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Centre for Energy, Environment and Health

Centre for Energy, Environment and Health. Meteorology / climate Ref.-year: 2000. Population. Global emission data. Air pollution, transport and deposition. Health effects. Exposure and mortality. Emissions. Environmental impact and damage. Energy systems. Technologies.

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Centre for Energy, Environment and Health

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  1. Centre for Energy, Environment and Health Meteorology / climate Ref.-year: 2000 Population Global emission data Air pollution, transport and deposition Health effects. Exposure and mortality Emissions Environmental impact and damage Energy systems Technologies Energy system optimisation model(s) Externality cost functions Economic growth Scenarios for energy system 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 Global externality cost for CO2

  2. Input to the CEEH Machine and output • Economic development • Demographics • Global emission data • Meteorology • Technology data • Fuel costs • External environmental costs • Health costs from energy conversion • External cost for each emission spices • Optimal investment patterns for the Scandinavian energy system – with focus on Denmark • Fuel use and emission from the energy system

  3. Scenarios at different levels Global Scenarios IPCC SRES A1B Air pollution models Emissions Regional Scenarios (Scandinavia) DG TrenEU-Commission External costs Emissions Energy demand Energy system model Local Scenarios Denmark ADAM-EMMA Energy demand Electricity and DH price

  4. IPCC A1B • A1 storyline and scenario family: a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies

  5. IPCC A1B

  6. DG Tren • Projections made for the European Commission in the PRIMES model. GDP growth Electricity demand District heating demand For Norway, Sweden, Finland and Germany

  7. EMMA-fremskrivning Danmark – input til EMMA ADAM Økonomisk udvikling fordelt på erhverv Energiforbrug fordelt på erhverv EMMA Elmodel bolig etc. IEA + ??? Brændselspriser Teknologisk udvikling Elforbrug Fjernvarmeforbrug Andre brændsler Transportenergi Elpris Balmorel

  8. Transport Economic development Person transport (pers.km) Gods transport (tonkm) Bus Bus Car Car Train ...... Train ...... Electric Plug-in Gasoline/ diesel Hybrid ...

  9. Thank you for your attention www.ceeh.dk

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