Conflict Selection Activity

1. Conflict Selection Activity STAND Chapter retreats Spring 2009

2. Directions • Split into seven groups • Review “redacted” conflict description • For each conflict: • Area of Concern or no? • Why or why not? • Optional: guess the conflict • Present findings and explanation • Discuss

3. Conflict A Since mid-2005, more than 10,000 homes have been burned and nearly 300,000 people have fled their homes due to the increasing violence in Country A. Conflict between rebel groups from the north and the central government has led to an increase in the levels of banditry, looting, and widespread human rights violations. In response to rebel movements, the government of Country A launched a series of indiscriminate counterinsurgency offensives, terrorizing the civilian population of the country. According to Humanitarian and Development Partnership Team in Country A, nearly one in four civilians in the country is affected by violence, with residents of the northern regions at particular risk. This includes killing, severe torture and forced displacement carried out by all armed groups in the country. Security in Country A improved throughout 2008; however there continue to be reports of atrocities committed against civilians by government forces and rebels as both groups appear able to violate human rights with impunity. Bandits also target civilians along the country's northern borders, killing and kidnapping for financial gain. The signature of a comprehensive peace agreement in June of 2008 may be a step towards stability in Country A, so long as all parties implement their obligations.

4. Conflict A: Central African Republic Area of Concern? Yes Why? HCB 2008 rating: 3 Systematic targeting of civilians by governments and rebel groups for killing and severe torture Chronic violence Refugees in CAR

5. Conflict B Country B has a highly stratified society in which the traditionally rich families of Ethnicity B descent have benefited from Country B’s wealth to a far greater degree than the majority mixed-race population. Widespread poverty and the lack of opportunities for social mobility provided an environment conducive to the rise of left-wing insurgents. But the lucrative returns from Illegal Trade B1 and Illegal Trade B2 now dominate the rebels' agenda, and have largely replaced ideological motivations. Peace talks with the main left-wing rebel group, Rebel Group B1, collapsed in 2002. At the other end of the political spectrum are illegal right-wing paramilitary groups, who are sometimes in the pay of drug cartels and landowners, and sometimes backed by elements in Country B’s army and the police. Efforts are under way to demobilize these groups, which have been particularly active in the north-west where they have targeted human rights workers, peasants suspected of helping left-wing guerrillas, street children and other marginal groups. Alongside politically-motivated blood-letting is Illegal Trade B1 crime, which has become the most common cause of death after cancer and has fuelled kidnapping. Together with the political violence, this has made Country B one of the most violent countries in the world, deterring investors and tourists alike.

6. Conflict B: Colombia Area of Concern? No Why not? HCB 2008 rating: 4 Not sufficient evidence of systematicity: civilian death is a by-product of drug crime and clashes between rebels and government FARC rebels in Colombia

7. Conflict C Since January 2007, a resurgence of violence in Country C has killed thousands and displaced more than one million non-combatant civilians. Insurgents in Country C, the transitional government's armed forces, and Neighboring Country C1 troops have devastated Capital C and its surrounding areas with indiscriminate bombings and targeting of Country C civilians. In the early part of 2008, Amnesty International reported that the killing of civilians in Conflict C has become routine. The United Nations called the current situation in Conflict C the "world's worst humanitarian disaster" in December 2007 In early June, Government Body C and one of the opposition groups signed a ceasefire agreement in an attempt to bring stability and security to the country. Continued violence in the aftermath of this deal, combined with the refusal of the Insurgent Group C militia to sign the agreement, raises questions on whether this agreement will succeed. Recent violence has targeted humanitarian aid workers in Conflict C, exacerbating a food crisis that has gripped the county in recent years.

8. Conflict C: Somalia Area of Concern? Yes Why? HCB 2008 rating: 5 Civilians subject to both indiscriminant and intentional violence Conflict likely to continue Ethiopian troops in Somali capital of Mogadishu

9. Conflict D The civil war between the government of Country D and the separatist Rebel Group D1 reignited in early 2006 and continues today. Civilians in Country D are subject to stray and indiscriminate bombing, shelling, and gunfire during battles between the rebels and the government. Civilians have been "disappeared" and killed, sometimes as a public spectacle, presumably out of suspected links with the Rebel Group D1. Government forces and their proxies have been granted full immunity for such crimes, which have not been investigated and have not led to convictions of those responsible. Rebel Group D is also responsible for violence against civilians. They have, continued and increased the use of suicide bombings throughout the country, targeting transportation facilities and political figures. The rebels are also responsible for the widespread forced recruitment of child soldiers. Between 2005 and 2008, more than 5,000 people have died as a result of fighting between the government, its proxies, and Rebel Group D. Since the ceasefire between the government and the Rebel Group D collapsed in 2006, nearly 500,000 people have been displaced by violence. Many of the displaced are in rebel-held territory, where they are unable to receive consistent humanitarian assistance and are used as human shields by the Rebel Group D. In short, all sides are responsible for crimes against civilians.

10. Conflict D: Sri Lanka Area of Concern? Yes Why? HCB 2008 rating: 5 Both indiscriminant and intentional targeting of civilians by both government and rebel forces Likely to worsen as government offensive intensifies LTTE rebel fighters in Sri Lanka

11. Conflict E Civilians in the eastern part of Country E remain victims of mass killings, severe torture and widespread rape at the hands of numerous armed groups. Over 1.5 million people are displaced throughout the country, with over one million of these in Province E1 alone. 250,000 of these have been displaced since August of 2008. An estimated 700 civilians died in violence between government forces and rebel militias in 2008. Additionally, rapes take place at an epidemic level in Country E, with estimates of more than 10,000 rapes have taken place in Province E1 and Province E2 in 2008 alone. In Province E3, more than 1,000 civilians have been killed in massacres committed by the Militia E1, these attacks have killed more people in two months that all other groups had in 2008. All armed groups in Country E have committed widespread mass atrocities against civilians, including rape, torture, forced displacement, summary execution and murder. There is substantial evidence that indicates violence is targeted against civilians on the basis of ethnic identity.

12. Conflict E: Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Area of Concern? Yes Why? HCB 2008 rating: 4 Systematic targeting of civilians by all sides Violence often relates to lack of rule of law, but still intentionally targeting civilians Large scale Includes unprecedented levels of gender-based violence New LRA threat Refugee woman in eastern DRC

13. Conflict F Country F1 and the people of Autonomous Region F, which is population by an ethnic and religious minority, have been in conflict for almost a century over the question of Autonomous Region F’s independence. Most of Autonomous Region F’s religious centers were destroyed in the 1960s and 1970s, and thousands of Autonomous Region F’s citizens are believed to have been killed during periods of repression and martial law. While Country F1 supposedly eased its grip on Autonomous Region F in the 1980s, rights groups say Country F1’s government continues to violate human rights, accusing the government of political, religious, and cultural repression. The government denies any abuses. In March 2008, security forces from Country F1 violently suppressed peaceful protests by religious leaders in Autonomous Region F. Several protestors were reportedly killed, and over a thousand citizens of Autonomous Region F were detained in the following months. The ongoing unrest in Autonomous Region F may have caused the death of up to 400 people at the hands of Country F1’s security forces. However, the lack of verifiable information makes this difficult to confirm.

14. Conflict F: Tibet Area of Concern? No Why not? HCB 2008 rating: 2 No verifiable reports of mass casualties Targeted violence against civilians does not appear to be ongoing Tibetan monks protest against China in March 2008

15. Conflict G The nearly two-decade long conflict between Country G and separatists in Region G1 intensified during the first half of 2008, with several instances of reported military provocation by both sides. The tensions culminated in an invasion of Region G1 by Country G troops in the beginning of August. Fighting between Country G troops and militias from Region G1continued for several days, with Neighboring Country G1 launching air strikes against Country G in support of Region G1 separatists. According to media reports, the fighting left as many as 200 Country G civilians and 133 Region G1 civilians dead, and displaced more than 22,000 citizens in Country G. During the fighting, it appears that citizens of Country G’s ethnic majority residing in Region G1 were forcibly driven from Region G1 due to their ethnicity, prompting accusations of ethnic cleansing. While outright hostilities have ceased, the situation in Region G1 remains tense, with assassination attempts, bomb attacks, and shelling frequent.

16. Conflict G: Georgia/South Ossetia Area of Concern? No Why not? HCB rating: 4 Not large-scale in terms of civilian casualties Majority of deaths comprised of soldiers from both sides Not ongoing Georgian soldiers in South Ossetia