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Site Synthesis Objectives

Explore the consistency of carbon flux estimates at 47 tower sites using 25 models. Assess uncertainties and sources of errors. Workshop at ORNL, showcasing results from 15 models. Valuable for model evaluation. Future focus on statistical analysis for uncertainty quantification.

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Site Synthesis Objectives

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  1. Results of the North American Carbon Program Site-level Interim Synthesis Model Data Comparison (NACP Site Synthesis) Ken Davis, Deborah Huntzinger, Dan Riciutto, Kevin Schaefer, Peter Thornton, Deb Agarwal, Mathias Goeckede, Catharine van Ingen, Alan Barr, Dave Hollinger, and Andrew Richardson, Philippe Peylin, Tony King, and Robert Grant, AmeriFlux Investigators, FluxNet Canada Investigators, Model investigators

  2. Site Synthesis Objectives Are the various measurement and modeling estimates of carbon fluxes consistent with each other - and if not, why? • Quantify model and observation uncertainty • 47 flux tower sites; 25 models • Gap-filled observed weather • Observed fluxes and ancillary biological data • January 7-9: Full workshop at ORNL • February 17-20: NACP All-Investigators Mtg

  3. Flux Tower Sites

  4. Participating Models Results from 15 models 9 simulations per site

  5. Sources of Uncertainty • Observations • Random error • Systematic error • Models • Structure • Parameter • Initial conditions • Meteorological Forcing • Footprint

  6. Uncertainty at Inter-annual Time Scale Annual total NEE at Howland site, Maine

  7. Disturbance Uncertainty ORCHIDEE at 1850 burn site, Manitoba

  8. Uncertainty at Seasonal Time Scale Average seasonal cycle at Howland site, Maine

  9. Uncertainty at Diurnal Time Scale Mead rain-fed corn-soy rotation site (Nebraska) Soybean Year Corn Year

  10. Observed Flux Uncertainty (Based on Richardson et al., 2006, Ag. For. Met. 136:1-18)

  11. Parameter Uncertainty 2 4 0 -2 NEE (mmole m-2 s-1) Observed -4 mean -6 1 s 95% CI -8 -10 2004 2004.5 2005 2005.5 2006 ED2 model at Bartlett site, New Hampshire

  12. Meteorological Forcing Uncertainty Ecosys Temp. perturbations, So. Old Black Spruce, Quebec

  13. Footprint/Representation Uncertainty Land use type at Soroe site, Denmark

  14. Conclusions • Site Synthesis is a powerful dataset for model evaluation and improvement • Next: rigorous statistical analysis to quantify uncertainty

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