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Assessment of Predictability in Stratospheric-Tropospheric Coupling

A collaborative project for analyzing stratosphere-troposphere processes in climate models to enhance predictive accuracy. Join us in exploring stratospheric dynamics and their impacts on forecasting. Developments include nudging experiments and community surveys on model biases and chemistry. Let’s advance our understanding of atmospheric dynamics together!

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Assessment of Predictability in Stratospheric-Tropospheric Coupling

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  1. Department of Meteorology Stratosphere Activity: STRATOSPHERIC NETWORK FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTABILIY (SNAP) Andrew Charlton-Perez (Univ. of Reading, Dept. of Meteorology) Amy Butler (NOAA/Chemical Sciences Division and CIRES/CU-Boulder)

  2. Scientific OBjectives • to analyze stratosphere-troposphere coupling processes in S2S models; • to quantify model biases in the stratosphere and how those biases influence predictive skill in the troposphere; • to determine how the generation of ensemble initial conditions in the stratosphere influence skill and spread; and • to provide guidance on what additional data output is required to better diagnose the stratosphere and its impacts on the troposphere.

  3. LINK TO SPARC • Stratosphere project is a joint project between S2S and WCRP/SPARC • Within SPARC, SNAP is part of the dynamics cluster • This cluster also includes work on dynamical variability on longer timescales (DynVar) and the QBO (QBOi)

  4. SNAP Team • Amy Butler (NOAA/CIRES, USA) • Andrew Charlton-Perez (U. Reading, UK) • Daniela Domeisen (ETH, Switzerland) • Blanca Ayarzaguena (U. Compultense de Madrid, Spain) • Mark Baldwin (University of Exeter, UK) • Etienna Dunn-Sigouin (U. Bergen/Bjerknes Centre, Norway) • Jason Furtado (U. Oklahoma, USA) • Chaim Garfinkel & Chen Schwartz (Hebrew University, Israel) • Peter Hitchcock (LMD/Cornell Univ., USA) • Alexey Yu. Karpechko (FMI, Finland) • Erik Kolstad (Bjerknes Centre, Norway) • Jeff Knight (Met Office, UK) • Craig Long (NOAA CPC, USA) • Andrea Lopez Lang (University at Albany, USA) • Andrew Marshall, Eun–Pa Lim & Greg Roff (BOM, Australia) • Isla Simpson (NCAR, USA) • Aditi Sheshadri (Columbia University, USA) • Seok-Woo Son & Hera Kim (Seoul National University, Korea) • Lantao Sun (NOAA ESRL, USA) • Masakazu Taguchi (Aichi University of Education, Japan)

  5. S2S Phase 2 plaNS • Community paper on stratosphere-troposphere coupling in S2S models (Lead: Daniela Domeisen). • Model protocol for nudging experiments (Lead: AB + Peter Hitchcock). • Survey modeling groups about how chemistry (e.g., ozone) is dealt with in the models (Lead: ACP). • Survey modeling groups about additional stratospheric data (Lead: ACP) • Additional community paper(s) on these possible topics: understanding the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) quantifying how ensemble spread/uncertainty in the stratosphere influences tropospheric predictive skill; understanding the influence of initial conditions in the stratosphere for predictability (Lead: ACP/AB + others) • Production of simple stratospheric metrics (Lead: ACP + ECMWF colleagues)

  6. Community Paper Lead: Daniela Domeisen • See my talk this week (in almost final draft with 20 authors/17 institutions • Should be submitted to JGR special issue Hera Kim & Seok-Woo Son

  7. Nudging Experiments Lead: Peter Hitchcock & Amy Butler • Developing a protocol for nudging experiments for the Stratosphere here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CjjRRuwGwYbzF-sVPvOZqK_EL-BmwmvzHsAh_a0PZhA/edit?usp=sharing • Aim to link closely to QBOi protocol • Three sets of experiments: • Control (zonally symmetric state nudged to climatology) • Nudging to time evolving state during Stratospheric events • Free-running forecast Events could/should be SSW (split + displacement), strong vortex, controlled for observed/unobserved tropospheric response Meeting later this week (Target: Sharing of protocol mid-Summer)

  8. Survey Lead: Andrew Charlton-Perez (input Amy Butler, committee + Harry Hendon) • Three main aims: • Provide additional meta-data of use to community in assessing the role of various stratospheric processes model skill/fidelity • Start to understand representation of stratospheric chemistry in models (potential future focus) • Explore the possibility of providing additional data (either via portal or separately) to assist diagnosis of stratospheric momentum budget Copy of draft survey provided, would be very helpful to get your feedback on this before circulating (Target: early Summer)

  9. To Do • Explore additional focus topics for community papers (likely a smaller group than the overview paper) – waiting to complete the first community paper. • Continue discussion of stratospheric metrics with ECMWF colleagues and S2S museum, may be simply a case of bringing these together and sharing with Stratospheric community. • Discuss formulation of ozone experiment with Harry and colleagues.

  10. Meetings • ECMWF stratospheric processes workshop (18th-21st November, Amy and Daniela are invited speakers). • DynVar meeting (22nd-25th October, Madrid) – S2S predictability focus in addition to DynVar, first announcement soon. • Joint AGU session?

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