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Fukushima and Chernobyl: comparative study

Fukushima and Chernobyl: comparative study. Dr Ian Fairlie Consultant on Radiation in the Environment London, United Kingdom www.ianfairlie.org. March 12: Explosion at Unit 1. March 14 – Explosion at Unit 3. plus 2 more explosions.

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Fukushima and Chernobyl: comparative study

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  1. Fukushima and Chernobyl: comparative study Dr Ian FairlieConsultant on Radiation in the EnvironmentLondon, United Kingdom www.ianfairlie.org

  2. March 12: Explosion at Unit 1

  3. March 14 – Explosion at Unit 3

  4. plus 2 more explosions • On March 15, at 06.10 am, “explosive event” in fuel pond at unit 2, followed seconds later by “explosive event” in spent fuel pond at unit 4, then a fire • On March 16 at 05.45 am, a major explosion at Unit 4 • No TV video footage as explosions occurred early in the mornings

  5. Damage to Reactors 4,3,2,1

  6. Damage to Units 4,3

  7. http://www.youtube.com/v/nQ6lCR71Yik

  8. Tanks at Fukushima

  9. FUKUSHIMA - present situation • contamin water from cooling reactors to ground and ocean (well = 54 kBq/L Cs-137) = 600 x Japanese limit http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20140213_22.html • unresolved = how to reliably store v large volumes of contaminated water • radioactive soil wastes from decontamination • plight of ~140,000 evacuees • plight of ~12,000 workers exposed to <250 mSv • whereabouts of melted reactor cores? • spent fuels in precarious ponds?

  10. Fukushima: in a Nutshell over 140,000 people still evacuated: many permanently 10,000s cases of post-trauma stress disorder, depression, anxiety disorders from evacuations 2,000 deaths from evacuations from ill-health and suicides ~10,000 workers exposed, some up to 250 mSv ~5,000 fatal cancers over next 60 years (from UNSCEAR) plus similar (unquantified) strokes, CVS diseases as yet unquantified % of radiogenic thyroid cancers 8% of Japan (30,000 km2) including parts of Tokyo, contaminated >10 kBq/m2 economic losses - between $300 and $500 billion

  11. Chernobyl USSR 1986

  12. 137Cs contamination at Chernobyl and Fukushimatwo areas approximately same scale. The yellow/orange/red areas around Chernobyl correspond approximately to the green/yellow/red areas around Fukushima re contamination levels. Thanks to Dr R Wakeford

  13. Source Terms PBq = petabecquerel = 1015 Bq, ie 1 quadrillion Bq

  14. Collective Doses (after 80 years) source UNSCEAR 2013 page 60

  15. Populations exposed by Chernobyl average dose - mSv source: UNSCEAR 2008

  16. Areas contaminated >10 kBq/m2 Cs-137

  17. Other comparisons

  18. Future Consequences at Fukushima Using Chernobyl as a guide, we can expect

  19. George Santayanaphilosopher (1863 - 1952) governments unable to learn from history .... are condemned to repeat it

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