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NEPOOL Reliability Committee Meeting November 13, 2001 Westborough, MA

NEPOOL Reliability Committee Meeting November 13, 2001 Westborough, MA. Summer 2001 Capacity Update. New England Summer Peak Demand and Temperature, 1996-2001. Summer 2001 Peak Loads. Record heat for July & early August… A string of new peaks Date Peak Load Temp . MW OOS

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NEPOOL Reliability Committee Meeting November 13, 2001 Westborough, MA

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  1. NEPOOL Reliability Committee Meeting November 13, 2001 Westborough, MA

  2. Summer 2001 Capacity Update

  3. New England Summer Peak Demand and Temperature, 1996-2001

  4. Summer 2001 Peak Loads • Record heat for July & early August… A string of new peaks • DatePeak LoadTemp. MW OOS • June 27 22,488 MW 890 1,746 • July 23 22,188 MW 920 4,551 • July 24 23,709 MW * 930 3,813 • July 25 24,153 MW * 950 3,440 • August 7 24,615 MW * 950 2,550 • August 8 24,650 MW * 910 2,000 • August 9 25,158 MW * 990 3,010 • August 10 24,369 MW * 920 2,748 • * Preliminary peak loads • Previous record was 22,544 MW, HE 14, July 6, 1999

  5. *Preliminary Values per ISO-NE Operations Summer 2001: By the Numbers

  6. July 25, 2001 Operation • Predicted 23,800 MW • Day 3 - extremely hot weather - several records tied/broken • Reserve sharing available • Morning Report surplus 283 MW • OP#4 not forecasted • Class 2 Load Response message sent at 1055 • Forecasted ECP > $100 • Actual peak 24,153 MW, HE 16 • OP#4 Actions 1-11 utilized (excluding Maine) • Load running over original forecast • Unit losses and reductions 565MW higher than morning forecast • External contracts set ECP at $1000/MWh

  7. August 9, 2001 Operation • Predicted 24,925 MW • Day 4 - hottest day of the period, very humid • Hi Temps Boston = 97 degrees, Hartford = 102 • Reserve sharing not available • Morning Report surplus 313 MW • OP#4 not forecasted • Class 2 Load Response activation message sent at 0900 • Actual load 25,158 MW, HE 15 • OP#4 Actions 1-15 utilized • Unit loses and reduction 1200 MW higher than morning forecast • External contracts set ECP at $1000/MWh

  8. 2001-2002 Winter Operable Capacity Assessment

  9. MW Projected Peak 21,490 Operating Reserve Required 1,700 Total Operable Cap. Required 23,190 Projected Capacity 28,680 Assumed Outages 2,800 Total Capacity 25,880 Operable Capacity Margin 2,690 Winter 2001-2002Capacity Assessment SummaryWeek beginning January 19, 2002

  10. Adequate Operable Capacity Margins Least Positive Operable Capacity Margin of 2,521 MW forecasted for the Week of March 16, 2002 Concerns surround delivery of Liquefied Natural Gas via the Port of Boston Generally fuel supplies are in good shape Winter 2001-2002What do we Expect?

  11. New Generation Status Update

  12. New Generationas of October 30, 2001 - Summer Ratings MW Generation installed in 1999 355 Generation installed in 2000 1,383 Generation installed in 2001 1,570 Expected Commercial by 481the end of 2001 Total 3,789

  13. New Generation as of October 30, 2001 - Summer Ratings MW Generation installed in 1999 355 Generation installed in 2000 1,383 Generation installed in 2001 1,570 Generation expected Commercial by 481the end of 2001 Expected Generation 2002 & Beyond 5,637 in construction Expected Generation 2002 & Beyond 1,439 NOT in construction Total 10,865

  14. Questions

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