A Different World: Housing, Demographics and Technology

1. A Different World: Housing, Demographics and Technology Mid Columbia Workforce Housing Summit Hood River, Oregon April 6, 2007 John Mitchell Economist Western Region U.S. Bank

2. Spring 2007 • Six Year Old Upturn • Housing Contraction-Subprime Implosion • Mixed Data • Fed on Hold • Global Strength • Unemployment Rate at 4.5 Percent • Wealth Increasing • Regional Strength

3. Real GDP Growth-Year Six

4. The Last Six Quarters

5. Wage and Salary Employment Changes 2003 to 20074.5% Unemployment Rate February

6. U.S. Employment Year to February 2007 (1.5%)

7. Consumer Price Index and Core 2005-2007 Year over Year February 2.4%Annual Average 2006 3.2%

8. Yield Curve: What does it mean? Flight to Safety-Sorry about the Adjustables!

9. 2007 Coasting and Changing • Changing Leaders, Capacity Constraints Growth Moderating to 2.5% • Inflation Back towards the Comfort Zone 2-2.5% • Rates: “ Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters. ..In these circumstances the Committees predominant concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth as implied by the incoming information.” 3/21/2007

10. 2007 Questions • How will the housing correction play out? What does the subprime implosion mean? • Will business investment and trade hold up? The investment data has softened. • Housing/auto adjustment, energy price increases-piling on? • How tight are labor markets and how fast can we grow?

11. Residential Permits 2001-2007 (000, SAAR)-14.9% in 2006 Bottom?

12. NAR Resales Q4 (SAAR)

13. OFHEO Q4/2006 US 5.9% (1.1%) Utah 17.55% (3.67%) Wyoming 14.29% (3.28%) Idaho 13.99% (2.14%) Washington 13.7% (1.93%) Oregon 13.49% (1.55%) New Mexico 13.08% (2.14%) Arizona 9.6% (1%) Hawaii 7.33% (-.8%) California 4.6% (-.38%) Kansas 4.47% (1%) Nevada 3.95% (-.16%) Colorado 3.32% (.87%) Iowa 3.07% (.9%) Nebraska 2.61%( -.24%) Minnesota 2.47% (.86%) Ohio 1.05% (.36%) Massachusetts .45%(.69%) Michigan -.44% (.51%) Kokomo, Indiana -5.3% Source: OFHEO NAR Q4 73 of 149 Metros down in Q4, 5 Unchanged, 71 up House Price Appreciation Annual to 12/31/2006 and ( Q4 06)

14. OFHEO House Price Appreciation to December 31, 2006

15. Perspective and How Does it end? • MBA 4.95% of Mortgages Delinquent in Q4 13.3% of Subprime • Majority of Subprime have no escrow for INS and Taxes • Fed 2004 Survey 69.4% of Homeowners have mortgage 47.9% of all Families • Mortgage Equity Withdrawal is Plummeting (-47% Annual Rate in Q4 Greenspan and Kennedy) • Construction Decline and Removal from Market • Increased Affordability: Prices, Rates, Income • Changed Expectations

16. Louisiana 1 Arizona 2 Utah 3 Idaho 4 Nevada 5 Wyoming 6 Hawaii 7 North Dakota 8 New Mexico 13 Washington 14 Oregon 19 California 20 Florida 21 New York 29 Massachusetts 30 Indiana 46 Wisconsin 48 Ohio 49 Michigan 50 Job Growth Update –January 2007 Data-49 States Growing

17. Oregon Job Change Year to February 2007 (2%)

18. Oregon Long Run Employment Growth

19. Washington Employment Change Year to February (2.1%)

20. Washington Job Growth Year to February 2007

21. Washington Long Run Employment Growth

22. Regional Job Growth and Population Changes

23. Annual Average Wage and Salary Employment 2001-2006

24. Environment • Adjacency: To Portland: One Metro County • Regional Centers • Falling Communications Costs-Maintain Infrastructure and Skills • Amenities-Gorge, Mountains, etc. • Dramatic Taxation Differences • Regulatory Hangover • Aging Crew

25. A Different World Monthly Labor Review 11/06