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MSD II: Sensitivity Analysis

This analysis compares the tooling cost and ROI for different pan sizes in the HFA quote, with a focus on Large and Small pans. Additional solutions, such as pursuing quotes from other suppliers and testing different insert options, are suggested. Questions about other supplier responses, ROI, and cheesecake schedule are raised.

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MSD II: Sensitivity Analysis

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  1. MSD II: Sensitivity Analysis Zach Alsheimer, Casey Bauman, Matt Gundrum, Garth Sinclair

  2. HFA Quote Tooling cost for each size would be between $80,000-$90,000 40 gauge on the 5” Smooth Wall Pan, packed 500 per case 50 gauge on the 8” Smooth Wall Pan, packed 250 per case Full Curl Rim Style Signed 2 Year Agreement required Initial Lead-Time 8-10 weeks Minimum Run/Order 250,000 pans each size.  Minimum Annual Volume 1,000,000 pans each size Approximate Case Cost:   5” Pan $110.00/cs   8” Pan $95.00/cs

  3. HFA Quote Comparison HFA Estimate: Large: $0.38 Small: $0.22 Key Lime Pie Benchmark: Large: $0.12 Small: $0.09

  4. Effect on ROI

  5. Sensitivity Analysis To break even yearly: Large: $0.34 Small: $0.20 *This will never pay off cost of tooling To save at least $10,000 yearly: Large: $0.32 Small: $0.18 *This has a 20 year pay back period

  6. Sensitivity Analysis To save at least $40,000 yearly: Large: $0.22 Small: $0.15 *This will have a 5 year pay back period

  7. Going Forward • Pursue quotes from other suppliers. • Perhaps the company that currently manufactures Key Lime Pie Tins (D&W) • Additional Insert Testing • Slicing of cheesecakes in tins • Some possible solutions…

  8. Questions • Has Wegmans heard back from any other suppliers? • ROI • Sample tins for depanning experimentation • Cheesecake schedule for this week?

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