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Loïc Baulier Raphaël Girardin Olivier Le Pape ( Agropcampus -Ouest) Martin Huret

Development of end-to-end models to describe the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems in the Eastern Channel. Loïc Baulier Raphaël Girardin Olivier Le Pape ( Agropcampus -Ouest) Martin Huret Morgane Travers- Trolet Sandrine Vaz Paul Marchal. Outline.

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Loïc Baulier Raphaël Girardin Olivier Le Pape ( Agropcampus -Ouest) Martin Huret

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  1. Colloquefranco-japonais 17-18 Octobre 2013 Development of end-to-end models to describe the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems in the Eastern Channel Loïc Baulier Raphaël Girardin Olivier Le Pape (Agropcampus-Ouest) Martin Huret Morgane Travers-Trolet Sandrine Vaz Paul Marchal

  2. Colloquefranco-japonais 17-18 Octobre 2013 Outline • From data collection to mapping information layers and spatial analyses (since 2003) • From spatial analyses to ecosystemmodeling (since 2011) • Fromconceptualmodelling to ecosystem-basedadvice-giving (prospect)

  3. Colloquefranco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013 From data collection to spatial analyses: Habitat models

  4. Colloquefranco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013 From data collection to spatial analyses: Habitat models Juveniles • Différent statisticalmodels • Sensitivity of model parameters RQ KRIGING GLM GAM Interpolated and estimated distribution of whiting habitat • Modelling essential habitats • Model uncertainty Adults Distribution of residuals Caractérisation environnementale des frayères de la morue

  5. Colloquefranco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013 From data collection to spatial analyses: Trophic networks

  6. From data collection to spatial analyses: Larvaetrajectories

  7. Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013 From data collection to spatial analyses: Fleetdynamics • Fishers’ behaviour is mainly driven by past activities but also… • Other fleets distribution: • Other maritime activities and spatial management: 12NM TRAFIC • Ability to forecast the future: forecast 2009 behaviour Passive gears 10-12m Passive gears <10m

  8. From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE OSMOSE MODEL Spatial multi-species individual-based model (IBM) • Full life cycle • Individual variability • Main processes: growth, predation, migration, reproduction, mortalities (natural, by predation, due to fishing,) Grid 6’ x 6’ Time step : 15 days Size-structuredmodel based on opportunistic predation • Based on spatio-temporalco-occurrence& size adequacy between prey and predator • Allowsemergence of local trophic interactions and dynamicfood web structure 14 species

  9. From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE ECO-MARS 3D MODEL OSMOSE MODEL Coupled to a Bio-physical model • Dynamics of plankton groups forced by physics (current, T°, light, salinity…) • Couplingthrough the predationprocess: plankton as preyfield for smallfish Cumulative annual production of diatoms (gC.m-2.an-1) in 2003

  10. From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE ECO-MARS 3D MODEL OSMOSE MODEL BENTHIC PREY FIELDS Ophiothrixfragilis

  11. Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013 From spatial analyses to ecosystemmodelling: ATLANTIS

  12. Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013 Fromecosystemmodelling to ecosystem-basedadvice

  13. Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013 Fromecosystemmodelling to ecosystem-basedadvice • Testing the sensitivity of complexecosystemmodelsusingadvancedmethods • Testingvarious scenarios consideredusing OSMOSE & ATLANTIS

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