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Tackling Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants

This article discusses the importance of addressing hemispheric air pollutant transport, the impacts of air pollutants on climate and teleconnections, and ongoing efforts at the JRC to model and monitor these pollutants.

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Tackling Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants

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  1. tackling hemispheric transportof air pollutants work at the JRC Frank Dentener John van Aardenne Kees Cuvelier Philippe Thunis Giovanni De Santi Frank Raes

  2. Why tackling hemispheric AP? There is observational evidence that AP travels on hemispheric scales Improvements of AP in EU will need controls elsewhere EU emissions impact downwind (Arctic, Boreal Forest) AP effects on climate, teleconnections

  3. Why tackling hemispheric AP? HOWEVER Largest impacts of AP are where the emissions are, i.e. local-regional, TFHTAP science programme under UNCLRTAP/ EMEP There is work on-going under UNFCCC/ IPCC

  4. outline • Activities at the Commissions Joint Research Centre: • Global modeling with TM5 • Model intercomparison exercises • Global emissions inventories • Monitoring/Measurements • Challenges for the TFHTAP

  5. GLOBAL / HEMISPHERIC MODELING

  6. TM5 JRC’s global atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model Partners: JRC, Uni Utrecht, NOAA 1 x 1 3 x 2 6 x 9

  7. TM5 surface ozone double zoom, simplified ozone chemistry CAFÉ SG, 11.05.2005 .

  8. MODEL INTERCOMPARISONS

  9. model validation & intercomparison exercizes co-organized by JRC TM5 participation • AEROCOM: global and regional aerosol • PHOTOCOMP ACCENT: global and regional O3 • EURO-DELTA

  10. PHOTOCOMP ACCENT global- ozone chemistry contribution to IPCC AR4 25 GLOBAL models from Japan, USA and Europe Focus on the year 2030; ‘the inter-mediate’ future which is of direct relevance to policy makers Emphasis on the synergetic effect of air pollution and greenhouse gas emission control (CH4-O3);. New emissions scenarios that recently became available from the IIASA group: lower emissions of CH4 and O3 precursors compared to SRES/IPCC

  11. PHOTOCOMP 25 models IASB IASB BE KNMI KNMI/IMAU NL MATCH-MPIC Max Planck Mainz DE MOZECH Max Planck Hamburg DE UIO2 University of Oslo NO LMDz/INCA LSCE FR MOCAGE Meteo France FR ULAQ L’Aquila University IT STOCHEM-HadGEM UK Met Office UK GEOS-CHEM LMCA-FPEL CH TM5 JRC European Commission CHASER FRCGC Japan MOZART4 NCAR Boulder USA GMIDAO NASA-GSFC USA + 11 other models …

  12. PHOTOCOMP surface ozone, annual average 2000 CHASER/Japan TM5/EC INCA/FR MOZART/USA

  13. PHOTOCOMP surface ozone, annual average 2000 PHOTOCOMP ensemble average 25 models

  14. PHOTOCOMP/GOME NO2 column PHOTOCOMP ensemble average (16) GOME satellite retrieval

  15. EURODELTA regional-scale model responses to emission-reduction scenarios 6 EUROPEAN scale models Evaluate the performance of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion models against observations (EMEP network) Gain insight into the ability of regional-scale models to reproduce chemical nonlinearities in response to emission changes.

  16. EURODELTA 6 models LOTOS EMEP REM3 CHIMERE MATCH TM5

  17. the JRC tool

  18. EURODELTA Taylor plot

  19. GLOBAL EMISSION INVENTORIES

  20. EDGAR emission database for global atmospheric research Partners: JRC, RIVM, MPI • Global Emission Data Base • 1x1 degree grid • Country-region-global • Activity Database (e.g. FAO, IEA) • Emission factors • Consistent data on • greenhouse gases-air pollutants-aerosols. • EDGAR 3.2: Base years 1970-2001 (yr) • historical data back to 1890 • EDGAR-POLES 2000-2030 (5 yr)

  21. Importance of sector to present day emissions.

  22. EDGAR emission database for global atmospheric research CH4 emissions NO2 emissions

  23. IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS

  24. WMO/GAW Global Atmospheric Watch network

  25. WMO/GAW extended for validating global sulfur models (COSAM) GAW Global Stations COSAM Sites

  26. Sulfate (SO4) March-April-May 93-94 Europe peripheral N America peripheral Arctic N Atlantic N Pacific Southern Oceans free troposphere 0 1 2nmole/mole-air

  27. global aerosol data collection

  28. challenges for TFHTAP • Make best use of the many existing models • need for systematic analysis • need for carefully planned intercomparisons • study concept of model ensembles • Invest in global emission inventories • Base knowledge on observations • existing global and regional networks • satellites

  29. challenges for TFHTAP • Foster active participation of teams throughout the world (confidence building through science) • Consider the link with climate change • tackling HT is a different game compared to tackling TAP in Europe today • but probably not so different compared to • tackling TAP in Europe in the seventies

  30. THANK YOU !

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