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What Nexus?

Energy boom and groundwater bust: Mexico’s water-energy nexus with implications for the U.S. border region. Presented at First Western Forum on Energy and Water Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, 22 March 2007.

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What Nexus?

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  1. Energy boom and groundwater bust: Mexico’s water-energy nexus with implications for the U.S. border region Presented at First Western Forum on Energy and Water Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, 22 March 2007

  2. Energy Boom and Groundwater BustMexico’s Water-Energy Nexus with Implications for the U.S. Border RegionChristopher ScottUniversity of ArizonaDept. of Geography & Regional Development, andUdall Center for Studies in Public Policy

  3. What Nexus? • Resources – water and energy are coupled in fundamental ways • Management – of water or energy in isolation likely has (unforeseen) consequences for the other resource • Sustainability – policy tools for water, energy need to be mutually reinforcing

  4. Groundwater Inter-basin transfers Municipal supply Wastewater, reuse reservoir storage evaporative demand energy for pumping lift, distribution treatment, distribution treatment, desalination Hydropower Thermo-power cooling Water-Energy Coupling

  5. Water use Energy demand Water demand Energy use Resource Feedbacks

  6. De-coupled Management… • Water management options tend to externalize energy implications, e.g.: • ~70 billion kWh/yr for U.S. water and wastewater • projected to increase 20% in 15 years • greater if “desalination roadmap” is followed • water represents 1/3 of municipal energy budgets • groundwater irrigation is a large % of total electricity demand, e.g., in Mexico • 10% in Sonora state • 17% in Chihuahua state • 30% in Zacatecas state

  7. … Needs to be [Re-] Coupled • Energy management needs to internalize water implications: • increased hydropower reliance entails sectoral water reallocation • cooling water salt concentrations a major challenge (e.g., Phoenix’s Palo Verde uses high TDS effluent)

  8. Sustainability and Policy • Behind groundwater boom-bust cycles (e.g., Mexico) are energy supply and pricing. Conversely: • Energy supply and pricing offer tools for sustainable groundwater management

  9. 26,000 Global Groundwater Boom

  10. … Leading to Groundwater BustNumber of Wells in MexicoGW Irrigation in India

  11. ACUIFEROS SOBREEXPLOTADOS ABATIMIENTO MEDIO EN m/año 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 TAB.-ALDMA ASCENCION CUAUHTEMOC F.M.-V. AHUMADA CASAS GRANDES PARRAL-V. DEL V. JUAREZ(Z. Urbana) BAJA BABICORA CHIH-SACRAMENTO JIMENEZ-CAMARGO MEOQUI-DELICIAS

  12. Juárez 11 29 23 12. Palomas 28 33. Valle de Juárez 10. Samalayuca 1. Ascención 25 27 18 8 17 26 6. Casas Grandes 21. Villa Ahumada Flores Magón Nuevo Casas Grandes 13 24 4. San Buenaventura 19 14 20 58 Ojinaga 7. Sauz Encinillas 3. Baja Babícora 2 37 42 16 22 15 59 41 Madera 39 30. Chihuahua Sacramento 47 5. Cuauhtémoc 36 Chihuahua 55 31. Meoqui Delicias 60 Cuauhtémoc 35. Tabaloapa Aldama Meoqui 40 9. Laguna de Mexicanos 51 49 Delicias Saucillo 52 38 50 Camargo 44 46 32. Jimenez Camargo 54 45 53 43 Hidalgo del Parral Jimenez 56 34. Parral Valle de Verano 48 57 E X P L I C A C I O N No. Y NOMBRE DEL ACUIFERO 1. Ascención SOBREEXPLOTADO CABECERA MUNICIPAL EN EQUILIBRIO Jimenez SUBEXPLOTADO ZONA CON DECRETO DE VEDA Este plano es esquemático SOBREEXPLOTACION LOCAL MANIFIESTA EN CONOS DE EXPLOTACION COMISION NACIONAL DEL AGUA Programa Hidráulico de Gran Visión C H I H U A H U A 1996 - 2020. ACUIFEROS Y ZONAS DE VEDA Figura 8-2 Fecha: API DHTA PROINFRA nov 96'. 1 VALLE DE JUAREZ 2 ASCENCION 3 CASAS GRANDES 4 F.M.-V. AHUMADA 5 BAJA BABICORA 6 CUAUHTEMOC 7 CHIHUAHUA-SACRAMENTO 8 TABALAOPA-ALDAMA 9 DELICIAS 10 JIMENEZ-CAMARGO 11 PARRAL-EL VERANO DISTRIBUCIÓN DE LOS ACUIFEROS SOBREEXPLOTADOS

  13. Groundwater-Energy Supply Nexus • Groundwater overdraft and multiple impacts are driven by electricity supply and pricing

  14. Increasing Volume, Declining Share

  15. High Energy % for GW Pumping

  16. Ag. Groundwater Pumped, 2005(derived from energy data; national total ≈ 17.6 km3/year)

  17. Aquifer Overdraft

  18. GW Sustainability Initiatives • 1992 - water rights, titling wells • Registro Público de Derechos de Agua (REPDA) • annual concessioned volume • water meters, but monitoring or compliance inadequate • Water resource (river basin) master plans • bans on new wells in overdrafted aquifers • recharge programs (controversial, runoff impacts) • groundwater user committees

  19. Ag. GW Share of Total Water Titled

  20. GW Titled ≠ GW Pumped

  21. 2002 – Mexico seized the GW-energy nexus opportunity • Rural Energy Law (Ley de Energía para el Campo) primarily to level the playing field for Mexican agricultureunder NAFTA • Power tariff structure modified with medium-term subsidy support • Sliding-scale ag. power tariff with threshold fixed by energy equivalent of groundwater volume titled

  22. 2003 – lost the thread? … with lower night-time ag. tariff, but ineffective controls on volume or area irrigated • Example: Chihuahua tariffs • US$ 1.00 = Mex$ 10.80 32% difference

  23. Growth, night ag. power consumption

  24. Shift to Night-time Irrigation

  25. Financially, A Losing Proposition?

  26. … But Overall Profits High

  27. GW-Based Intensive Ag. Production • Exports to U.S., Canada, Pacific rim • Expanding Mexican domestic market • Costa de Hermosillo (Sonora) grapes • Cuauhtemoc (Chihuahua) apples • Low water productivity in basic grains (wheat, corn) competing with high productivity horticulture

  28. High Per-User Volumes (Titled)

  29. Mexico’s Virtual Water Exports to the U.S. are Groundwater

  30. Mexico’s Virtual Water Imports are Rainwater (w supplemental irrigation) • Corn… despite the ethanol-tortilla debacle • Wheat • Grain-fed beef • Other animal products • Deciduous fruit

  31. Virtual Water Failure of the Virtual Water Argument: possible explanations using the case study of Mexico and NAFTA – manuscript by Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers

  32. Conclusions • Boom (partial collapse) of groundwater in northern Mexico fueled by electricity supply and pricing • CNA (water) and CFE (electricity) at institutional loggerheads • Energy supply management a promising tool for water demand management

  33. Future Challenges • Should Mexico seek to manage virtual exports of groundwater? How? • Urban growth in (northern) Mexico will increasingly appropriate groundwater • Water-energy nexus for desalination?

  34. Thank you. Christopher Scott cascott@email.arizona.edu (520) 626-4393 Acknowledgements • Comisión Nacional del Agua • Comisión Federal de Electricidad • Tushaar Shah, International Water Management Institute • Ana María Caliz, Tendencias – Consultores en Economía • Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers, Harvard University

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