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Introduction to Causal Analysis

Introduction to Causal Analysis. Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. What is a cause?. Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. What is a cause?. for exercise. Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. What is a Cause?. “Causes” are misunderstood Not goals Not reasons why Not your motivation. What is a Cause?. “Causes” are misunderstood

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Introduction to Causal Analysis

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  1. Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

  2. What is a cause? Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

  3. What is a cause? for exercise Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

  4. What is a Cause? • “Causes” are misunderstood • Not goals • Not reasons why • Not your motivation

  5. What is a Cause? • “Causes” are misunderstood • Not goals • Not reasons why • Not your motivation Fitting in clothes one size smaller

  6. What is a Cause? • “Causes” are misunderstood • Not goals • Not reasons why • Not your motivation … because I want to be healthy.

  7. What is a Cause? • “Causes” are misunderstood • Not goals • Not reasons why • Not your motivation My commitment and will power makes me exercise.

  8. What is a Cause? • “Causes” are misunderstood • Not goals • Not reasons why • Not your motivation

  9. What is a Cause? • “Causes” are misunderstood • Not goals • Not reasons why • Not your motivation

  10. Cause and Effects Are Events • Events • Not physical objects • Absent before, present now

  11. Causes are Temporary Events

  12. All Causes Describe a Mechanism

  13. All Causes Describe a Mechanism

  14. The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain • No sure relationship

  15. The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain • No sure relationship

  16. Causes Increase Likelihood of Effects • ↑ effect

  17. Causes Precede Effects

  18. Causes Precede Effects

  19. Everything Is Not a Cause

  20. Everything Is Not a Cause

  21. Everything Is Not a Cause

  22. Counterfactual • Absent cause • Almost • I could if I wanted to • I would have … • Instead of …

  23. Counterfactual • Absent cause • Almost • I could if I wanted to • I would have … • Instead of … I got up early and almost did my morning exercise before I got interrupted by a call.

  24. Counterfactual • Absent cause • Almost • I could if I wanted to • I would have … • Instead of … I could have exercised if I had gotten up early.

  25. Counterfactual • Absent cause • Almost • I could if I wanted to • I would have … • Instead of … I would have exercised if I were on vacation.

  26. Counterfactual • Absent cause • Almost • I could if I wanted to • I would have … • Instead of … Instead of getting up early to exercise I took my time and made a good breakfast.

  27. Counterfactual • Absent cause • Almost • I could if I wanted to • I would have … • Instead of …

  28. Causes Working In Concert

  29. Alternative Causes

  30. Take Home Lesson New Thinking

  31. Take Home Lesson A cause is an event that occurs sometimes

  32. Take Home Lesson Precedes the effect

  33. Take Home Lesson Co-occurs frequently with the effect

  34. Take Home Lesson Absent cause, absent effect

  35. Take Home Lesson Directly leads to the effect

  36. Take Home Lesson Describes a mechanism

  37. Take Home Lesson Can be modified

  38. Take Home Lesson Search for Causes

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