“Global Warming/Climate Change”

1. South Windsor Rotary Club South Windsor, CT Wednesday, 13 May 2009 “Global Warming/Climate Change” Dissecting the Claims Exposing the Methods Laurence I. Gould Physics Department, University of Hartford http://uhaweb.hartford.edu/LGOULD http://www.heartland.org/events/NewYork09/proceedings.html There continues to be an increasing number of scientists and public figures around the world who are challenging the dominant political- and media-driven claims, bolstered by so-called “consensus” scientific views, that dangerous "global warming/climate change" is caused primarily by human-produced carbon dioxide. This public talk will show that the weight of scientific evidence strongly contradicts the alarmist claims. It will also explain what are some likely scientific, educational, economic, and societal consequences resulting from the corruption of the scientific method.

2. Introduction

3. Introduction to some issues about Anthropogenic Global Warming Alarmism (AGWA) Possible Economic Consequences Temperature Some Major Climate Playersaffecting Temperatures The Sun Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Temperature Models Polar Bears threatened? Intensification of Climate Catastrophes? Methodological Errors Possible Consequences for Science Possible Economic Consequences — Summary Moral Issues Summary References

4. Disasters Video There are enough!

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13. Earth in a Frying Pan! A. Horn

14. Earth on Fire! A. Horn A. Horn

15. Fire on Earth! A. Horn

16. PossibleEconomic Consequences of AGWA-stimulated Policies AGWA — Anthropogenic Global Warming Alarmism(ist)

17. Figure 25: In 2006, the United States obtained 84.9% of its energy from hydrocarbons, 8.2% from nuclear fuels, 2.9% from hydroelectric dams, 2.1% from wood, 0.8% from biofuels, 0.4% from waste, 0.3% from geothermal, and 0.3% from wind and solar radiation. The U.S. uses 21 million barrels of oil per day 27% from OPEC, 17% from Canada and Mexico, 16% from others, and 40% produced in the U.S. (95). The cost of imported oil and gas at $60 per barrel and $7 per 1,000 ft3 in 2007 is about $300 billion per year. [Mention “Cap & Trade”] U.S. Energy (2006)? 85% from Hydrocarbons! Petition Project

18. Figure 26: Delivered cost per kilowatt hour of electrical energy in Great Britain in 2006, without CO2 controls (126). These estimates include all capital and operational expenses for a period of 50 years. Micro wind or solar are units installed for individual homes. Petition Project

19. cap-and-trade yields an equivalent of a permanent tax increase for the average American household, which was estimated to be $1,100 in 2008$1,437 in 2015$1,979 in 2030$2,979 in 2050 A. Horn George C. Marshall Institute: The Cost of Climate Regulation for American Households (Buckley & Mityakov, Clemson Univeristy) Increase of price paid forenergy — ELECTRICITY prices will increase 5 - 15% by 2015 NATURAL GAS prices increase 12 - 50% by 2015 GASOLINE price increase 9 - 145% by 2015 [increase of price per gallon: 16 cents - $2.58] (using the January 2009 reported retail price of $1.78 per gallon).

20. BRIEF COMMENTS ABOUT POPULAR PERCEPTIONS 1. Alternative energy sources would decrease our reliance on oil. TRUE 2. Pollution is damaging to the environment. Also TRUE, depending on what’s meant by “pollution” and considering the cost/benefit tradeoffs related to industrial emissions and standard of living. • 3. Anthropogenic emission of CO2 is causing dangerous global warming. NOT SUPPORTED, regardless of the widespread claims, because of the scientific evidence and analysis which contradict such claims. 4. The existence of a range of climate-changes/disasters support the AGWA belief. NOT SUPPORTED, even though it is a prevalent non sequitur that continues to be widely propagated.

21. Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST)

22. “So I’d like to emphasize the fact that we’re at a stage where warming is taking place at a much faster rate. And, clearly, if we don’t bring about some changes, we would have much faster changes in the future.�” — R.K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2008 Wallace Wurth Memorial Lecture; 23 October 2008; University of New South Wales (Sydney, Australia). Title: Our Vulnerable Earth: Climate Change, the IPCC and the role of Generation Green� Issues and Events Climate changes for peace prize winners The award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize delighted scientists and the public but underscored the US government's lack of action to reduce global warming.Physics Today December 2007, page 22

23. 1940 1950 WHAT IF YOU LIVED IN 1940?! WHAT IF YOU LIVED IN 1950?! Two green arrows with their years added by me.

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27. WARM is GOOD! A. Horn

28. http://www.globalwarmingclassroom.info/index.htm

29. The Sun!

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32. Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

33. Smokestacks and CO2 ?!AIT: The Earth’s atmosphere is so thin that we have the capacity to dramatically alter the concentration of some of its basic molecular components. In particular, we have vastly increased the amount of carbon dioxide—the most important of the so-called greenhouse gases. (25) Lewis: Over the past century and a half, atmospheric CO2 levels have risen from about 280 parts per million (ppm) to about 380 ppm—roughly a 35% increase Similar to a two-page spread (pp. 24 - 25 of a 328 page book) in “An Inconvenient Truth” by Al Gore.

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35. Given a 100,000 person stadium. If each person stood for one molecule of the atmosphere… then about 40 people stand for all the CO2 molecules! About how many people stand for the human contribution? ONE !! Cf.,A. Horn

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38. Nature versus Us

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42. Figure 24: Calculated (1,2) growth rate enhancement of wheat, young orange trees, and very young pine trees already taking place as a result of atmospheric enrichment by CO2 at from 1885 to 2007 (a), and expected as result of atmospheric enrichment by CO2 to a level of 600 ppm (b).

43. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Is NOT “Pollution”

44. Carbon Dioxide (CO2)and Temperature Does the former “push” the latter?

45. Carbon Dioxide Increasing BUT World Temperature Falling! http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Correlation_Last_Decade.pdf

46. Spreading False Ideas To Children Reviewed by:

47. In “An Inconvenient Truth”(pp. 66-67 of the book; also film) similar curves are presented, but with the one for CO2 above the one for Temperature. Gore, commenting on how they “fit together” says: “the most important part of it is this: When there is more CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature increases because more heat from the Sun is trapped inside.” [Last sentence false: (1) no correlation and (2) convection not considered; cf., Lindzen E&E]

49. Models

50. Prediction, 1988 … The graph that started the scare Hansen (1988) 50 C. Monckton