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Salmon production forcasting

Salmon production forcasting. By Frank Asche. Global production of farmed salmon and real Norwegian export price, 1981-2007. Global production of farmed salmon and real Norwegian export price, 1981-2007. Real Norwegian export price and production cost (2007=1). Productivity growth.

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Salmon production forcasting

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  1. Salmon production forcasting By Frank Asche

  2. Global production of farmed salmon and real Norwegian export price, 1981-2007

  3. Global production of farmed salmon and real Norwegian export price, 1981-2007

  4. Real Norwegian export price and production cost (2007=1)

  5. Productivity growth • The main engine for the increased production in salmon aquaculture is the productivity growth that reduce production costs, and makes it profitable to sell the product at lower prices • Market growth and product development has further contributed to the industry growth • The prodctivity growth is possible because the control of the production process • It also allow supply chain innovations

  6. Uneven market growth in the EU

  7. Market growth • Market growth has amplified the effect of productivity growth • Compare to sea bass • The market has become global • There is significant product innovation, leading to an increased number of market segments for salmon

  8. US per capita consumption, leading species

  9. Salmon (and other aquaculture products with declining prices) is competitive:Retail prices on selected food products and retail price index in UK

  10. Concluding remarks • Salmon production will continue to increase because it is profitable over time • There are significant cycles • Partly, it will be caused by increased productivity growth, even though the rate is decreasing • Partly, it will be caused by market growth as product development continues • The only products I can see that can cause problems for the salmon industry in the long run, is more competitive new aquaculture species

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