Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

1. Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/CarbonCycle.ppt

2. Acknowledgement • Aslam Khalil, PSU Physics • Clark College

3. Outline Introduction/ Motivation Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change Recent temperature record Past CO2 Present CO2 A simple mathematical/conceptual model Future projections Future emissions Discussion

4. Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing

8. No Atmosphere

9. Today’s Atmosphere

10. John Tyndall ~1867 “The aqueous vapour constitutes a local dam, by which the temperature at the earth's surface is deepened; the dam, however, finally overflows, and we give to space all that we receive from the sun.”

11. John Tyndall ~1867 “Aqueous vapour is a blanket more necessary to the vegetable life of England than clothing is to man. Remove for a single summer-night the aqueous vapour from the air which overspreads this country, and you would assuredly destroy every plant capable of being destroyed by a freezing temperature. The warmth of our fields and gardens would pour itself unrequited into space, and the sun would rise upon an island held fast in the iron grip of frost.”

12. Greenhouse Gases Water Vapor Carbon Dioxide Ozone Methane Nitrous Oxide Chlorofluorocarbons

13. Cooling to offset warming

14. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

17. Carbon Dioxide in Prehistoric times

18. Vostok Ice Core data

21. http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/CO2assign.htmhttp://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/CO2assign.htm

22. http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htmhttp://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm

23. http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htmhttp://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm

24. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.htmlhttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.html

26. US Carbon emissions through 2004 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

27. China’s carbon emission through 2004 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

28. Russia’s carbon emission through 2004 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

29. India’s carbon emission through 2004 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

30. Fossil Fuel Reserves ~40 yrs Oil ~80 yrs Natural gas ~200 years coal

31. World Population http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

32. Fossil Fuel ReservesOil http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

33. http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.htmlhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

34. Fossil Fuel ReservesNatural Gas http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

35. Fossil Fuel Reservescoal http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

37. http://chooseclimate.org/jcm/index.html

38. http://chooseclimate.org/jcm/index.html

40. http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/CarbonCycle.ppt