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Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030 Thailand

Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030 Thailand. Bundit Limmeechokchai Pornphimol Winyuchakrit Artite Pattanapongchai SIIT-TU. 1 Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology Thammasat University 2 National Institute for Environmental Studies

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Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030 Thailand

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  1. Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030 Thailand BunditLimmeechokchai PornphimolWinyuchakrit ArtitePattanapongchai SIIT-TU

  2. 1 Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology Thammasat University 2 National Institute for Environmental Studies 3 Kyoto University 4 Mizuho Information & Research Institute 5 Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Low-Carbon Society Vision 2030 Thailand

  3. What is an “lcs”? • Concept refers to an economy which has a minimal output of GHG emissions into the biosphere. • The over-concentration of these gases is producing global warming. • It is significant impacts on ecosystems and species. An increase of even 1 C in global average surface temperature is likely to have significant impacts on fragile ecosystems, Negative impacts on agriculture, water resources, and human health would appear on a global scale for a temperature increase between 2 and 3 C, Serious risk of large scale such as reversal of the land carbon sink and destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets is more likely 3 C. Ref: The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of IPCC

  4. What should we do? • Take compatible actions with sustainable development. • Adopt patterns of consistent “BEHAVIOR and CONSUMPTION” with low GHG emissions. • Adopt a lifestyle: • Use of energy efficient devices • Use of renewable technologies.

  5. LCS concept Two Different Visions for Societies in the Future

  6. Thailand “lcs” guideline • To propose for avoid catastrophic climate change, and precursor to zero carbon society and renewable-energy economy. • To discuss the possibility of developing a Thailand’s low-carbon society. • To create awareness among Thailand’s authorities, government, stakeholders, and communities for urgent and decisive actions to be taken to realize a robust growth and low-carbon Thailand.

  7. Asia-pacific integrated model (AIM) -AIM/ExSS -AIM/CGE -AIM/Enduse Developed by - National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan - Kyoto University

  8. Asia-pacific integrated model (AIM) Bottom-up approach AIM/ExSS Model • This tool can assess energy balance and CO2 emissions among sectors simultaneously. • This is a snapshot tool at a certain point (but not optimization model). AIM/Enduse Model • This model can assess individual technologies under the detail technology selection framework. • This model is partial equilibrium model on energy. Top-down approach AIM/CGE Model • This model draws the balanced macro economy, based on social condition such as population, technology and preference, and countermeasure. • This model is a general equilibrium model.

  9. ExSS Basic Concept • Tool for socio-economic indicators and environmental load emissions • - Fuel share • Energy Efficiency • Transmission loss • Own use IO Table (GDP) Com. Fl. Area Emission Factor Energy Service Demand Ind. Output CO2 Emissions Primary Energy Supply Freight Tran. Demand Pop. No. of Household (PES) (ESVD) Passenger Tran. Demand

  10. Quantitative assumptions 0.5% -2.1% 2.6%

  11. Quantitative assumptions 2005 Io table Industry Commercial

  12. Quantitative assumptions 5.0% 5.5%

  13. Estimated socio-economic indicators 0.49% - NESDB - DOPA 3.9% 5.1% 6.4% - NESDB • - TTP • DCA • DLT Remarks: Primary industry  Agriculture, Mining, and Construction Secondary industry  Textiles, Food & beverage, Chemical, Metallic, Non-metallic, and Others Tertiary industry  Service sector

  14. energy demand 164,863 128,963 35,895 ktoe 22% 21% 4.3% p.a. 5% 22% 3% 57,327 49% 50% 9% 9% 16% 16% Remarks: BAU is Business as Usual CM is Countermeasure

  15. GHG emissions 563,730 19% 239,560 kt-CO2 43% 5% 4.5% p.a. 324,170 49% 185,983 25% 3% 47% 18% 15% 10% 10% Remarks: BAU is Business as Usual CM is Countermeasure

  16. GHG emissions/reductions 563,730 Power: 91,615 kt-CO2 Freight: 23,118 kt-CO2 38% Passenger: 15,159 kt-CO2 4.5% p.a. Industry: 79,984 kt-CO2 33% Commercial: 18,734 kt-CO2 Residential: 10,950 kt-CO2 185,983 Remarks: BAU is Business as Usual CM is Countermeasure

  17. measures Power generation • Efficiency improvement in the Power generation sector • T&D loss will improve to be 5%. • Technology transfer: New power plant technology will be added such as IGCC and CCGT  Eff. Improve to be 48% and 56%. • Fuel switching: Increasing share of RE and NE in PDP 2010. Ref: Thailand’s Power Development Plan, PDP 2010.

  18. measures residential • Energy efficiency improvement inHouseholds (Electric) • Efficiency improvement by 30% • Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030 • Energy efficiency improvement in Households (Non-electric) • Efficiency improvement • by 30% in wood stove • by 5% in LPG stove • Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030 Ref: Thailand Research Fund. 2007. Research Programme on Policy Research for Promoting the Development and Utilization of Renewable Energy and the Improvement of Energy Efficiency in Thailand.

  19. measures residential 24,859 13,909 (56%) 44.5% 1,620 (6%) 9,330 (38%) EEI (Elec.) 38% Supply side 56% EEI (Non-elec.) 6%

  20. measures Commercial • Energy efficiency improvement in Buildings • Efficiency improvement by 30% • Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030 • Energy efficiency improvement inBuildings (Building Codes) • Building insulation • Building envelope • Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030 Ref: Thailand Research Fund. 2007. Research Programme on Policy Research for Promoting the Development and Utilization of Renewable Energy and the Improvement of Energy Efficiency in Thailand.

  21. measures Commercial 53,630 34,896 (65%) 52.9% 2,350 (4%) 16,384 (31%) EEI (Elec.) 31% Supply side 65% Bldg. Insulation 4%

  22. measures industry • Energy efficiency improvement in Industry(Electric) • Efficiency improvement • Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030 • Energy efficiency improvement in Industry (Non-electric) • Efficiency improvement by 30% • Fuel switching in Industry • Reduce the penetration level in coal and oil by 50% • Replace the penetration level remaining in biomass and LPG.

  23. measures industry 122,492 42,508 (35%) 44.4% 41,336 (35%) 26,268 (21%) 12,380 (10%) EEI (Elec.) 10% Supply side 35% EEI (Non-elec.) 21% Fuel switching 35%

  24. measures transportation • Fuel economy improvement (FEI) in Transport sector • Efficiency improvement by 30% in • Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030 • Travel demand management (TDM) in Transport sector • Efficiency improvement by 7.38% • Using (eco-driving, bus priority, and non-motorized transport) Ref: Pongthanaisawan, J. 2007. Road transport energy demand analysis and energy saving potentials in Thailand. Asian Journal of Energy and Environment Kuwattanachai, N. 2009. Hybrid and Electric cars. TRF Newsletter.

  25. measures transportation • Fuel switching in Transport sector • CNG engines will increase by 20% in 2030 • Hybrid engines can save energy consumption by 30% • Modal shift in Transport sector Ref: Pongthanaisawan, J. 2007. Road transport energy demand analysis and energy saving potentials in Thailand. Asian Journal of Energy and Environment Kuwattanachai, N. 2009. Hybrid and Electric cars. TRF Newsletter.

  26. measures Passenger transport 15,452 293 (2%) 2,921 (19%) 59.7% 8,087 (52%) 4,151 (27%) Supply side 2% Fuel Switching 19% FEI 27% Modal shift 52%

  27. measures Freight transport 23,127 9 (0.04%) 7,062 (31%) 22.1% 9,469 (41%) 6,588 (28%) Supply side 0.04% Fuel switching 31% FEI 28% Modal shift 41%

  28. GHG emissions/reduction total GHG Reduction: 239,560 kt-CO2 2% 3% 14% 10,950 3% 18,734 4% 79,984 16% GHG Emission 324,170 15,159 23,118 91,615 Unit: kt-CO2

  29. Summary of GHG mitigation measures

  30. Renewable energy FOR supply side 50,825 14,647 ktoe 41% 36,178 12,370

  31. Renewable energy For demand side 36,743 5,524 ktoe 18% 31,219 10,953

  32. Renewable potentials Biomass Potential Recorded data by DEDE Forecasted data by SIIT ExSS estimated Primary Energy Supply

  33. Renewable potentials

  34. conclusions • Energy saving can be decreased by 35,895 ktoe or 21.8% in 2030CM. • The GHG emissions under the scenario without mitigation measures will increase to 563,730 kt-CO2. • By adopting measures, GHG emissions can be decreased to 324,170 kt-CO2 or by 42.5%. • If those policies are planned for early stage, Thailand will be able to develop not only as a premier growth center but also serve as a model for LCS.

  35. acknowledgements • Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University • Asian Institute of Technology • National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan • Kyoto University, Japan • Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Japan • Asia Pacific Integrated Model

  36. The end

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