The Implications of Peak Mining for the Industrial Sector

1. The Implications of Peak Mining for the Industrial Sector Dr Simon Michaux

2. Mining Supports Industrialisation • Manufacture and application of technology at all scales makes up the industrial grid • That technology allows us to live in the numbers we do and in such densely populated cites • Big agriculture (thus our food) depends on industrial services • Industrial grid heavily dependant on raw materials from mining • Mining is the exploitation of a non-renewable natural resource

3. The impact of miningand processing minerals “consumes close to ten percent of world energy, spews almost half of all toxic pollution from industry in some countries, and threatens nearly 40 percent of the world’s undeveloped tracts of forests—while generating only a small share of jobs.” Payal Sampat in a Worldwatch Institute report (State of the World 2003) Mining empowers everything else by supplying raw materials for manufacture and energy

4. 40% Decrease in Multifactor Productivity

5. Well, GOLLY! We aren’t growing new deposits are we?

6. Driven by increasing demand

7. Economies of Scale Has Carried the Industry

8. Ore has been progressively getting harder Softer Harder ~3000 Drop Weight Tests More power draw is required to break the rock What does this mean?

9. Target Grind Size is Decreasing

10. Ore grain size becoming more disseminated 10 mm 1 mm Target ore P80 = 150mm Target ore P80 = 4mm

11. General form of the Energy-Size relationship Hukki 1962 Energy, kWh/t A decrease in metal grain size A decrease in plant final grind size P80 An exponential increase in power draw = =

12. Economic goal posts are shifting for future deposits • Huge low grade deposits • Penalty minerals more prominently present in deposit that prevent efficient processing • Ever decreasing grind sizes (close size 5-20mm) • Operating on an economy of scale never been seen before (4MT blasted rock a day, 40% of which is ore!) • To stay economically viable, economics of scale have to be applied. Operations will double and triple in size. All of this based on the assumption that there is no energy or water shortage

13. Copper Demand Outlook 17Mt World Cu grade 1.6% 3400Mt of Rock World Cu grade 0.5% With current estimations the demand for copper will increase to ~100Mt by 2100 With a continuing grade of 0.5% this will require 20000Mt of Rock With a decrease of grade to 0.2% this then requires 50000Mt of Rock Is this sustainable? Eventually the cost of dealing with the wastes will exceed the value of the metal…

14. Mining Challenge: Energy Shortage

15. Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2008 Energy consumption in mining increased 450% in the last 40 years

16. Peak Gas Year 2018 Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlookEnergy Watch Group March 2013 CSG and shale gas has pushed this date back from approx. 2011

17. Peak Oil - conventional and unconventional Year 2012 Source: The Oil Drum Tar and oil sands have pushed back the peak of total oil supply back 6-7 years

18. Peak Coal Year 2020 Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlookEnergy Watch Group March 2013 This should frighten the hell out of any thinking politician

19. World supply of fossil fuels and uranium Peak energy approx. 2017 Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlookEnergy Watch Group March 2013

20. Dynamic Interaction and Exacerbation • Power & water shortages • Decreasing grade requires more tonnesof rock extracted for the same resulting amount of target metal. • More energy is needed (diesel and electrical power draw) per unit of extracted metal • More potable water is needed per unit of extracted metal • Increasing ore hardness requires more power draw to crush and grind the ore

21. Dynamic Interaction and Exacerbation • Decreasing grind size due to finer mineral grains requires more power draw to crush and grind the ore • More water is needed per unit of extracted metal • Water recycling is more difficult • More disseminated finer grained rocks are usually harder to crush and grind • Exponentially more energy demand from shrinking energy sources • To remain economically viable operation scale has to double/triple in size • Metal demand is growing fast

22. What we must choose to do to, if our industrial sector is to survive Leadership & Vision Fundamental Reform Room to Manoeuvre Existential Crisis Decay/ Collapse Drift/ Decline Mounting Stress Drift Early Crisis We are here Trapped Transition Write-off & Reset Trapped Transition Drift/ Decline Early Crisis Existential Crisis Decay/Collapse Mounting Stress Drift Understand true implications Peak Total Energy 2017 Inelastic oil supply 2005

23. The Industrial Big Picture Expansion of production needed to stay viable Peak Mining Increasing Depth Decreasing Grind size Peak Fossil Fuel Decreasing Grade + + + = = FIAT Currency Devaluation Structural Inflation Credit Freeze Expansion of money needed to service debt + + + Peak Finance Sovereign Debt Default The End of the Industrial Revolution Peak Manufacturing Peak Industrialisation The End of Materialism

24. The fate of the current system of industrial management This is not the end of industrialization but the end of the current way of doing this. A new system will be developed through necessity.

25. Reset all FIAT currencies – asset based • Restructure all debt • Need to grow into new system Are these issues really unknown to the senior global decision makers? • Cannot sustain growth • Cannot grow economy system • Change to alternative energy system • Rebuild all infrastructure to meet requirements of new energy system Population Overshoot • Energy supply disrupted then unavailable • Financial • Systemic • Meltdown • Natural raw materials unavailable for industrialisation • Cannot supply raw materials for construction or manufacture at needed rate or volume, if at all • Need to reassess what is really needed • Mine our rubbish dumps What happens to due process and democracy when there is not enough to support everyone? • Systemic environmental disruption • Cannot run any existing system for very long • Resilience and redundancy required on all fronts • Practical carrying capacity vastly reduced • Puts pressure on all other sectors except finance • Most people of which have few relevant skills outside existing paradigm • Wilful ignorance & aggressive apathy

26. The ethics of what gets used and for whom becomes relevant • Person A and Person B want the same pallet of aluminum ingots • Person A wants to build a roof over his swimming pool at his holiday home • has lots of $$$ • Person B wants to build a series of bore water pumps in a region with drinking water shortages • represents a nation state government where resource is situated But money has become really unstable The ‘have-nots’ vastly outnumber the ‘haves’ grab your pitch forks and burning torches, its time for a visit to the castle…

27. Personal epiphany after a 15 year professional career You can’t make a system change that doesn’t want to, that also regulates its own authority and has its own political power source You can be at the right place at the right time, when that system breaks… Conventional thinking has no hope for the future. Unconventional thinking and asymmetrical strategy is the way forward Timing is the key to everything

28. Questions??? Peak mining & implications for natural resource management - Simon Michaux Type in ‘peak mining Simon Michaux’ Developing a Sustainable Community - Simon Michaux Type in ‘Developing a Sustainable Community’