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TIMES modeling of energy, emission and climate scenarios

TIMES modeling of energy, emission and climate scenarios. Maryse Labriet, Richard Loulo u Amit Kanudia, Kathleen Vaillancourt Group for Research in Decision Analysis (GERAD) Montreal, Canada. International Energy Workshop 2005 Kyoto, July 5-7 , 2005.

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TIMES modeling of energy, emission and climate scenarios

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  1. TIMES modeling of energy, emission and climate scenarios Maryse Labriet, Richard Loulou Amit Kanudia, Kathleen Vaillancourt Group for Research in Decision Analysis (GERAD) Montreal, Canada International Energy Workshop 2005 Kyoto, July 5-7, 2005

  2. 1. World multi-regional TIMES model• Structure of the model• Characteristics of the base case 2. Exploring climate policies• Preferred mitigation options and costs• Role of sequestration• Emission vs concentration target3. Conclusion and further Outilne

  3. The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) • Linear programming & technology rich model for representing, optimizing and analyzing the production, conversion, trade and end-use of various forms of energy • Supply-demand partial equilibrium on energy markets • Perfect foresight & information : 2000-2100 • Maximization of Social Surplus, while satisfying final demands and exogenous constraints (eg. CO2 limits) • Multi-regional  15 linked regions: AFR, AUS, CAN, CHI, CSA, EEU, FSU, IND, JPN, MEA, MEX, ODA, SKO, USA, WEU 1. TIMES modeling

  4. Reference Energy System (RES) Climate module CO2CONCatm,up,loRADFORCINGTEMPatm,lo 1. TIMES modeling Ex: veh-km driven by car, tonnes aluminum, number apartments to heat, etc.

  5. Environmental constraint Reporting parameters Climate module conversion CO2-eq Non-CO2 gases: exogenous forcing 1. TIMES modeling ATM CONC (stock GtC) Linear 3 reservoirs - Atmosphere - Biosphere & ocean surface - Deep ocean CO2 emi (flow GtC) From TIMES (processes) RADIATIVE FORCING (W/m2) One log equation GLOBAL MEAN TEMP INCREASE (°C) Linear 2 reservoirs - Atm & ocean surface - Deep ocean Radiative forcing sensitivity to CO2 concentration: γ = 4.1 W/m2 Slightly smaller in TAR Temperature sensitivity to CO2 concentration: from 1 to 10°C?High uncertainty Equations Adapted from Nordhaus and Boyer (1999) Well documented Good approximation of those obtained from more complex climate models

  6. TIMES • Multinational work by members of ETSAP • Built on the best features of MARKAL and EFOM (B-U energy models) + new features (long term, variable length of time periods, vintaging of technologies, etc.) • New assumptions about input data: long-term energy services to satisfy, fossil and renewable resources, future technologies, specific policies • Endogenous international tradeof natural gas, LNG, crude oil and CO2 permits  competitive markets*  quantities and prices are endogenously computed* control of annual oil production quantities by OPEC, so as to approximate the oil production decisions of the cartel TIMES documentation: www.etsap.org/documentation.asp 1. TIMES modeling

  7. Energy and emissions in the Base case Inspired by Common POLES-IMAGE (CPI) base case • Moderate POP and GDP growth + technological progress • Continuing growth of primary energy use • Gas & coal become the dominant energy carriers after 2050 (power plants and industry sector) • Intermediate range of emissions (IPCC-SRES) 1. TIMES modeling

  8. Assessment of two types of climate policies World emission limits 2005-2100 (noted E550) • Emission paths as proposed by the literature (Innovation Modeling Comparison Project) to reach the long-term stabilization of atm. concentration at 550 ppm • Sensitivity: sequestration Single concentration limit in 2100 (noted C550) • Fixed at the level obtained in E550 NB: All regions participate in a world market of CO2 permits (full cooperation) 2. Climate policies

  9. Mitigation options (E550) Crucial role of CO2 removalSequestration Up to 79% of CO2 reduction in 2100 Terrestrial sinks and deep saline aquifersPower plants CCGT  CCGT-capture  coal-captureFuture role of coal in electricity generation Sensitivity Marginal cost x 5 in 2100 wo sequestrationUncertainties Potentiel? Costs? Permanence? Hydro Full potential with or without sequestrationNuclear Compensate for non-availabilityRenewable of CO2 sequestration Hydrogen productionTechnologies Higher production with CO2 sequestration Gas reforming BAU, with and wo CO2 sequestration Electrolysis only when CO2 sequestration not available 2. Climate policies COAL RNW Substitution in end-use sectorsRes/Com/Ind Coal/Gas/Oil  ElectricityTransport Alcohols from biomass, efficient vehicles Electricity in cases wo sequestration or with higher reduction targets (450ppm) NUC

  10. Emission vs concentration target (E550 vs C550) E550 = Emissions limited from 2005 to 2100. Exogenous path. C550 = CO2 concentration limited in 2100 only. Defined by E550. Sequestration not allowed here. 2. Climate policies Earlier actionHigher long-term emissionsSame final concentration Energy actionsFaster transition from fossil to non-emitting power plants (hydro and nuclear)Less renewable in LTLower substitution to electricity in end-use sectors in LT Higher flexibility in the timing of action

  11. Mitigation costs (preliminary) Results2050 = 19 to 70 $/tCO22080 =119 to 510 $/tCO22100 = up to > 2000 $/tCO2 due to end-use rigidities? Reduction of cost Concentration-oriented climate policy (green) higher flexibility in the timing Sequestration options (pink) replace expensive carbon-free electricity generation 2. Climate policies

  12. Final remarks New TIMES model• World multi-regional, long-term, technology rich model• Climate module (integrated assessment) Climate policy applications• Technology oriented modeling approach becoming a necessity for representing detailed policies• Abatement costs and cost-efficient technical options within the energy system• Different types of climate policies (emission path, concentration bound, tax, permits)• Regional reduction efforts (not presented here)  evaluate burden-sharing issues (permit allocations) 3. Conclusion

  13. Current developments Regular updates• Technologies, long-term evolution of demands Non-CO2 and non-energy GHGs (EMF-21)• Calibration of CH4 and N2O &Modeling of abatement options • Energy & non-energy sectors (eg. waste, manure, adipic & nitric acid industry)• Evaluation of multigas climate policies Stochastic programming(EMF-22)• Implementation and experimentation • Evaluation of climate policies under uncertain climate sensitivity (1.5°C to 4.5 °C? as high as 11°C?) 3. Conclusion

  14. Groupe d'Études et de Recherche en Analyse des Décisions (GERAD) 3000 chemin de la Côte Sainte Catherine Montréal (Qc), H3T 2A7, Canada Tel.: (+1) (514) 340-6053 ext.6033 Fax: (+1) (514) 340-5665 maryse.labriet@gerad.ca richard@haloa.ca Thank you

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