The Science and Politics of Climate Change Fresh from the Hague

1. The Science and Politics of Climate ChangeFresh from the Hague Robert T. Watson Chief Scientist & Director, ESSD Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change December 6, 2000 - MC 12 Floor Gallery - 1:00 p.m.

2. Annual Temperature Trends, (°C / century) 1901-1999 Source: P. Jones, et. al. 2000.

3. 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Change in temperature (°C) 0.2 0.0 –0.2 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Global Temperature ObservationsAnnual averages plus long-term trends, to July 1999 The Met.Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

4. Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH)Temperature Reconstruction (blue) and Instrumental Data (red) fromAD 1000-1999 Source: Mann et al. 1999.

5. Precipitation Trends (%)per Decade (1900-1994)Green • = increasing / Brown •= decreasing

6. Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times Carbon dioxide: 33% rise Methane: 100% rise The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research.

7. Comparison of Temperature Observationsand Model Simulations Source: Tett, et.al., 1999 and Stott, et.al., 2000.

8. Percent of the Continental U.S. with A MuchAbove Normal Proportion of Total Annual Precipitation From 1-day Extreme Events(more than 2 inches or 50.8mm) Source: Karl, et.al. 1996.

9. Schematic Illustration of SRES Scenarios

10. 1990 2100 • Population (billion) 5.3 7.0 - 15.1 • World GDP (1012 1990US$/yr) 21 235 - 550 • Per capita income ratio: 16.1 1.5 - 4.2developed countries to developing countries • Final energy intensity (106J/US$)a 16.7 1.4 - 5.9 • Primary energy (1018 J/US$) 351 514 - 2226 • Share of coal in primary energy (%)a 24 1 - 53 • Share of zero carbon in primary energy (%)a 18 28 - 35 Scenarios a 1990 values include non-commercial energy consistent with IPCC WGII SAR (Energy Primer) but with SRES accounting conventions. Note that ASF, MiniCam, and IMAGE scenarios do not consider non-commercial renewable energy. Hence, these scenarios report lower energy use.

11. Global CO2 Emissions from Energy & Industry Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.

12. Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions (MtS) Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.

13. 6 5 4 Temperature Change (ºC) 3 2 SAR 1 0 Year Projected Change in Global Mean Surface Temperature from Models usingthe SRES Emissions Scenarios

14. Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s The projected change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in CO2. The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

15. Projected Changes in Annual Precipitation for the 2050s The projected change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in CO2. The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

16. El Niño years La Niña years The 1997/98 El Niño Strongest on Record* *As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the eastern tropical Pacific off Peru.

17. Northern Hemisphere Winter

18. Potential Climate Change Impacts

19. Annual Runoff Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s. University of Southampton.

20. Crop Yield Change Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of CO2 are taken into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize and rice. Jackson Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 97/1091 16

21. Climate Change and Ecological Systems • Biological systems have already been affected by changes in climate at the regional scale • The structure and functioning of ecological systems will be altered and the biological diversity will decrease • forests, especially Boreal forests are vulnerable due to changes in disturbance regimes (pests and fires) • coral reefs are threatened by increases in temperature • the current terrestrial uptake of carbon will likely diminish over time and forest systems may even become a source of carbon

22. Likelihood of Population altered at risk distribution Disease Vector (millions) Present distribution with warming Malaria mosquito 2,100 (sub)tropics üü Schistosomiasis water snail 600 (sub)tropics üü Filariasis mosquito 900 (sub)tropics ü Onchocerciasis black fly 90 Africa/Latin America ü (river blindness) African tsetse fly 50 tropical Africa ü trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) Dengue mosquito unavailable tropics üü Yellow fever mosquito unavailable tropical South ü America & Africa Likely ü Very likely üü Vector (insect)-borne Diseases Source: Modified WHO, as cited in Stone (1995).

23. People at Risk from a 44 cm Sea-level Rise by the 2080sAssuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection Source: R. Nicholls, Middlesex University in the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997. Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective.

24. Sea Level Rise CommitmentThermal expansion and land ice melt after an initial 1% increase in CO2 for 70 years The Met Office. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

25. Co-Benefits - Adaptation • Many sectors (e.g., water resources and agriculture) are vulnerable to natural climate variability, e.g., floods and droughts associated with ENSO events • Identify technologies, practices and policies that can reduce the vulnerability of sectors to natural climate variability and can increase resilience to long-term climate change • incorporate modern scientific forecasts of ENSO events into sector management decisions • integrated multi-sector watershed management and appropriate water pricing policies • elimination of inappropriate agricultural subsidies • infrastructure design (e.g., buildings, bridges, roads)

26. Percentage Change in Emissionsfrom 1990 to 2010

27. Energy Emission Pathways and Stabilization Concentrations Source: IPCC. 1995. Second Assessment Report. Working Group I. Cambridge.

28. Mitigation Options • Supply Side • Fuel switching (coal to oil to gas) • Increased power plant efficiency (30% to ~60%) • Renewables (biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc.) • Carbon dioxide sequestration • Nuclear power • Demand Side • Transportation • Commercial and residential buildings • Industry • Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry • Afforestation, Reforestation and slowing Deforestation • Improved Forest, Cropland and Rangeland Management • Agroforestry • Waste Management and Reduced Halocarbon Emissions

29. Policy Instruments • Policies, which may need regional or international agreement, include: • Energy pricing strategies and taxes • Removing subsidies that increase GHG emissions • Internalizing environmental extranalities • Tradable emissions permits--domestic and global • Voluntary programs • Regulatory programs including energy-efficiency standards • Incentives for use of new technologies during market build-up • Education and training such as product advisories and labels • Accelerated development of technologies as well as understanding the barriers to diffusion into the marketplace requires intensified R&D by governments and the private sector

30. Carbon Trading JI Internalizing Global Externalities (supporting the post- Kyoto process) More GEF More Renewables Local/Regional Pollution Abatement (to be strengthened) Clean Technology Clean Fuel EconomicInstruments EnvironmentalStandards Regional Agreements Win-Win (in place) Energy Efficiency Sector Reform Rural Energy Fuel For Thought: Strategy for The Year 2000

31. Co-Benefits - Mitigation • Co-benefits can lower the cost of climate change mitigation • Identify technologies, practices and policies that can simultaneously address local and regional environmental issues and climate change • energy sector • indoor and outdoor air quality • regional acid deposition • transportation sector • outdoor air pollution • traffic congestion • agriculture and forestry • soil fertility • biodiversity and related ecological goods and services

32. Pollution in Selected Cities (TSP) Source: OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables 1995; Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. “Ambient Air Quality Status and Statistics, 1993 and 1994”; Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992; EPA, AIRS database.

33. Health Costs (TSP in China) Source: Clear Water, Blue Skies; China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.

34. Energy SupplySustained Growth Scenario Source: Shell International Limited.

35. Key Conclusions • The Earth’s climate is changing - temperatures and sea level are increasing, rainfall patterns are changing, glaciers are retreating, Arctic sea ice is thinning • Human activities are changing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases • The weight of scientific evidence suggests that human activities, are at least in part, the cause of the observed changes in climate • The Earth’s mean annual surface temperature is projected to increase by about 1.5 to 6.0 degrees centigrade between 1990 and 2100, with land areas warming more than the oceans - precipitation patterns will change - sea level projected to rise about 50 cm (15-95 cm) by 2100

36. Key Conclusions • Projected changes in climate will affect: • water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid lands • agricultural productivity, especially in the tropics and sub-tropics • the structure and functioning, hence the goods and services, of ecological systems • human settlements due to sea level rise • human health, e.g, vector-borne diseases

37. Key Conclusions • A change in the Earth’s climate is inevitable • The magnitude and rate of climate change will depend upon the adoption of policies, practices and technologies that influence greenhouse gas emissions • Adaptation strategies can be adopted to reduce the vulnerability of socio-economic systems, ecological systems and human health to today’s climate variability and long-term human-induced climate change

38. Key Issues at COP-6 While there were significant differences between the European Union and the Umbrella Group (US, Japan, Canada, Australia) agreement was almost achieved in the Hague. A number of issues of concern to developing countries still need resolution. • Flexibility mechanisms • LULUCF • Financing • Technology transfer • Capacity-building • Compliance • Adaptation

39. Key Issues at COP-6Flexibility Mechanisms (Art. 6, 12 and 17) • capped or uncapped(EU and many developing countries want a cap in contrast to the US: affecting the size of market) • secondary markets(EU and many developing countries want to eliminate secondary markets in the CDM - will decrease size of the market and incentives for private sector involvement) • liabilityif a seller fails to deliver, i.e., seller vs buyer beware • open market or regional allocations(ability of Africa and small countries to access the market) • eligibility of LULUCF activities in CDM(next slide) • adaptation fee - CDM or all three mechanisms(size of adaptation fund: ability to mainstream climate change into relevant sectors; ability to link near-and long-term issues)

40. Key Issues at COP-6LULUCF • Which, if any, LULUCF activities are eligible in the CDM • afforestation, reforestation, slowing deforestation, forest/rangeland/cropland management, agroforestry • EU and some developing countries wanted to limit/eliminate LULUCF activities in contrast to the US and other developing countries (LAC): will affect eligible activities under the PCF and access to CDM funds for clients • How to address harvesting/regeneration and aggradation/ degradation (Art. 3.3 or 3.4) • Whether to limit credits under Article 3.4 (EU and G77+China want to limit credits in contrast to the US, Canada, Japan) • Whether the Business-as-usual uptake can be credited (US want discounted credits - EU and G77+China want no credit)

41. Key Issues at COP-6Financing • New window under the GEF for adaptation--key issue is who manages the window and establishes priorities-- the GEF Council/secretariat or the CDM Executive Board, accountable to the COP/MOP • New Convention window under the GEF for technology transfer, capacity-building, national mitigation programs, etc. -- key issues are (i) the sources of funding, e.g., third GEF replenishment, voluntary contributions, ODA, fee on Article 17, and (ii) guidance by the COP • Total annual resources for climate change funding, including the adaptation and Convention window, of $1 billion

42. Key Issues at COP-6Technology Transfer • Different views between developed and developing countries • form an intergovernmental consultative group to facilitate the sharing of information and assess approaches to address the barriers to technology transfer • Funded under the Convention window of the GEF

43. Key Issues at COP-6Capacity Building • Parties will establish a framework to guide the choice of activities that will assist Developing countries implement the Convention and participate in the Kyoto Protocol • Funded under the Convention window of the GEF