Guidance on the use of models for the European air quality directive An activity of WG1 FAIRMODE

1. Guidance on the use of models for the European air quality directive An activity of WG1 FAIRMODE Bruce Denby1*, Steinar Larssen1*, Cristina Guerreiro1*, John Douros2*, Nicolas Moussiopoulos2*, Lia Fragkou2*, Michael Gauss3, Helge Olesen4, Ana Isabel Miranda5 1 Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Norway 2 Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece 3 Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway 4 NERI, Denmark 5 University of Aveiro, Portugal *European Topic Centre for Air Quality and Climate Change (ETC/ACC) FAIRMODE kick off meeting, October 2008, Cavtat Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

2. Overview • Why use models? • Aim and audience of the guidance document • Contents of the guidance document • Chapter 2: Summary of the 2008 air quality directive • Chapter 3: Interpretation of the directive in regard to modelling • Chapter 4: Reporting when using models • Chapter 8: Special topics • Status • Contributions and examples • Future Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

3. Why use models in regard to the Directive? • Models can provide assessment within zones in areas where monitoring is not carried out. • The number of monitoring sites can be reduced significantly. • Models can be used to develop and detail measures taken to reduce poor air quality. • Models can be used for the evaluation of source contributions. Why use models? • The spatial coverage of monitoring is extremely limited. Modelling can provide complete spatial coverage of air quality. • Modelling can be applied prognostically. • Modelling provides an improved understanding of the causes and links that determine air quality. Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

4. Why not use models? • Models require extensive input data, particularly emissions and meteorology, which are not always reliable or easily acquired. • Models remain uncertain in their predictions and extensive validation is required before models can be applied and believed. • The ability of models to represent the real world is very limited, e.g. spatial resolution and process descriptions. Models remain a representation of reality. • Effective and quality controlled modelling requires expert users under most situations. Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

5. Audience of the guidance document • use by authorities, consultancies and research bodies involved in air quality modelling for assessment and mitigation planning that address the European air quality directives. Aim of the guidance document • to provide guidance for the use of air quality modelling in regard to the new air quality directive (2008/50/EC) and the 4’th daughter directive on heavy metals in ambient air (2004/107/EC) • to promote best practices in air quality modelling and assessment • to provide a centralised reference document for the application of models in regard to the Directive. Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

6. Understanding the Directive WG2 activity Examples and applications Expanded information and examples Contents of the guidance document (version 2.6) Chapter 1. Introduction Chapter 2. Summary of the 2008 air quality directive Chapter 3. Interpretation of the directive in regard to modelling Chapter 4. Reporting when using models Chapter 5. Model validation, quality assurance and control Chapter 6. Application of models for assessment Chapter 7. Application of models for air quality planning Chapter 8. Special topics References Annexes I - IV Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

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8. Chapter 2: Summary of the 2008 air quality directive Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

9. Chapter 2: Summary of the 2008 air quality directive Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

10. Chapter 3: Interpretation of the directive in regard to modelling (applications) Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

11. Chapter 3: Interpretation of the directive in regard to modelling (when can they be used?) Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

12. Chapter 3: Interpretation of the directive in regard to modelling (quality objectives) Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

13. Chapter 4: Reporting when using models Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

14. Chapter 8: Special topics Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

15. Status of the document • Current version 2.6 is a preliminary draft version • First draft version of Chapters 1 – 4 are complete • Chapter 5 will be developed based on further input and WG 2 • Chapters 6 – 8 require relevant text and a range of examples • The entire document requires review and consolidation Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

16. How can you contribute? • Contributions to the examples, both short summaries (1 paragraph + figure) and longer examples (2 pages + figures) • Reviewers/contributors to the separate chapters • Feedback on the applicability and usefulness of the document • References to similar national guidance documents • References to public dissemination web sites • Submission will be through the website Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

17. Examples required Annex III: Example case studies Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

18. 7.1 Air quality plans Example: Integrated Monitoring and Assessment in Urban Air Quality Management in Copenhagen, Denmark Integrated Monitoring and Assessment (IMA) is defined as the combined use of measurements and model calculations. The use of IMA has been the guiding principle for assessment of air quality and deposition in Denmark within different areas. A comprehensive overview of the Danish approach to IMA is provided by Hertel et al. (2007). This example focuses on how IMA is applied in urban air quality assessment and management in Copenhagen, Denmark. The city of Copenhagen has about 600,000 inhabitants and the Greater Copenhagen Area has about 1.8 million inhabitants. The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) operates the Danish Urban Air Quality Monitoring Programme … Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

19. 7.3 Transboundary air pollution Example: Application of the EMEP model for determining transboundary contributions to air quality The mandate of EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme, http://www.emep.int) is to provide sound scientific support for the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), in particular in the areas of atmospheric monitoring, modelling, emission inventories/projections, and integrated assessments. Each year EMEP provides information on transboundary pollution fluxes inside the EMEP area (including all countries that have signed the Convention, and their surroundings), relying on information on emission sources and monitoring data provided by the Parties to the Convention. In 2008 the EMEP area has been extended to include the EECCA countries (Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia). An integral part of the annual EMEP reports are the Source-Receptor matrices, which … Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

20. Future of the document • After the EIONET and Cavtat meetings an assessment of comments and ideas will be made and input collected • The document will be updated and ‘finished’ Chapters reviewed • Second draft of the document to be completed by the end of 2008 and will be available on the FAIRMODE web site • The document will be progressively updated until June 2009 • A third draft will be prepared for autumn 2009 • A workshop will be held in autumn 2009 to ‘ratify’ the document • The document, as well as other FAIRMODE activities, will be actively promoted at conferences, workshops and meetings • The document will be regularly updated, e.g. • results of WG2 and other community activities • other guidance activities from the Commission • changes in reporting requirements will be included Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat

21. For information and contributions contact • Bruce Denby bde@nilu.no • FAIRMODE website • http://pandora.meng.auth.gr/modnet • Thank you Kick off meeting, 2008, Cavtat