UCAR Leadership Academy January 2007 Tim Killeen NCAR Director

1. UCAR Leadership Academy January 2007 Tim Killeen NCAR Director

2. NCAR’s Role

3. The need to mount an attack on the fundamental atmospheric problems on a scale commensurate with their global nature and importance The fact that the extent of such an attack requires facilities and technological assistance beyond those that can properly be made available at individual universities The fact that the difficulties of the problems are such that they require the best talents from various disciplines to be applied to them in a coordinated fashion, on a scale not feasible in a university department The fact that such an Institute offers the possibility of preserving the natural alliance of research and education without unbalancing the university programs NCAR’s Role in the Atmospheric Sciences Tim Killeen Presentation to the Committee on Strategic Guidance for NSF’s Support of the Atmospheric Sciences, October 14, 2004 “1959: There are four compelling reasons for establishing a National Institute for Atmospheric Research:”

4. NCARToday Computing/Cyberinfrastructure Services:Supercomputing,Data Services, Networking Observation Services:Aircraft and Ground-based Measurement Systems, Field Programs Science:Community Models, Climate, Chemistry, Meteorology, Sun-Earth System, Environmental and Societal Impacts Applications:Aviation, Ground Transportation, Homeland Security, etc. Education:Informal, K-12, Undergraduate and graduate students, Postdocs, Diversity programs, National and International Capacity-building

5. Institution Rankings in the GeosciencesSorted by Citations – June 2006 NSF Review of NCAR Management, March 20 - 22 • “[The NCAR] program [is] of great value to NSF and the nation” • “[NCAR] has used its resources wisely and represents an important U.S. scientific asset.” • “The vision for the future of NCAR outlined in the strategic plan is both truly exciting and important for the country and indeed the entire world.” • Every recent review has asked NCAR to further its excellence Data courtesy of ISI Essential Science Indicators™ – Powered by ISI Web of Knowledge™

6. Challenges

7. World Population Growth 1750-2100 10 Billions 8 6 4 Developing Countries 2 Industrial Countries 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: Population Reference Bureau

8. From M. Prather University of California at Irvine

9. “Global Warming Is 'Real,' Report Finds” NY Times, Jan 13, 2000

10. “If the floods don't get you... Climate change will have dramatic and widespread effects” Financial Times (London), Jan 22, 2000

11. “World Bank Sets Up Fund to Assist Pollution-Control Effort” The Washington Post, Jan 19, 2000

12. “Conservationists Win Battles but Fear War Is Lost” NY Times, Jan 11, 2000

13. “Radioactive Waste and Unpaid Bills” NY Times, Jan 4, 2000

14. “Combating West Nile Virus” NY Times, Dec 20, 1999

15. “EPA Is Ordering 392 Plants to Cut Pollution in Half” NY Times, Dec 18, 1999

16. “Sprawl Quickens Its Attack On Forests” NY Times, Dec 7, 1999

17. “Arctic Thawing May Jolt Sea's Climate Belt” NY Times, Dec 7, 1999

18. Plans

19. NCAR’s New Strategic Plan, 2006 Revised, 2006 NCAR scientists, management and community participants Approved by UCAR Board of Trustees October 2006

20. 2006 Strategic Plan • NCAR as… • Integrator - Generating and disseminating knowledge and information across disciplines and from many sources • Innovator - Creating new practices and methods across our service, research and education activities • Community Builder - Organizing and supporting the research community

21. NCAR in the Next Decade:Traditional and New Modalities • Enhance science/facility integrative activities, for example: • Community Climate System Model evolution into “Earth System Model”: carbon, nitrogen cycles, chemistry, human processes • Airborne, satellite, and ground observing systems: instrument development, miniaturization, tele-science, data systems, field campaigns, etc. • Define and implement new large scale integrative science activities in close cooperation with the community, for example: • Climate/clouds/water cycle/ecosystems • Impacts/adaptation/vulnerability/sustainability

22. NCAR in the next Decade (continued) • Accelerate Scientific Progress with new cyberinfrastructure: • Tools: Data Assimilation, Grids, Earth System Modeling Framework, GIS • Services: Capacity and capability computing, Community Data Portal • Build Deeper Connections - for example: • With the Universities and other partners • With the operational forecasting community • With minority-serving universities & colleges by exchanging visitors, hosting students, and providing technical assistance • With business and government decision-makers through sustained dialogue, answering questions, and creating new information products • With the international science community

23. Challenges and Opportunities: NCAR as an Integrator • The Overarching Challenge:Service and leadership for the community • Need to address complex, large-scale, important science problems. NCAR will play a leading role. • Need to build and deploy enabling cyberinfrastructure and observing facilities. NCAR will play a leading role. • Need to further define community model concept and process science. NCAR will play a leading role. • Need community and capacity-building: public, K-12, postdocs, grad students, faculty, teams, etc.NCAR will play a leading role. • Need to further develop a diverse and creative workforce.NCAR will play a leading role.

24. Organization & Budget

25. CISL EOL ESSL RAL SERE COSMIC NSDL JOSS GLOBE VSP UNIDATA Member Institutions Board of Trustees UCAR President Richard Anthes Corporate Affairs Jack Fellows, VP Finance & Administration Katy Schmoll, VP UCAR Programs Jack Fellows, Director Kathryn Strand, Manager, Budget and Administration NCAR Tim Killeen, Director Larry Winter, Deputy Director Education and Outreach Roberta Johnson COMET DLESE

27. FY2006 NCAR Expenditures by Fund Source

28. NCAR All-Funds Summary NCAR All Funds Summary 160,000 HIAPER Funds 140,000 120,000 TOTAL 100,000 NSF SPEC (exp) NON-NSF (exp) OTHER BASE TRSF $ x 1,000 80,000 USWRP OPP FUNDS 60,000 STRAT INITIATIVES NSF BASE (Target) 40,000 20,000 0 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06

29. A Few Recent Highlights

30. The Nested Regional Climate ModelIntegrating WRF and CCSM to model across scales Precipitable Water Whole-year animation for 1996 • A 2-way Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) provides an integrating research tool that is essential to address upscaling and downscaling issues. • More information: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/modeling/nrcm/

31. Custom designed for unprecedented research Satellite communications allow greater, real-time participation from investigators and students at remote locations Delivered on time and under budget Facilities: The High-Performance Instrumented Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER)

32. Projections of Degradation of Near-Surface Permafrost with CCSM3 Animation of Near-surface Permafrost Changes

33. Solar B (Hinode) Launch, Sep 22, 2006 HAO-developed Spectral Polarimeter: Already providing line of sight magnetic fields with good signal to noise for the quiet Sun

34. Sample uplink message Flight information Web-based Turbulence Display System for Pilots • /EXPERIMENTAL TURBULENCE FI UAL███/AN N███UA UPLINK • -- 05 Sep 2006 21:38:13Z FL 300 orient. 83 deg • '+'=waypoint, '*'=route, 'X'=aircraft at 38.3N, 80.6W • ' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light, 'M'=mod, 'S'=severe • -----------------------(52 to IAD)------------------------ • | * • | * • MM | * • MM | * • MM | l lll M * • MMM | lollo * • lMl | oolo * • l | oo * • | * • |080 * • M |llllllll ll * • MM |lllllllllllllll l * • lll |lllllllllollllllll * • MMl l |MMllllllllooollllll * • MMl l |MMMl lllllllllollll * • MM l |MMMM llll llol ll * • MM | MMMM ll * • MMS | MMM * • MSS | MM * • MSS +PUTTZ + • MSS | * SSSSSS • MSS M | l S*SSSSSSSSS • MSS M | lllS*SSSMSSSSS • MSS l | lSMS*SMMMMSSSS • MSS l | SSMM*MMMMMMMM • MSS M | MM*SMMMMMMMMlllll • MSS M | M*SSMMMMMMMMllllll • MMM M | *MMMMMMMMMMMMMllll • MMM | * MMlllMMMlMllllllM • lll |040 * lllllllllllllllllMMl • lll | * llllllllllllll • llS | * llllllllll • MMS | * lllllll • SSS | * lllll • SSS | * lll • MMS | * l ll • MM | * • MM M | MM*MM o • MSS | SM*MM • MMM | MM *MM l • MM | MMMSS S * l l • lM | MMMSSM * lllllll o • l |l MMMM * lllllo • | MMMMM * llllll • | M * lllll • | SSS * llll • ll | SSS M l * l • lll | SSS Mlllll * • llM | MM lMlllll * l • -------|---------valid-|--------X--------|---------------- • -90 +90|Left 40 2135Z (18 from 3819N/8058W) Right 40 Legend Route NTDA Demonstration Concept Waypoint Severe turbulence Moderate turbulence Java web-based turbulence display Moderate turbulence Severe turbulence Aircraft position In situ turbulence reports Vertical cross-section

35. Implications of Ocean Acidification • Ocean chemistry is changing to a state that has not occurred for millions of years • Shell-building in marine organisms will slow down • Reef-building will decrease, stop, or reverse • Fundamental changes will occur in marine ecosystems

36. Early-career Scientists & Increasing Diversity • Since 2001, 34 new early-career scientists • Steady progress increasing diversity

37. Female Scientists

38. What we want from our leaders

39. Commitment to Excellence, Dedication, Integrity,Tenacity, Teamwork, Competence, Diligence, Ability to be Inspired ….and to Inspire