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Developing individualised life tables BSPS Annual Conference 12 September 2007

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Developing individualised life tables BSPS Annual Conference 12 September 2007

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    1. Developing individualised life tables BSPS Annual Conference 12 September 2007 Martin Karlsson Les Mayhew Ben Rickayzen Oxford Institute of Ageing Cass Business School Cass Business School University Of Oxford City University City University

    2. Outline Background: The importance of healthy life expectancy Recent trends in HLE Objectives of research Empirical strategy Preliminary results Application: Individualised life tables Application: Potential gains in HLE and LE

    3. Background: Informal Care

    4. Three hypotheses have been considered: Compression of morbidity (Fries) Expansion of morbidity (Gruenberg) Combination (Manton) Recent Trends in HLE However, UK data are surprisingly inconclusive: • Life expectancy free from any disability has been slowly increasing. • Proportion of life spent free from any disability has been roughly constant. • Severe-disability free life expectancy has been increasing (ADL based definition) • The proportion of life spent free from severe disability has been increasing. • The severely-disabled life expectancy has fallen.

    5. Objectives of Research To analyse the dynamics of health, labour market participation and cohabitation in the UK population To analyse trends in morbidity and mortality at the individual level To project future labour market participation, cohabitation and morbidity of subgroups of the UK population To analyse the individual effects of transitions between different employment, health and cohabitation states

    6. Dataset We use all available waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2004) Independent variables include Age, sex and ethnicity Educational attainment Time trends Empirical Strategy Estimation Strategy: GHK We estimate a system of equations: Survival Employment Status Cohabitation Status Disability Estimation strategy includes correcting for Autocorrelation Random effects Attrition (IPW) State Dependence & Initial Conditions

    7. Results I: Employment

    8. Results II: Cohabitation

    9. Results III: Disability

    10. Application: Life Tables, Males

    11. Application: Life Tables, Females

    12. Application: Potential Gains from Employment

    13. Application: Potential Gains from Health Improvement

    14. Summary of Findings Attrition, state dependence and initial conditions are all important factors to take into account when analysing population dynamics based on the BHPS. Cohabitation has very different effects for males and females Our model has good a fit and does a good job in replicating aggregate population figures, but estimates are shaky in small subgroups.

    15. Summary of Findings II There is considerable variation in the effects of employment and disability transitions for different subgroups of the population. Overall, disabled people seem to benefit much more from an employment status change than able-bodied individuals. No independent time trends observed in the data.

    16. Thank you for listening!

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