cycle costing; physical condition, as opposed to functionality; and lowest capital price procurement). Sustainability (issues arising include: high levels of wastage; civic disrespect for infrastructure; and job creation potential).

26. Finding • Marginal improvement (overall: D+ to C-) • This average improvement: heavy investment, especially in ports, rail, airports and national roads. • However: “… the quality and reliability of basic infrastructure serving the majority of our citizens is poor and, in many places, getting worse. Urgent attention is required ….”

27. The 2017 issues, as in 2006 and 2011, but with: Struggle to get good data. Maintenance deferred for short-term expediency, with longer term consequences. More, and more destructive, “service delivery” protests. Greatly increased theft and vandalism. Limited success with, for example, water demand management. Higher profile for climate change resilience.

29. 2017 Methodology modifications • CSIR (mostly) sector situation reports. • desktop research (public domain); • soliciting from those with credible information (e.g. SANRAL, DWS, TFR, DHET); • by arrangement with CSIR clients, access to work done by the CSIR (e.g. DoH, TNPA); • supplemented by some primary research • Synthesis by SAICE IRC team • Review by divisions and sector leaders • Moderation and grading • Survey of member perception

31. Sectors covered 2017: Water and sanitation Solid waste management Roads Airports Ports Rail Electricity Hospitals and clinics Schools Higher education (new)

37. 2017 IRC Sector Grades • 10 Sectors • 29 Sub-sectors (3 new) • A = 1 • B = 5 • C = 8 • D = 13 • E = 2 • Trend: • 1 up • 5 down • 20 unchanged

38. We cannot afford to build only to permit decay… Maintenance is crucial! data and institutions To “predict and prevent” systems and capability To “find and fix” • Life-cycle approach • Repair vs Maintain • Wastage From “patch and pray”

39. The Right People and Relationships Increased capability, Reduced corruption Planning, Renewal, Predictive responses Asset manage-ment Data and Information Institutional strength Evidence based decisions

40. http://www.civils.org.za crust@csir.co.za kevin.wall@up.ac.za