NCAR Scientist Assembly Tim Killeen April 25, 2005

1. NCAR Scientist Assembly Tim Killeen April 25, 2005

2. Outline • NCAR’s Strategic Plan update • Federal outlook • NCAR’s budget, organization and leadership • Science, facilities and education • NSA’s role in defining NCAR’s future • Discussion

3. NCAR’s Strategic Plan Update Beginning update process NCAR Executive Committee leadership--represents all NCAR NSA - critical inputs and reviews Community input solicited (e.g., URC) Targeted to support NSF’s Review of NCAR’s Management, March 2006 Will protect NCAR’s science and facilities programs through competition process October 2001

4. Current Strategic Plan

5. 2006 Strategic Plan Goals: • Update science and facilities plan • Reconfirm our priorities and commitment to science • Articulate our unique strengths • Demonstrate our role as a community facilitator • To use as: • Basis for review of NCAR Management- March ‘06 • Basis for Laboratory implementation plans • Roadmap for NCAR decisions • Marketing tool • Guidance for community collaborators • Document for competition of management of NCAR

6. Approach • Guiding principle: This is an opportunity • Build on existing plan • Base plan on set of goals and focus areas • 10 year planning horizon • Staff inputs • NCAR Division Directors • NSA -- SEA • ECSA -- UOP Directors • Iterative process • Community input • URC • NCAR Advisory Council • BOT • Divisional Advisory Panels • Invited University Participants

7. Approach, cont. • Forming a writing team • Some NSA Members • Detailed annotated outline (May 05) • Co-locate Executive Committee in July 05 • Gather input: welcome your ideas, July critical • Reviews by NSA, UCAR BOT, NCAR Advisory Committee, URC, NSF • Form a “Red Team” • Some NSA Members

8. Federal Budget Outlook

10. Federal Outlook • US budget had a record deficit last year of $412 billion • Congress supports the need for a strong research base, but face significant budget pressures • NSF looking at inflationary or sub-inflationary growth over next 2-3 years. • According to AAAS report of 4/12/05, for FY06: • Total federal research investment would fall 1.4% to $55.2 billion. • NSF would receive an average 1 percent boost for research programs. • DOE Office of Science R&D -4.5% • NASA +1.6% • R&D +4.6% • Earth Sciences - 4% • Biological and physical research -22%

11. President’s 2006 Budget Request for NCAR Drop * Includes Mesa Lab refurbishment ** Includes aircraft maintenance

13. NSF Emphasis Areas • Biocomplexity in the Environment • Information Technology Research • Collaborations in Mathematical Geosciences • Nanoscale Science and Engineering • Human and Social Dynamics

14. Advocacy • Testimony to House Science Committee on “Earth Science at NASA”, this Thursday • Visits to Hill, OMB, OSTP, President’s Science Advisor, NSF Director, GEO Director, etc. • Killeen, co-chair of NASA Sun-Solar Connections Strategic Plan • Anthes, co-chair of NRC Earth Science Decadal Review • Testimony on FY06 budget for • NSF & NASA • FAA & FHWA • NOAA • NCAR/ATM Retreat, February 28, 2005

15. NCAR’s Budget

18. FY 2005 Annual Budget Review Assumptions • Maintain progress towards implementing NCAR’s Strategic Plan. • Honor several leveraged commitments to funding agencies. • Support priorities consistent with NSF Review Criteria. • Maintain Early Career Scientist Program. • Support actions responsive to NSF review. • Create budgetary and programmatic flexibility where feasible.

19. How were decisions made? With difficulty and careful deliberation • Base down -2%: 10 staff actions in areas deemed of lower priority based on FY05 ABRs • 6 staff actions occurred earlier in Facilities divisions • Extensive review in: • Divisions/programs/institutes, • Laboratories, then • NCAR Executive Committee • Director’s Fund reserves and FY05 Opportunity Fund applied to shortfalls where most needed • Major fund-raising effort • Every effort made to preserve priority programs • NSA Science Advisor involved throughout

20. Significant Adjustments • $1M Biocomplexity funding secured for second year (no new hires) • $1.5M new funding for EOL, matched by $100k from Directorate (next year additional $2.5M new funding) • Directorate reserve and ESSL reserve combination to fund CCSM, UTLS, CSAC, MIRAGE, Visitor Programs for FY05 • Space Weather $250k new NSF funding, with $150k match from Directorate • Inter-Laboratory transfers to relieve problems

23. NCAR Strategic Initiative FundingFY 2001 through Projected FY 2009

24. Strategic Initiative Funding

25. Budgetary Outlook • Moving the ABR budget process for FY 2006 earlier (Spring time) for better planning • FY 2006-08 core budgets likely to continue to be tight • Negotiated agreement with NSF to ramp up EOL funding for HIAPER, and science linked to it with new funds (total of $4.5M over two years) • Developing a multi-year strategy (similar to that successfully made for EOL) for funding next-generation NCAR Computing Facilities. • NSF-ITR funding proposal presently under study.

26. NCAR’s Reorganization

27. Objectives of a realignmentBrant Foote, January 2004 Organize so as: • To show ourselves off in the best possible light • Highlighting all the bright parts of our program, not just the initiatives • To refine and to emphasize our mission and goals • Understand our priorities more quantitatively • Make our mission and our structure look more alike • To make our management team as effective as possible • To make the dreaded “stovepipe” term obsolete • To manage effectively cross-divisional programs (the initiatives as well as others)

28. Reorganization Goals • Develop a structure that maps NCAR’s mission into its organization more clearly • Facilitate internal and external collaborations, for both interdisciplinary and disciplinary research • Deliver on the promise of our strategic plan • Reduce the number of direct reports to NCAR Director’s office to optimize: • Appropriate span of control • Delegation of authority and responsibility • Decisions to include needed perspectives • Communication throughout the organization • Greater external advocacy

29. NCAR Reorganization • Financial structure implemented in October, 2004. • NCAR Executive Committee – Implemented October, 2004. • FY 2006/07 Annual Budget Review at the Laboratory Level.

30. NCAR Associate Directors CISL Al Kellie EOL Carbone/Cooper and in 7/05 Roger Wakimoto (new) ESSL Annick Pouquet (acting, search underway) RAL Brant Foote SERE Diana Josephson (new) Addition of Science Advisor to Executive Committee Joe Tribbia

31. Projected Net Cost of Reorganization in FY 2006 ($ in thousands) • Savings in direct programs due to scientific staff moving to management positions – e.g. Pouquet, Nychka, Carbone, Hagan • Review of overhead functions underway to restrain upward pressure on rates (~1,5%) • Net cost further reduced by UCAR, which is paying for roughly half of SERE AD position for 3 years

32. NCAR’s Reorganization • Science is central to the reorganized NCAR. • One laboratory – ESSL -- is “all science.” • SERE, CISL, EOL, and RAL also have significant science components. • 6 out of 8 NCAR executive committee members are NCAR Senior Scientists. • NCAR Overhead rate: FY05 51.5% FY06: 50.6

33. NCAR Investing for our Future

34. Investment in ScienceACD Laboratory – FL0

35. HIAPER • Six years in the making (20 in the planning!) • $81.5 million NSF/NCAR aircraft largest community project in NCAR history • Fly up to 51,000 feet with a range of 7,000 miles • Can carry 5,600 pounds of sensors • Arrived March 11, 2005 to new Jeffco hangar • In testing phase • Ready for deployment in 2006

36. IBM Blue Gene Supercomputer to simulate ocean, weather, and climate phenomena Peak performance of 5.7 teraflops In collaboration with the University of Colorado

37. National Lambda Rail (NLR) NCAR/SCD will serve: Colorado School of Mines, Colorado State University, University of Colorado at Boulder, University of Colorado at Denver, NOAA Boulder labs, University of Utah, and the University of Wyoming. NLR provides 4 separate 10 gigabit-per-second pathways, extensible to ~40 total

38. Faculty Fellowship • To provide opportunities and resources for faculty employed at universities, with an emphasis on UCAR member universities and academic affiliates and early career faculty, to work in residence at NCAR • To enable NCAR Scientists (Staff, Project, and Associate Scientists including Senior Research Associates) to spend a period of time in residence at US universities, with the same emphasis on UCAR member universities and UCAR academic affiliates. • URC recommended selection • ASP announcement forthcoming

39. ASP Post Docs • 140 applicants—highly qualified • Directors or representative provided top 2-3 candidates • 9 hires with 4 positions co-sponsored • Wait list • Announcements shortly

40. Opportunity Fund • For highly innovative science, to maintain scientific vitality • $1 million available • Maximum award $200K • Proposals due April 27 • Decisions August 29 • Start date FY06 • Review & recommendations by panel of NSA

41. Strategic Initiatives Executive Committee recommended new Efforts for FY06 (initial funding in FY05): • CSAC • UTLS • MIRAGE

42. FY 04/05 Scientist I Hires Amik St-Cyr CISL, SCD Jochum Markus ESSL, CGD Matthias Rempel ESSL, HAO George Bryan ESSL, MMM Paul Field ESSL, MMMArlene Laing ESSL, MMMDavid Gochis RAL, RAPJosh Hacker RAL, RAP

43. A Sampling of Projects and Points of Pride

44. RICO’s Real-time Display and Coordination Center NSF C-130 GOES 1Km vis UK BAE-146 R/V Seward Johnson NSF KingAir S-PolKa …one of the largest RDCC projects to date

45. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) • NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3). • Open Source • 8-member ensembles • 11,000 model years simulated • T85, 100 Terabytes

46. Institution Rankings in the GeosciencesSorted by Citations – June 2004 NSF Reviewof UCAR and NCAR Proposal, December 2002 • “Previous reviews, including the most recent NSF and SPEC reviews, have noted the excellence of NCAR research. The panel concurs in that assessment and is impressed with the quality and appropriateness of the proposed research agenda.” • “NCAR research and facilities have contributed in a highly effective way to the nation’s atmospheric science research and education needs.” • Every recent review has asked NCAR to do more Data courtesy of ISI Essential Science Indicators™ – Powered by ISI Web of Knowledge™

48. NSA • NCAR’s new Strategic Plan – participate in shaping our future • Difficult budget times—help us make the hard decisions (Rhoten study – participation voluntary, data needed) Q&A

49. Discussion

50. 2001 Strategic Plan • “NCAR as an Integrator” • The integration of disciplinary knowledge to create interdisciplinary synthesis and develop new knowledge; • The integration of research and education; • The integration of different tools and methods to attack new problems; • The integration of different points of view and personal experiences to create teams