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Course 12

Course 12. Risk Management. Risk in SE. Risk = probability of something bad to happen + negative consequences Project Management Body of Knowledge ( PMBoK ): „ a project is an endeavor to create a product or service.’” Software development : Human : high skills Technology

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Course 12

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  1. Course 12 Risk Management S. Motogna - Software Quality

  2. Risk in SE • Risk = probability of somethingbadtohappen + negative consequences • Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBoK): „ a projectis an endeavorto create a product or service.’” • Software development: • Human: highskills • Technology • RiskAnalysisand Management - key PM practice S. Motogna - Software Quality

  3. 4 stepsprocess S. Motogna - Software Quality

  4. Riskidentification • Identifythreats – are theyrisks? • Fromwhere: riskrepository, checklists, expert opinion, project status • Types of risks: technical, external, project management, organizational Technology Performance Quality Customer Contract Market Planning Schedule Estimation Control Communication Logistic Resources Budget S. Motogna - Software Quality

  5. Tools for Riskidentification • SWOT analysis (seecourse 8) • FMEA • ScenarioAnalysis S. Motogna - Software Quality

  6. FMEA – Failure Mode andEffectsAnalysis S. Motogna - Software Quality

  7. ScenarioAnalysis • Define problem • Gather data • Separate certaintyfromuncertainty • Developscenario S. Motogna - Software Quality

  8. Example: Pass SQ course S. Motogna - Software Quality

  9. Riskanalysis / estimation / assesment • RiskValue = Probability of Event x Cost of Event • Probability of riskoccurence • Risk Impact: high (catasprophic – A); medium (critical – B); low (marginal – C) Highprobability – (80 % ≤ x ≤ 100%) Medium-highprobability – (60 % ≤ x < 80%) Medium-Lowprobability – (30 % ≤ x < 60%) Lowprobability (0 % < x < 30%) S. Motogna - Software Quality

  10. Impact Probability Matrix S. Motogna - Software Quality

  11. Back toexample – Impact ProbabilityMatrix High impact, highprobability: projectwillfail; shouldbeterminated in orderto reduce costs; except: potentialbenefitsjustifytakingtherisks Low impact, lowprobability: canbeneglected: monitor thesefactors High impact, lowprobability: rare occurrences; Low impact, highprobability: several minor risksthattogethercanform a threat; relatedtohumanresources, time; PM practices S. Motogna - Software Quality

  12. Riskhandling / mitigation Risk control Report Monitor Riskhandlingmechanisms • Measuresandmechanismstoinfluencerisks S. Motogna - Software Quality

  13. Risk control • Eliminate therisk: what-ifanalysis – Excel • Lowertheprobability of occurrence • Lowerthe impact of risk • Monitoring: duringproject • Audit: metrics at theend of project S. Motogna - Software Quality

  14. Goodpractices: • Flexibleorganization: • Postponedecisionwhen more data isavailable • Restructuretheproject • Stagetheproject • Analyzeand simulate theeffects of decision S. Motogna - Software Quality

  15. Furtherreading • https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/risk-analysis-project-management-7070 • https://www.nap.edu/read/11183/chapter/6#24 S. Motogna - Software Quality

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