Geoengineering and the Four Climate Change Truths: Perspectives of a Lawyer-Scientist

1. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Geoengineering and the Four Climate Change Truths: Perspectives of a Lawyer-Scientist A Presentation at the Research Triangle Institute, International November 18, 2008

2. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Views of a Lawyer-Scientist • Politics drive climate science • Cost-efficient engineering will drive political solutions • None of this is good for traditional environmentalism

3. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Environmentalism Through a Political Lens • Pre-1960 environmentalism reflected stewardship and could be described as encompassing American Exceptionalism • Post-1970 environmentalism split into two groups, traditional greens and watermelon greens.

4. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy American Environmental Exceptionalism • Traces to de Tocqueville and his seminal work Democracy in America (1835), consisting of three elements: • dynamism • religiosity • patriotism

5. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy American Environmental Exceptionalism • Dynamism • a wide-open scientific entrepreneurialism • a very visible and loud debate regarding the quality of temperature data and modeling • consensus on the science would rise from academic campuses as piecemeal science and not from a political international body

6. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy American Environmental Exceptionalism • Religiosity • reflects traditional scientific mores • competition in ideas would produce vigorous challenges of any postulate or prediction • scientists that study how to predict future events would evaluate the basis of climate alarmism and identify strengths and weaknesses • valid criticisms, new information about actual climate conditions and new theories on the determinants of global climate would cause climate projections to evolve

7. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy American Environmental Exceptionalism • Environmental Patriotism • stewardship would produce private cautionary action • businesses would revise long-range strategies • private institutions and governments would increase scientific investigation • government intervention would be limited by constitutional powers • governmental actions would not cause the export of economic opportunity

8. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Greens, Watermelon Greens and Gramscianism • Antonio Gramsci (1891-1937), • a Marxist intellectual and politician • devised a seven step strategy for • culture war. • Traditional greens adopt the mores and values of Tocquevillian free-market environmentalism • Watermelon greens are green outside and “red” inside and adopt neo-Marxist Gramscian revolutionary tactics

9. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Marxism? Culture war? Revolution? Whoa!

10. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Purposes • Reverse the correlation of power from the privileged to the "marginalized“ • The “environmentally marginalized” are not humans! • There can be no revolution without a proletariat.

11. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Methodology (1) Delegitimize the dominant belief systems, specifically human dominion (hegemony) over nature.

12. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Methodology (2) Supply an alternative set of hegemony values that the environmental elite title “sustainability” and is which requires a reduction in human population and consumption.

13. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Methodology (3) Permeate all spheres of civil society with the replacement values, for example through movies such as “An Inconvenient Truth”, in school curricula, by calendars, notebooks, tee-shirts, and every sort of promotional opportunity.

14. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Methodology (4) Create a revolutionary “consciousness” through transformation of conscious-ness, typically seen as by some as “education” and by others as “indoctrination” and done while permeating all spheres of civil society, starting with children in grammar schools

15. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Methodology (5) Create an “organic” intellectual elite who specializes in the environmental revolution and are supported by dedicated organizations such as the Sierra Club, The Pew Environmental Group, and the Natural Resources Defense Council

16. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Methodology (6) Subscript “traditional” intellectuals who “change sides” and are well positioned within established institutions, such as corporate CEOs, legislators and university professors

17. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Methodology Step (6) Exemplar: “The latest scientific data confirm that the earth’s climate is rapidly changing. … The cause? A thickening layer of carbon dioxide pollution, mostly from power plants and automobiles, that traps heat in the atmosphere. … [A]verage U.S. temperatures could rise another 3 to 9 degrees by the end of the century … Sea levels will rise, [and h]eat waves will be more frequent and more intense. Droughts and wildfires will occur more often. Disease-carrying mosquitoes will expand their range. And species will be pushed to extinction.” “So says the National Resources Defense Council, with agreement by the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, National Geographic, the US National Academy of Sciences, and the US Congressional House leadership. Concurrent views are widespread, as a visit to the internet or any good bookstore will verify.”

18. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Methodology (7) Reject the concept of moral absolutism and replace it with situational ethics that presumes morality is nothing more than a social construction. Thus, an act is moral if it serves the interests of the “oppressed” or “marginalized”, which in environmental terms means anything not anthropogenic. This final step demonizes human interests and actions, and places them subservient to “environmental” interests.

19. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Climate Science Question Posed on the Google Geoengineering Group: “Are we certain we have sufficient quality and quantity of data samples to identify accurate assessment of climate change risks and mitigations?” Response of a “Watermelon Green” Professor of climate science: “Read the IPCC Working Group I report. All your questions and concerns will be answered there.”

20. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Climate Science Response of a “Traditional Green” Member of the National Academy of Engineers: Ask [the Watermelon green] what is the meaning of consensus and does it have any relevance to science, which is not decided or ordained by consensus which explains nothing. Only when it meets strict requirements does hypothesis become theory. Blessing does not convert crap into science although it may convert non believers into believers; heaven help them. The IPCC report is not the third testament.”

21. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Climate Science Response of Dick Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the MIT: "Picking holes in the IPCC is crucial. The notion that if you’re ignorant of something and some-body comes up with a wrong answer, and you have to accept that because you don’t have another wrong answer to offer is like faith healing, it’s like quackery in medicine – if somebody says you should take jelly beans for cancer and you say that’s stupid, and he says, well can you suggest something else and you say, no, does that mean you have to go with jelly beans?"

22. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Climate Science The IPCC projections rely on models that do not comport with actual climate phenomena.

23. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Non-Gramscian Climate Science The IPCC models show effects that have not occurred as projected.

24. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy IPCC Temperature Prediction Current 8 year Trend Actual 30 year Trend With 95% Confidence Interval Non-Gramscian Climate Science Traditional scientific hypothesis testing “falsifies” IPCC projections

25. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Non-Gramscian Climate Science IPCC models do not conform to traditional scientific requirements for credibility.

26. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Non-Gramscian Climate Science Projection based on multivariate correlation of known solar and temperature cycles. The IPCC disregards non-CGM alternative predictive models.

27. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Gramscian Climate Science Despite the ongoing scientific debate on the nature of global warming, the Gramscian environmental power elite has won the science battle: Ellen Goodman, Boston Globe: By every measure, the U N 's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change raises the level of alarm. The fact of global warming is "unequivocal." The certainty of the human role is now somewhere over 90 percent. Which is about as certain as scientists ever get. I would like to say we're at a point where global warming is impossible to deny. Let's just say that global warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers, though one denies the past and the other denies the present and future.

28. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Conclusions of the Environmental Elite • It is too late to wait. • We will face a catastrophe unless we reduce our carbon emissions immediately.

29. Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy 2001 IPCC Goal 400 ppm Includes a safety factor 2004 IPCC Goal 450 ppm No safety factor 2008 IPCC Goal 550 ppm The probability that this would prevent catastrophic climate change is only 2.5% Source: IPCC SPM3

30. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Solutions • Gramscian Answer: • Reduce carbon emissions without using nuclear power and regardless of the cost. • This “sustainability” agenda sought to reduce population and consumption. • “Carbon reduction only” is the replacement for the failed “sustainability” revolution.

31. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy The Gramscian Non-Solution • It is too late to rely on a "carbon emissions reduction only" strategy. This is the first climate change truth. • China and India won’t play. • The economic dislocation is greater than the “traditional greens” will accept, just as they rejected the implications of the sustainability agenda. • The political ramifications have already altered legislative proposals, allowing a safety valve on the “cap”.

32. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy The Gramscian Non-Solution • For stabilization at 450ppm we require an almost immediate reduction of emissions below the ‘no-climate-policy’ baseline, while at the same time maintaining a global economic growth rate of around 2% per year. • • Reductions required relative to today: 2030, –11%; 2050, –37%; 2070, –54%. • • Reductions required relative to baseline: 2030, –42%; 2050, –68%; 2070, –79%. • • Reductions made this rapidly would require all new power plants to have zero net CO2 emissions

33. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy The Gramscian Non-Solution Carmen Difiglio: IEA’s 450 Scenario … requires a complete transformation of investment in the electric power sector by 2012. …To quote the World Energy Outlook 2007, p. 191: “exceptionally strong and immediate policy action would be essential for [the 450 Scenario] to happen and the associated costs would be very high.” Jeffrey Sachs: “… current technologies cannot support both a decline in carbon dioxide emissions and an expanding global economy.” (Scientific American, April, 2008)

34. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Solutions • Tocquevillian Answer: • Reduce carbon emissions where it is cost-effective, including nuclear power; • Cool the planet with geoengineering so as to stretch out the time available to transition to non-carbon energy; • Encourage entrepreneurialism that would cost-effectively extract carbon from the air; • Promote cost-effective adaptation; • Expand scientific inquiry to reduce uncertainty.

35. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy The Second Battle of the Climate Change Culture War American Exceptionalism will defeat environmental socialism on how to respond to climate change because: • The greens, and the rest of the society, reject the moral absolutism of a “carbon emission reduction only” strategy in light of its inefficacy, costs and required changes in lifestyle. • This is the second truth on climate change.

36. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Geoengineering Geo-engineering is the deliberate modification of Earth's environment on a large scale "to suit human needs and promote habitability". Geoengineering is at present the only economically competitive technology to offset global warming. The geo-engineering option may be considered costless.6 William Nordhaus, Yale

37. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Geoengineering Responses to climate change • Mitigation: • A defined term • Means emissions reductions • Does not mean consumption reduction • Adaptation: • Build a dyke and wear sunscreen • Geoengineering: • Deflect sunlight • (SRS - Solar radiation management) • Sequester environmental carbon

38. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Solar Radiation Management • The Magnitude of the Problem: • Average solar radiation absorbed by the Earth is 236 W / m2 • Doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (from the pre-industrial value of 280 ppm to 560 ppm, or today’s value of 380 ppm to 760 ppm) prevents about 3.7 W m2 of energy from leaving the Earth • This is approximately 100 times greater than the total primary power used by human civilization on Earth (not including solar inputs to agricultural production) • 1.6 % of absorbed solar radiation would need to be deflected to compensate for a doubling of atmospheric CO2.

39. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Solar Radiation Management • Ways to Deflect Solar Radiation: • Cost-efficient Proposals • Stratospheric Aerosols • Cloud Whitening • Cost-inefficient Proposals • Space Mirrors • Whiten the earth

40. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Cloud Whitening

41. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Cloud Whitening The vessel produces 30 kg/sec of 0.8 micron drops of sea water. Salt residues from evaporated drops are ideal cloud condensation nuclei. The Twomey equation predicts that, in the right conditions of cloud, sunshine and clean mid-ocean air, the extra solar energy reflected from cloud tops will be about 10 million times more than the wind energy needed for spray generation.

42. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Cloud Whitening • To achieve a 4 W m2 offset it would be necessary to seed at least a third of the suitable marine cloud coverage. • it could hold the Earth’s temperature constant for a significant number of decades. • It would likely be only one of a suite of geoengineering techniques uses. • Could use dedicated ships, but could also use existing platforms.

43. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Stratospheric Aerosols Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Mimics Volcano Eruptions

44. ºC -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 GeoengineeringTemperature change 2 x CO2 2 x CO2and1.8% reduction insolar intensity Caldeira et al., 2008

45. Area where change is significant at 0.05 level based on 30-yr climatology 2 x CO2 2 x CO2and1.8% reduction insolar intensity (Significant over 12 % of Earth’s area) Area with significant temperature change Caldeira et al., 2008

46. Area where change is significant at 0.05 level based on 30-yr climatology 2 x CO2 Significant over 47% of Earth’s area 2 x CO2and1.8% reduction insolar intensity Significant over 4 % of Earth’s area Area with significant precipitation change Caldeira et al. 2008

47. Geoengineeringand plant growth In the model, plants grow much better in the geoengineered world than in the natural world. Geoengineering results in CO2 fertilization without the increased heating that leads to increased plant respiration Govindasamy et al., 2002

48. Center for Environmental Stewardship Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Two arctic geoengineering scenarios remove ~0.37% of total solar insolation Caldeira, 2007

49. ºC -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Annual mean temperature response 2xCO2 - 560 ppm CO2, normal solar radiation Temperature change (ºC) Caldeira et al., 2008

50. ºC -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Annual mean temperature response Geo71.25 560 ppm CO2, 25% solar reduction north of 71ºN Temperature change (ºC) Caldeira et al., 2008.