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Climate Modeling and Impact Assessment in Asian Small Island States

This project focuses on utilizing climate models to assess impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptations in Asian Small Island States. It involves historical data analysis, projection of future scenarios, and addressing obstacles in data availability and model evaluations.

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Climate Modeling and Impact Assessment in Asian Small Island States

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  1. ASIAN-SMALL ISLAND STATE GROUP Countries: Mongolia (AS06) Thailand and Indo China (AS07) Sri Lanka (AS12) Philippines, Indonesia (AS21) China (AS25) Fiji Islands (SIS09) Bangladesh, India, Pakistan (APN2002-12)

  2. Themes • Sri Lanka: Tea and Coconut Plantation • Mongolia: Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock • Thailand, Indo China: Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological Events • Philippines and Indonesia: Forest and Water Resources • China: Desertification, food security, water resources • Fiji Islands: Coastal resources, agriculture, water resources and infra-structure • Pakistan, India, Bangladesh: Agriculture, hidrology

  3. Common Approach Time series non-climatic national and regional data (population, water demand, food demand, land demand, GDP, crop productivity; etc.) Historical impact of extreme climate events: Lesson learnt Non-climatic scenarios (Global/ Regional) Emission Scenarios (Global) GCM, RCM, SCENGEN, SDSM Synthetic Climatic Scenarios Projection of national/local non-climatic data (check the consistency with IPCC TAR) Daily Climatic Data Generator Interpolation of climatic data in the study areas for present and the future (Kriging technique) Impact Models Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation in the study area in the present time, 2020, 2050 and 2100

  4. CLIMATE MODELS MAGICC-SCENGEN Resolution Area coverage Monthly data (limited climatic varaibles) SDSM Availability of good quality observed daily climatic data Availability of predictors data from NCEP, ECMWF (1961-1990) GCM Resolution In most cases only monthly data available RCM Time consuming and computer intensive It may need further training for running the models Monthly/daily Obstacles

  5. Obstacles (Continued) • Models for evaluating impact: • Crop Models: Coconut (Sri Lanka) etc. • Hydrology models • Data: • Sparse climate/weather stations network • Data quality ~ quality control techniques • Literatures: • Limited number of literatures in the country

  6. Specific Actions • Climate Models • New version of MAGICC-SCENGEN should be made available for the team • Extended region coverage (include SEA) • Add more climatic variables • Add regional non-climatic data (population,GDP etc) • Some countries may collaborate to run RCM (or request Tyndall Centre, Hadley Centre, CSIRO) • e.g. PRECIS-RCM or GCM-CSIROMx2 double nesting run in super computer for a number of regions ~ AS07, AS12, AS21 • Provide written guideline for accessing and downloading climatic data from DDC and other sites • Project may assigned someone to compile relevant data from DDC and distribute to country team

  7. Specific Actions • Hands on training based on specific needs of the countries • e.g. Training for running RCM (PRECIS) • Provide team with relevant impact models (CERES, APSIM, FORESTGAP etc.) • Allow each country team to visit other country for learning and sharing experiences in addressing the common problems • Applying interpolation techniques, generating daily climatic data from monthly means, crop modelling, hydrology model (AS07 and AS21) etc.

  8. Specific Actions • Allow Mentors to visit countries for trouble shooting • Develop a system which allow the team to communicate with other team or mentors for solving the problems (communication system) • Provide site in the project web where the team could access and download references and relevant papers/articles or materials for the projects

  9. Useful on-Going Inputs • Helping team in addressing some common problems (e.g. downscaling problem, addressing uncertainties, developing climate scenarios, accessing data and information etc) • Keep the team inform about the progress of climate change science (exposing to tools) and international events (related workshops or trainings) • AIACC allow the team to access to limited sources/fund for a collaboration in the region, or to attend short trainings or workshops relevant for the projects (e.g. AS07 and AS21) • Mentors assist the team for producing papers or articles for international journals • As reviewers, editors, co-author)

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