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Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Dr. Robert MacKay. Outline. Introduction/ Motivation Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change Recent temperature record Past CO2 Present CO2 A simple mathematical/conceptual model Future projections Future emissions

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Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

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  1. Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dr. Robert MacKay

  2. Outline Introduction/ Motivation Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change Recent temperature record Past CO2 Present CO2 A simple mathematical/conceptual model Future projections Future emissions Discussion

  3. Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing

  4. No Atmosphere http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/meteor/Animations/greenhouse.jnlp

  5. Today’s Atmosphere

  6. Greenhouse Gases Water Vapor Carbon Dioxide Ozone Methane Nitrous Oxide Chlorofluorocarbons

  7. Cooling to offset warming

  8. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

  9. pH change between 1751 and 1990s. Estimate are that globally ocean surface water pH levels have decreased by as much as .12 units for atmospheric CO2 change from 280 to 360 ppm. http://www.terrain.org/articles/21/burns.htm

  10. Carbon Dioxide in Prehistoric times

  11. Vostok Ice Core data

  12. http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/CO2assign.htmhttp://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/CO2assign.htm

  13. http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htmhttp://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm

  14. Because of long time delays for the carbon cycle, drastically different scenarios yield very similar results for a 20 year time horizon, but drastically different result for a 50 to 100 year time horizon. http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm

  15. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.htmlhttp://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.html

  16. US Carbon emissions through 2004 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

  17. China’s carbon emission through 2004 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

  18. Russia’s carbon emission through 2004 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

  19. India’s carbon emission through 2004 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

  20. Fossil Fuel Reserves ~40 yrs Oil ~80 yrs Natural gas ~200 years coal

  21. World Population http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

  22. Fossil Fuel ReservesOil http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

  23. http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.htmlhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

  24. Fossil Fuel ReservesNatural Gas http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

  25. Fossil Fuel Reservescoal http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html

  26. http://chooseclimate.org/jcm/index.html

  27. http://chooseclimate.org/jcm/index.html

  28. A -developing countries B-Industrialize countries

  29. http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/CarbonCycle.ppt

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