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Exploratory Statistical Analysis with the Data of Various Observations around Tangshan Well

This study explores the statistical analysis of groundwater level anomalies in Tangshan Well and their relationship to earthquake prediction. The data is analyzed using state-space modeling and time series analysis. The study also examines the influence of tectonic and non-tectonic factors on groundwater level changes.

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Exploratory Statistical Analysis with the Data of Various Observations around Tangshan Well

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  1. Exploratory Statistical Analysis with the Data of Various Observationsaround Tangshan Well L. Ma1, T. Wang2, B. Yin1,3, W. Wang1, J. Huang1, C. Zhang1,4 1. Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China. mali@seis.ac.cn 2. School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 3. Tangshan Earthquake Administration, Tangshan 063000, China 4. Laborary of Computational Geodynamics, Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

  2. Introduction In China the groundwater level changes is used as a precursor for earthquake prediction. However, the groundwater level records are affected by complex geophysical and hydrologic processes. The groundwater level changes are caused not only by tectonic factors, such as earth crust deformation, some of them may produce earthquake precursors, but also by non-tectonic factors, such as rainfalls, air pressure changes, earth tides, exploitation of mines and underground water, local non-tectonic stress and strain etc. The following slides show a number of examples in the study of water level anormalies.

  3. (From Paul G. Silver and Hiroshi Wakita, 1996 A search for earthquake precursors, Science, Vol. 273, 77-78.) Silver and Wakita searched the precursory anomalies for Izu-Oshima earthquake (1978). Anomalies appeared about 1 month before the main shock from data of groundwater level and water temperature, … M7.0

  4. (2003) Haibara well, Shizuoka, Japan Time series analysis using state-space modelling is applied with the signal of the groundwater level of Haibara Well by Kitagawa.

  5. (From N. Matsumoto, G. Kitagawa and E. A. Roeloffs, 2003) 28 earthquakes occurred following water level anomalies satisfying certain criteria, the water level anomalies constitute approximately 40 per cent of total identified anomalies.

  6. (From N. Matsumoto, G. Kitagawa and E. A. Roeloffs, 2003) The correspondence is obvious for the larger earthquakes in the residual of water level.

  7. Zhouzhi well Well as a broadband seismometer! Xian seismic station Qianxian seismic station • Figure 2 The recorded seismograms and water level fluctuation • Water level fluctuation of Zhouzhi Well, • Vertical component seismogram of Xian, • Vertical component seismogram of Qianxian (Parameters of the Arrive time of the M7.3 earthquake occurred in Honshu, Japan) Station name, Arrive time of P, Arrive time of S, Arrive time of surface wave, Δ, VP, VS, VL Xian Zhouzhi Qianxian ZhouzhiWell (From Shu Youliang and Zhang Shimin, 2003)

  8. Zhouzhi well Xian seismic station Qianxian seismic station • Figure 3 The calculated amplitude spectrum of the seismograms and water level fluctuation • The calculated amplitude spectrum for water level fluctuation of Zhouzhi Well, • The calculated amplitude spectrum for the vertical component seismogram of Xian, • The calculated amplitude spectrum for the vertical component seismogram of Qianxian (From Shu Youliang and Zhang Shimin, 2003)

  9. The induced fluctuation of water level in Zhouzhi well has the same arriving time as the P wave recorded in seismograms of the seismic station. The fluctuation of water level was due to extrusion of water by the elastic waves in the stratum.

  10. Observation from Tangshan well

  11. Historical Seismicity in Tangshan Area (Ms≥4.7) and the location of the wells

  12. 图1 唐山地区地质构造图 1 山地与平原分界线，2 第四系等厚度线，3 断裂及编号，4 背斜，5 向斜，6 地震地表破裂；F1 陡河断裂，F2 巍山-长山南坡断裂，F3 唐山-古冶断裂，F4 唐山-丰南断裂，F5 唐山断裂。 Figure 1 Geological structural map of the Tangshan area and stations. 1 The boundary of mountanious region and plain, 2 The thickness line of the quaternary system, 3 Faults and their number, 4 Anticline, 5 Syncline, 6 The surface rupture of the earthquakes; F1 Douhe fault, F2 Weishan-Changshan fault, F3 Tangshan-Guye fault, F4 Tangshan-Fengnan fault, F5 Tangshan fault. Seismic station Douhe Volume strain observation station in Zhaogezhuang Tangshan well Tangshandeformation station L: Leveling B: Baseline 42m 24m (From You Huichuan, et al., 2002)

  13. Columnar section of Tangshan well • Brief information of Tangshan well • Location: Park DaZhao,Tangshan city • Well depth: 286.6m • Water depth: 207m • Tube depth: 154m • Drilled: 1969.10.30 • Analog observed: 1981.01,SW40-1 • Digital observed: 2001.09.16, LN3

  14. Information of sampling interval for various observations in Tangshan well Note: W:groundwater lever, TW:water temperature, TG: deep water temperature, TA: air temperature in room, P: air pressure in room

  15. Tangshan well Tangshan well (From Compiler group of Thangshan earthquake in 1976, State Seismological Bureau, 1982,Thangshan earthquake in 1976, Seismological Press）

  16. Samling

  17. An example was analyzed: the Tangshan well data in the period from 2003.09.19 - 2005.04.14.

  18. For the various data of Tangshan well, the following multivariate regression modelwas considered: (1) The maximum-likelihood method is used to estimate the parametersand AIC criterion is used to determine the steps.

  19. Since the rainfall is the main factor that affects the change of groundwater level, the following simple model is considered first: (2)

  20. The atmospheric pressure response : (3) The earth tide response: (4)

  21. The periodic variations of the groundwater level: Then we obtain the final residual (5) The different responses and the residual are illustrated in the following figure.

  22. Another example for comparison: data from Tangshan deformation station 2003.01.01 - 2004.01.31

  23. The data of leveling and baseline for Tangshan deformation station

  24. Cosismic variations of groundwater level at Tangshan well

  25. Groundwater level Sumatra Groundwater temperature Chile Japan Three records of fluctuations in water level observed at Tangshan well, the above is groundwater level data, the below is groundwater temperature data.

  26. (2004 NEIC global 16 events M≥7.0, * local earthquake) The list of coseismic fluctuation of groundwater level in Tangshan well

  27. Power envelop

  28. Power envelop 17：00 18:00

  29. Power envelop

  30. Power envelop

  31. Power envelop

  32. ` Five examples of the coseismic varieties of four kinds of measurements RMS: Max. absolute root mean square of the recorded seismogram at Douhe, W: Max. amplitude of the water level function, T: Max. deep water temperature changes, Stain: Max. volumetric strain changes, Time: The time when the values reach the Max.

  33. From the five examples in the table: • The power envelop (absolute root mean square) of seismic • wave were calculated to estimate the magnitude of the energy transmitted at the Tangshan area. • 2) The maximum amplitudes and durations of the fluctuations in groundwater level are in proportion with the magnitude of the energy transmitted by seismic waves. • 3) Groundwater temperatures deep in the well always drop after the arrival of teleseismic waves, the value of temperature drop and durations before temperature recovery is proportional to the water level fluctuation. • 4) The volumetric strain also has the corresponding changes, but more evident for local events.

  34. Remarks for the exploratory analysis • The presentation just shows some observations to be • studied in future proposal of research project. • 2) We have accumulated very interesting and rich observational data of more than 30 years for theoretical research. • 3) We need more suitable model to analyze the data. State-Space model? • 4) We hope to do the field test in the Tangshan well, to confirm the analysis on dynamic mechanism of the groundwater level changes. • 5) Finally, can we recognize the earthquake precursors with more confidence?

  35. Reference • Beavan, J., K. Evans, S. Mousa and D. Simpson. (1991),Estimating aquifer parameters from analysis of forced fluctuations in well level: An example from the Nubian formation near Aswan, Egypt, 2, Poroelastic parameters, Journal of Geophysical Research, 96(B7), 12139-12160. • Blanchard, F. B., Byerly, P., (1935),Astudy of a well gauge as a seismograph,Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 25. • Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C., (1994),Time series analysis: forecasting and control, Vol. 3, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. • Brodsky, E.E., E. Roeloffs, D. Woodcock, I. Gall, and M. Manga, (2003),A mechanism for sustained groundwater pressure changes induced by distant earthquakes,J. Geophys. Res.，108(B8), 2390. • Cooper, H. H., (1965),The response of well–aquifer systems to seismic waves,Journal of Geophysial Research, 70(16), 3915-3926. • Department of Technology and Monitoring, State Seismological Bureau, (1988),Groundwater research-collection on methods of earthquake monitoring and prediction,Beijing: Seismological Press. (in Chinese) • Department of Technology and Monitoring, State Seismological Bureau, (1990),Groundwater and hydrochemical books-collection on practical application for methods of earthquake predicting,Beijing: Seismological Press. (in Chinese) • Editor group for Tangshan earthquakes in 1976, State Seismological Bereau. (1982), Tangshan Earthquake in 1976，Seismological Press. (in Chinese) • Groundwater analyzing group of State Seismological Bureau, (1985),Analysis to groundwater behavior and its affecting factors,Beijing: Seismological Press. (in Chinese) • Harte, D. (1998),Documentation for the statistical seismology library, School of Mathematical and Computing Sciences, UVW, Research Report, 10.

  36. Igarashi, G & Wakita, H. (1991),Tidal response and earthquake-related changes in the water level of deep wells, Journal of Geophysical Research, 96, 4269-4278. • Koizumi, N., Y. Kano, Y. Kitagawa, T.Sato, M. Takahashi, S. Nishimura,and R. Nishida. (1996) ,Groundwater anomalies associated with the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake, J. Phys. Earth., 44, 373-380. • Liu, L.B., X.Y. Zheng and G.R.Peng, (1986),Preliminary analysis of seismic-induced oscillation of the water level in Wali welll, Earthquakes, 5, 12-19.（in Chinese, with English abstract） • Liu, L. B., E. Roeloffs and X. Y. Zheng, (1989),Seismically induced water level fluctuations in the Wali well, Beijing, China,Journal of Geophysical Research, 94(B7), 9453-9462. • Marsaud, B., Mangin, A., Bel, F., (1993),Estimation descaracte´ristiques physiques d’aquife`res profonds a` partir de l’incidencebarome´trique et des mare´es terrestres,J. Hydrol. 144, 85–100. • Matsumoto, N., Kitagawa, G., Roeloffs, E. A., (2003), Hydrological response to earthquakes in the Haibara well, central Japan – I. Groundwater level changes revealed using state space decomposition of atmospheric pressure, rainfall and tidal responses, Geophysical Journal International, 155(3), 885-898. • Matsumoto, N., Roeloffs, E. A., (2003),Hydrological response to earthquakes in the Haibara well, central Japan – II. Possible mechanism inferred from time-varying hydraulic properties, Geophysical Journal International, 155(3), 899-913. • Montgomery, David R. and Manga Michael, (2003),Streamflow and water well responses to earthquakes, Science, 300(27), 2047-2049. Quilty, E. G., and Roeloffs, E. A., (1991), Removal of barometric pressure response from water level data,J. Geophys. Research, 96, 10,209-10,218. • Quilty, E., and E. Roeloffs, (1997),Water level changes in response to the December 20, 1994 earthquake near Parkfield, California,Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 87, 310-317. • Rexin, E. E., Oliver, J., Prentiss, D., (1962),Seiemically-induced fluctuation of the water level in the Nunn-Bush well in Milwaukee, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 52(1), 17-25.

  37. Roeloffs, E., (1998),Persistent water level changes in a well near Parkfield, California, due to local and distant earthquakes,J. Geophys. Res., 103 (B1), 869-889. • Silver, P. G. and Wakita H.,(1995)A search for earthquake precursors, Science, 273, 77-78. • Shu, Y. L. and Zhang, S. M., (2003),A comparative study of digital recording of seismic water-level fluctuations in Zhouzhi deep borehole with seismographic recordings, Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research, 24(5), 26-31. (in Chinese with English abstract). • Wakita, H. (1975),Water wells as possible indicators of tectonic strain, Science, 189, 553-555. • Wakita, H., (1996),Geochemical challenge to earthquake prediction,Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. UAS, 93, 3781-3786. • Wang, C.M., Che, Y.T., Wan, D.K. et.al., (1988),Study of groundwater micro-behavior, Beijing: Seismological Press. (in Chinese) • William W. S. Wei,(1989),Time series analysis: univariate and multivariate methods, Addison-Wesley. • Yi, D. H., (2002),Data analysis and the application of Eviews, China Statistics Press. (in Chinese). • You, H.C.,X.W. Xu, J.P. Wu, Z.Q.He,(2002),Study on the relationship between shallow and deep structures in the 1976 tangshan earthquake area. Seismology and Geology. 24(4),571-582 • Zhang, Z. G., Wan, D. K., Dong, S. Y., (1998), Research and application of comparison between water level vibration and face wave, Earthquake, 18(4), 399-404. (in Chinese with English abstract). • Zhang, Z. G., Zhang, S. X., Zheng, Y. Z., Wang, H. S., (2002),Analysis on the ability of groundwater level for recording seismic wave in Shangxi Water 2 and Yue 42 wells, Tangshan, China, Northwestern Seismological Journal, 24(3), 262-266.(in Chinese with English abstract).

  38. Thank you!

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