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Short form Analytic ReporT

Djibouti Unlikely to Suspend US Drone Flights from Camp Lemonnier. Short form Analytic ReporT. Source: http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-PT033_drones_G_20110920220004.jpg.

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Short form Analytic ReporT

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  1. UNCLASSIFIED Djibouti Unlikely to Suspend US Drone Flights from Camp Lemonnier Short form Analytic ReporT Source: http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-PT033_drones_G_20110920220004.jpg Sources: Camp -- http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg Map -- https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/dj.html Djibouti Andy Analyst Intelligence Analyst, US Africa Command - Djibouti 14 January 2013

  2. Executive Summary • No pressure from Djiboutian government • U.S. military presence helps Djibouti’s economy • Regional partners support drone operations Estimate: Djibouti unlikely to suspend drone flights A Predator drone crash site in Djibouti (May 2011) Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg UNCLASSIFIED

  3. Background • Camp Lemonnier provides local economic boost • USD38 million lease – 3% of GDP • USD1.4 billion base expansion Camp Lemonnier - Djibouti Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg UNCLASSIFIED

  4. Discussion • Five crashes: January 2011 – February 2012 • No public pressure to suspend operations • Djiboutian government continues to support Camp Lemonnier No pressure from Djiboutian government Drone Crashes in Djibouti Source: http://dronewarsuk.wordpress.com/drone-crash-database/ UNCLASSIFIED

  5. Discussion • Camp Lemonnier provides local economic boost • USD38 million lease – 3% of GDP • USD1.4 billion base expansion U.S. Military Presence Helps Djibouti’s Economy Djibouti’s 2011 GDP was USD 1.1 billion. Source: Jane’s Information Group. (2012). North Africa Security Assessment. Jane’s Sentinel, 31. UNCLASSIFIED

  6. Discussion • Statements of support from: • Yemen • Ongoing drone operations from: • Ethiopia • Lessens pressure on Djiboutian government Regional partners support drone operations • Somalia • Seychelles Source: http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BC588A_DRONE_D_20110920201505.jpg UNCLASSIFIED

  7. Comments • No civilian deaths in previous crashes • February 2012 crash was near residential area • Civilian deaths may lead Djibouti to request: • Investigation • Plan to address crashes Civilian deaths may increase pressure Source: Guardian UK Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/10/09/Others/Images/2012-10-09/TAB_S-71349812203.jpg UNCLASSIFIED

  8. Analytic Confidence • Analytic confidence = High • Source reliability = High (40.65) • Analyst’s Expertise = High • Subject Complexity = Medium • Time Available = Adequate Analysis of Competing Hypotheses UNCLASSIFIED

  9. Questions? Analyst Contact Information Andy Analyst US Africa Command – Djibouti Email: AAnalyst@mercyhurst.edu Full report available by request. UNCLASSIFIED

  10. References • http://dronewarsuk.wordpress.com/drone-crash-database/ • http://djiboutitoday.com/m_news.php?ID=181 • Jane’s Information Group. (2012). North Africa Security Assessment. Jane’s Sentinel, 31. • http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-10-25/world/35499227_1_drone-wars-drone-operations-military-base • http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-09-29/world/35497110_1_drone-strikes-drone-attacks-aqap • http://allafrica.com/stories/201202270467.html • http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-10-27/world/35276956_1_drone-flights-drone-operations-reaper-drones UNCLASSIFIED

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